Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Yardstickgozinya]

Big potential Monday creeping into southeast and south central Pennsylvania with a negatively tilted system.  
  ...DISCUSSION...
   Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will
   develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/#

 

[mahantango#1]

Found this on facebook I didn't know NWS was doing a storm survey.

Nepa Storm Chasers 

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Dauphin County Tornado Update 

Some followup on the tornado warned storm in Dauphin County on Wednesday. I have actually drive on the exact road in the exact rural area it struck and there's a solid chance it missed every home as it's extremely rural in Shermans Dale and Blain, PA.

The storm would have only been on the ground for a short time maybe 10-15 mins, 3-8 miles max before lifting. This may have hit a house or just tore up some woods but there was clearly evidence to suggest it was causing damage.

I clipped a photo of the debris ball with the overlay of the general area it would have been. It's all thick woods and very rural homes. I personally stayed in a cabin about 2-4 miles from the exact spot this storm happened at. I'm very curious to see what the NWS survey team determines when they conclude their investigation.

Anyway, thought this may be interesting to everyone. I'll update when I found out.

- Espresso 

[mahantango#1]

US National Weather Service State College PA 

Favorites ·sdptoreoSnma997a669u41tg6fh6f8h58f818c304mh251m1am1606753415 ·

 

Ready to hop on the temperature roller coaster?!

Temperatures will climb in to the 60s again by Monday and then plummet into the 30s on Tuesday.

'Tis the season for BIG temperature swings.

[mahantango#1]

2 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Big potential Monday creeping into southeast and south central Pennsylvania with a negatively tilted system.  
  ...DISCUSSION...
   Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will
   develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/#

 

I wonder if this will expand a little more north in the coming days?

[ChescoWx]

With yesterday's 0.5" of snow, we have now recorded measurable snow in each of the last 5 months from November through March. This is the 6th time that has happened in the last 23 seasons here in East Nantmeal Township. While we have recorded measurable April snow 7 times since 2004 (including last April) we have never recorded snow in 6 consecutive months. No snow in our future at least till Monday night but below normal temperatures both today and tomorrow before near normal (low 50's) highs on Sunday. We warm briefly to well above normal Monday before a strong cold front crosses the area with some potential for severe weather and another potential change to some wet snow before ending on Monday night. Unseasonably cold weather through much of next week appears likely.

[Itstrainingtime]

35 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I wonder if this will expand a little more north in the coming days?

Pretty good chance I'd think. It already moved appreciably north since yesterday's outlook. 

[canderson]

49 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I wonder if this will expand a little more north in the coming days?

Absolutely 

[Itstrainingtime]

Low of 28 this morning in Maytown. Family down outside of Lewes DE recorded 1.4" of snow yesterday after reaching 87 on Wednesday. 

Edit: I had to follow up, at my nephew's house about 3 miles west of Lewes, 33.8" of snow has fallen this winter. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 27.  Classic March days ahead.

[Yardstickgozinya]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

I wonder if this will expand a little more north in the coming days?

 With such a large 30% area already highlighted 4 days out on a forecasted nagatively tilted system coming out of the Mississippi valley while we're already on a bit of a convective heater gets me all hot in the trousers. . That said, the severe outlooks being placed so far east and mediocre surface temps warrant some bust concerns. If this forecast were to verify the main thing I'll be watching on Monday is the proximity and time of convective initiation, low level lapse rates, and moisture return. If we can score some juicy overlapping, there and some of the other parameters hold true, it should be one hell of a day, not far from home. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

26 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 27.  Classic March days ahead.

One man's classic is another man's diarrhea. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

20 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

 With such a large 30% area already highlighted 4 days out on a forecasted nagatively tilted system coming out of the Mississippi valley while we're already on a bit of a convective heater gets me all hot in the trousers. . That said, the severe outlooks being placed so far east and mediocre surface temps warrant some bust concerns. If this forecast were to verify the main thing I'll be watching on Monday is the proximity and time of convective initiation, low level lapse rates, and moisture return. If we can score some juicy overlapping, there and some of the other parameters hold true, it should be one hell of a day, not far from home. 

  I think a consequence of this early convectively, active pattern will be a relax followed by a well timed vigorous return. I also haven't given up on winter. I still think the old man shows his face during one of the swings. 

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

I wonder if this will expand a little more north in the coming days?

There's professional discussion now of  severe weather, making it the whole way up into New England. It also looks to me like a little backside snow could possibly make it into the discussion as we move forward although I haven't heard it mentioned anywhere. 

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

There's professional discussion now of  severe weather, making it the whole way up into New England. It also looks to me like a little backside snow could possibly make it into the discussion as we move forward although I haven't heard it mentioned anywhere. 

Oh please no...

No more salty roads.

[mahantango#1]

28 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Oh please no...

No more salty roads.

You got to keep that tanker spit-shined.

[canderson]

Wind is whipping into the upper 30s already. Will be windy until at least Tuesday evening. 

[canderson]

Finally issued wind advisories. Might as well just keep posted through Wednesday. 
 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
228 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

PAZ012-019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063-
140630-
/O.CON.KCTP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-260314T1500Z/
Northern Clinton-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-
Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Including the cities of Renovo, State College, Huntingdon,
Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, McConnellsburg,
Chambersburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte,
Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville,
Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg,
Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, and Carlisle
228 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Clinton, Southern Centre, Huntingdon, Mifflin, Juniata,
  Fulton, Franklin, Tioga, Lycoming, Sullivan, Union, Snyder,
  Montour, Northumberland, Columbia, Perry, Dauphin, Schuylkill,
  Lebanon, and Cumberland Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

13 minutes ago, canderson said:

Finally issued wind advisories. Might as well just keep posted through Wednesday. 
 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
228 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

PAZ012-019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063-
140630-
/O.CON.KCTP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-260314T1500Z/
Northern Clinton-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-
Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Including the cities of Renovo, State College, Huntingdon,
Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, McConnellsburg,
Chambersburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte,
Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville,
Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg,
Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, and Carlisle
228 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Clinton, Southern Centre, Huntingdon, Mifflin, Juniata,
  Fulton, Franklin, Tioga, Lycoming, Sullivan, Union, Snyder,
  Montour, Northumberland, Columbia, Perry, Dauphin, Schuylkill,
  Lebanon, and Cumberland Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

 

CTP says winds go calm tomorrow evening and overnight.

[canderson]

11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

CTP says winds go calm tomorrow evening and overnight.

Yea but then just kick back up Sunday am. Saved a few clicks to keep open lol 

[Itstrainingtime]

LSV already upgraded to a 30% risk for Monday. Ominous. SPC mentioning strong to intense tornadoes. And it's only March.

[canderson]

Insane winds  I hate this  

 

[canderson]

SPC has a disco for a day 4 threat. That rarely ever happens.  

Monday is the two deal for the S third of PA for multiple rounds of derecho-type storms 

[Yardstickgozinya]

36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

LSV already upgraded to a 30% risk for Monday. Ominous. SPC mentioning strong to intense tornadoes. And it's only March.

Yes, extremely interesting. I also am hearing that an extremely potent jet streak it is expected to enhance convection and sheer from the middle   Mississippi into the Ohio valley Sunday night into Monday . The last time I think any of us saw such robust nighttime convection this early in the season was 2011 and even that benchmark season waited until mid April to start it's nocturnal shenanigans. Apparently, the situation could be a lot more ominous had the last system not kicked the moisture. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

17 minutes ago, canderson said:

SPC has a disco for a day 4 threat. That rarely ever happens.  

Monday is the two deal for the S third of PA for multiple rounds of derecho-type storms 

With possible embedded rotations