Spring 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Sure looks like a severe signal showing up between 200-240 hours.  

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Sure looks like a severe signal showing up between 200-240 hours.  

Yeah, it sure does man. I like tracking severe but am not a Fan, if that makes sense. Lol. That's Jax and Jeff's cup of Tea. 

[nrgjeff]

probably a decent approx. Severe Wx doesn't get outlooks so far out. Rest of this week prolly hangs up to our west. Next week could get scrappy. Either way heavy rain may become a risk.

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[GBOVolz]

Sure looks like a severe signal showing up between 200-240 hours.  

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[Carvers Gap]

After the severe window, both the 12z GEM and Euro have a fairly pronounce trough sliding through the East...and maybe more than one.  That will also have to be watched.  That type of setup can get squirrely.  Really, the severe setup followed by cold/snow showers is not without precedent.

[Carvers Gap]

I still think we are likely in a repeat of the same cycle which persisted through much of winter.  2-3 weeks of cold, followed by 2-3 weeks of warm weather, followed by a false start back to cold, and then finally the trough over the East amplifies.

[Matthew70]

Yuck, cold and wet spring incoming

[GBOVolz]

Anyone at the Knox Co MRX SkyWarn similar right now?


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[nrgjeff]

I hope you enjoyed the Skywarn talk! I'm down in Chatty so I was not there. However, I attended an NWS emergency manager talk in Chatty on Monday that covers the new SPC products. 

As for the rest of March seems like we might get into a couple cooler weeks starting mid-month. That's more valid East or upper half of the Tennessee Valley. Mid-South could remain warmer. Such a pattern leaves the door open for Mountain snow showers. First we have to get through the mid-term blowtorch.

I don't see a reason to forecast a cool depressing spring though. Some back and forth like Carvers mentions seems reasonable. Warm weeks, I'd like to add side orders of southwest flow aloft and CAPE. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Remind me again where the mid south is isn’t it where Mississippi and west Tennessee and Arkansas are or parts of it I have also heard that it encompasses middle Tennessee as well not sure if all of it or parts of it or what


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[nrgjeff]

You got it! I think of the Mid-South starting with the MEM CWA, then add West Kentucky. Might some add to the halfway point of KY/TN. Sometimes for chasing I'll fudge it to northwest Alabama. Vague boundaries help hedge forecasts, to be honest haha.

Note that all of Mississippi and all of all of Alabama are considered Deep South too.

East Tennessee into northeast Alabama I'll often refer to as the Tennessee Valley. Of course the River goes on downstream curling north into the Ohio River, but at that point I'm talking Mid-South.

Speaking of all this.. Mid-month cold could start Mid-South. However it should eventually have a little longer stay in the Valley. Keep in mind cold in March is nothing like cold in Feb. Shouldn't be too bad. At the same time, Mountains could get late season snow showers a couple times. 

Moderator / Admin: Feel free to move this and/or copy to one of the resources threads. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Gotcha thank you nrg Jeff


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