Spring 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Sure looks like a severe signal showing up between 200-240 hours.  

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Sure looks like a severe signal showing up between 200-240 hours.  

Yeah, it sure does man. I like tracking severe but am not a Fan, if that makes sense. Lol. That's Jax and Jeff's cup of Tea. 

[nrgjeff]

probably a decent approx. Severe Wx doesn't get outlooks so far out. Rest of this week prolly hangs up to our west. Next week could get scrappy. Either way heavy rain may become a risk.

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[GBOVolz]

Sure looks like a severe signal showing up between 200-240 hours.  

.

[Carvers Gap]

After the severe window, both the 12z GEM and Euro have a fairly pronounce trough sliding through the East...and maybe more than one.  That will also have to be watched.  That type of setup can get squirrely.  Really, the severe setup followed by cold/snow showers is not without precedent.

[Carvers Gap]

I still think we are likely in a repeat of the same cycle which persisted through much of winter.  2-3 weeks of cold, followed by 2-3 weeks of warm weather, followed by a false start back to cold, and then finally the trough over the East amplifies.