Carvers Gap Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 Sure looks like a severe signal showing up between 200-240 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Sure looks like a severe signal showing up between 200-240 hours. Yeah, it sure does man. I like tracking severe but am not a Fan, if that makes sense. Lol. That's Jax and Jeff's cup of Tea. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 probably a decent approx. Severe Wx doesn't get outlooks so far out. Rest of this week prolly hangs up to our west. Next week could get scrappy. Either way heavy rain may become a risk. s 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Sure looks like a severe signal showing up between 200-240 hours. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 06:22 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 06:22 PM After the severe window, both the 12z GEM and Euro have a fairly pronounce trough sliding through the East...and maybe more than one. That will also have to be watched. That type of setup can get squirrely. Really, the severe setup followed by cold/snow showers is not without precedent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 06:24 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 06:24 PM I still think we are likely in a repeat of the same cycle which persisted through much of winter. 2-3 weeks of cold, followed by 2-3 weeks of warm weather, followed by a false start back to cold, and then finally the trough over the East amplifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Tuesday at 09:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:33 PM Yuck, cold and wet spring incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted Tuesday at 11:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:01 PM Anyone at the Knox Co MRX SkyWarn similar right now?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Wednesday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:36 PM I hope you enjoyed the Skywarn talk! I'm down in Chatty so I was not there. However, I attended an NWS emergency manager talk in Chatty on Monday that covers the new SPC products. As for the rest of March seems like we might get into a couple cooler weeks starting mid-month. That's more valid East or upper half of the Tennessee Valley. Mid-South could remain warmer. Such a pattern leaves the door open for Mountain snow showers. First we have to get through the mid-term blowtorch. I don't see a reason to forecast a cool depressing spring though. Some back and forth like Carvers mentions seems reasonable. Warm weeks, I'd like to add side orders of southwest flow aloft and CAPE. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted Wednesday at 08:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:35 PM Remind me again where the mid south is isn’t it where Mississippi and west Tennessee and Arkansas are or parts of it I have also heard that it encompasses middle Tennessee as well not sure if all of it or parts of it or what . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Thursday at 01:53 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:53 AM You got it! I think of the Mid-South starting with the MEM CWA, then add West Kentucky. Might some add to the halfway point of KY/TN. Sometimes for chasing I'll fudge it to northwest Alabama. Vague boundaries help hedge forecasts, to be honest haha. Note that all of Mississippi and all of all of Alabama are considered Deep South too. East Tennessee into northeast Alabama I'll often refer to as the Tennessee Valley. Of course the River goes on downstream curling north into the Ohio River, but at that point I'm talking Mid-South. Speaking of all this.. Mid-month cold could start Mid-South. However it should eventually have a little longer stay in the Valley. Keep in mind cold in March is nothing like cold in Feb. Shouldn't be too bad. At the same time, Mountains could get late season snow showers a couple times. Moderator / Admin: Feel free to move this and/or copy to one of the resources threads. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted Thursday at 02:52 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:52 AM Gotcha thank you nrg Jeff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 09:35 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 09:35 PM Ensembles are honking for a pretty good cold outbreak mid-month. Duration TBD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Saturday at 01:16 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:16 AM Grade this winter please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Saturday at 12:50 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 12:50 PM The 6z GFS was interesting for Thursday. Both the 0z GEM and 0z Euro are still showing 1-2 amplification events incoming around mid-month and just after. This could be a WILD swing given the temps we have seen during the past few days. Highs could be 40-45 degrees colder at TRI than what we are seeing and will see this weekend. Wind chills in the mid-upper teens would not surprise me at some point between d5-16. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted Saturday at 05:18 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:18 PM FWIW, is it to much to ask for one decent late snow? Ensemble Average 10 day snowfall Individual Ensemble 10 day Runs Select City Temp Cross Sections 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted Saturday at 07:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:50 PM http:// https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=27050180507917633&id=100000571471325&http_ref=eyJ0cyI6MTc3MjkxMjgzOTAwMCwiciI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuZmFjZWJvb2suY29tXC9zaGFyZVwvcFwvMTdDNUJUN2RFcFwvP21pYmV4dGlkPXd3WElmciJ9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted Saturday at 07:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:51 PM Day five slight risk for west and also middle Tennessee also surrounding states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Saturday at 07:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:58 PM Looking at forecasts temps. Looks like 1-2 cold days then right back to 60-70 range. I’m good with that if it holds. Just glancing blows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted Saturday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:17 PM 60 and 70 degree temps are okay with me as well it is way too early for 80 degree temps . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 05:30 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:30 PM Man, these are some cold operational runs. To be clear so there isn't confusion. The cold I am looking at begins around mid-month, say roughly around 200 hours. 12z models are quite cold w/ snow chances embedded - both the 12z GEM and GFS. I don't see any big storms(potential is probably embedded within ensembles as Knox has shown), but snow could be in the air on more than one occasion. The second half of March is not looking warm IMHO. Again, this looks like a continuation of the pattern.....cold -> record or near record warmth -> small cold shot -> more warmth -> big cold shot. We have cycled through that pattern already twice. I think the chances of that occurring a third time are increasing, but w/ a Spring twist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted yesterday at 05:55 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:55 PM 52 & 49 next Monday & Tuesday going to hurt. Thankful it appears to be a quick shot that does not last long. Guess it’s time for the folk lore winters. Is it locust up first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago They 18z GFS is an impressive snow storm for middle and western areas around 210. It will almost assuredly change, but it is an example of what some of us have been watching. It looks like 2-3 strong amplifications beginning around St Patrick's Day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 21 hours ago, Matthew70 said: 52 & 49 next Monday & Tuesday going to hurt. Thankful it appears to be a quick shot that does not last long. Guess it’s time for the folk lore winters. Is it locust up first? There's a pretty good chance you see colder reading's than that as some very cold air lurks to our North in Canada. I think around here anyway , the first is called something like Sarvis.?. After a type of Tree I think. Second, redbud, third Dogwood then Blackberry. Nothing to tat really of course. I've witnessed years with more than that many cold snaps and some less. The Dogwood one "may" have some merit; if you tie in a Spiritual Component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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