Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Voyager]

52 minutes ago, canderson said:

I moved to PA in 2006. I cannot recall a more favorable setup here than tomorrow for a QLCS packing 70-90 mph winds, hail and perhaps a tornado closer to the MD border. 

The fact it will be slower and later than it looked like a few days ago makes it even worse. It’s going to hit right after peak heating and soaring dews.

When a Texas native, who is used to severe events, is deeply concerned about the set-up and potential for this one, it really makes me take notice. 

[canderson]

24 minutes ago, Voyager said:

When a Texas native, who is used to severe events, is deeply concerned about the set-up and potential for this one, it really makes me take notice. 

Put it this way: If that setup was in Dallas today it’d be a high risk and you’d probably see stovepipe tornadoes. 

[anotherman]

I moved to PA in 2006. I cannot recall a more favorable setup here than tomorrow for a QLCS packing 70-90 mph winds, hail and perhaps a tornado closer to the MD border. 
The fact it will be slower and later than it looked like a few days ago makes it even worse. It’s going to hit right after peak heating and soaring dews.

What time are we looking at currently?

[canderson]

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

What time are we looking at currently?

I’m bad at timing lol but rush hour give or take an hour. The NAM is like 7 pm but they tend to have these events later than they actually are. 

[canderson]

Caveat seems to always applies up here though - cape isn’t that high. If we don’t clear out and get a few rounds of early afternoon showers and even t-storms it realy ramps down the ability for a qlcs to sustain itself here. 

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

Caveat seems to always applies up here though - cape isn’t that high. If we don’t clear out and get a few rounds of early afternoon showers and even t-storms it realy ramps down the ability for a qlcs to sustain itself here. 

A severe weather expert met in the MA sub (high risk) still has a few reservations about the extent and level of severe tomorrow. I hope his concerns play out.

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

A severe weather expert met in the MA sub (high risk) still has a few reservations about the extent and level of severe tomorrow. I hope his concerns play out.

I’ll have to go read that new thread I guess. C MD down into the Carolinas - especially S of MD is in the big time tornado crosshairs. 

[canderson]

To today - strong east winds are so rare 

[Summit Snow]

https://www.tornadotalk.com/may-31-1998-pa-ny-tornado-outbreak/

For those new to PA I remember this like yesterday. Those three days were off the charts in terms of storm potential. I was Tornado warned twice on 6/2 with the second warning being the Lake Carey tornado that killed two and injured dozens.

[Storm Clouds]

Are you kidding me?? These morons and clowns…look what S and S said about tomorrow! 
 

PEOPLE ALIVE AND WELL TODAY WILL DIE IN THESE STORMS TOMORROW…

Talk about starting hype and panic…do people actually follow these idiots?

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, Summit Snow said:

https://www.tornadotalk.com/may-31-1998-pa-ny-tornado-outbreak/

For those new to PA I remember this like yesterday. Those three days were off the charts in terms of storm potential. I was Tornado warned twice on 6/2 with the second warning being the Lake Carey tornado that killed two and injured dozens.

I remember reading about this back in that 2012 storm we had. Crazy that happened up here. 

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, canderson said:

Put it this way: If that setup was in Dallas today it’d be a high risk and you’d probably see stovepipe tornadoes. 

Wow...

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Caveat seems to always applies up here though - cape isn’t that high. If we don’t clear out and get a few rounds of early afternoon showers and even t-storms it realy ramps down the ability for a qlcs to sustain itself here. 

I did make a couple posts on Facebook for friends and family. First one was the graphical maps of the threats as depicted this morning. The second one quoted you anonymously (but indicating a friend's thoughts) a so as not to plagiarize, but to convey the potential severity of the event. 

Hopefully it's not as bad as what's possible. My caveat...whenever I post about storms (severe, snow, ice, etc) I usually end up jinxing it and eating crow.

[canderson]

One of the best posts you’ll read about this event 

 

 

[Voyager]

8 minutes ago, canderson said:

One of the best posts you’ll read about this event 

 

 

I just finished reading it, and it's an excellent write up. One thing, though, is that the biggest threat seems (per his post anyway) is south of the M-D Line.

If I'm deciphering it right, things might not be as bad up this way as previously thought?

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I just finished reading it, and it's an excellent write up. One thing, though, is that the biggest threat seems (per his post anyway) is south of the M-D Line.

If I'm deciphering it right, things might not be as bad up this way as previously thought?

I should have mentioned that - yea he’s writing for VA/MD specifically. We don’t have the prime atmospheric conditions VA will have. But that’s mostly for tornadic activity. The QLCS will mix down major winds. LWX mentions this in this afternoon’s write up which I have to say is much more in-depth than CTP’s. Granted however their entire coverage area is in the mod risk. CTP’s isn’t and they have a more dynamic atmosphere than we do. I don’t see tornadoes as much of a thing north of BWI. 
 

Once any earlier low stratus are scoured out, expect ample
diurnal heating as temperatures rise into the upper 60s to low
70s. Prolonged south to southeasterly flow should also raise dew
points into the upper 50s to low 60s. The seasonably warm/moist
low-levels coupled by strong forcing aloft and cyclonic turning
of the winds with height will make for a very active convective
day. While the degree of vertical shear is impressive on its own
(0-6 km values around 55 to 65 knots), this comes with more than
sufficient buoyancy levels as surface-based CAPE values push
into the 500 to 750 J/kg range. The shear/instability
combination will be conducive to supercell development,
particularly for any discrete cells that form ahead of a likely
squall line. Additionally, the degree of deep-layer shear should
make this more of a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) which
will be capable of tornadogenesis. Aside from any tornado risk,
the strong cloud-bearing level winds should easily mix down in
convective downdrafts. With 850-700 mb winds around 60-70 knots,
any of this higher momentum air being transferred to the surface
could yield surface wind gusts into the 65 to 75 mph range.
Thus, SPC has a broad area of significant damaging wind
potential (45-74%) advertised from I-81 eastward in their latest
outlook.

[MAG5035]

2 hours ago, Summit Snow said:

https://www.tornadotalk.com/may-31-1998-pa-ny-tornado-outbreak/

For those new to PA I remember this like yesterday. Those three days were off the charts in terms of storm potential. I was Tornado warned twice on 6/2 with the second warning being the Lake Carey tornado that killed two and injured dozens.

I was just playing around with the archived radar data that’s on RadarScope Pro the other day. Here’s that tornado, that’s a pretty pronounced velocity couplet for 1998 NEXRAD data. It was roughly reading 110-115mph gate to gate on the data. 

 

[canderson]

10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I was just playing around with the archived radar data that’s on RadarScope Pro the other day. Here’s that tornado, that’s a pretty pronounced velocity couplet for 1998 NEXRAD data. It was roughly reading 110-115mph gate to gate on the data. 

 

Thanks for this. Remarkable this occurred up here back then. Today? Much more likely with climate changes.