Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Yardstickgozinya]

Big potential Monday creeping into southeast and south central Pennsylvania with a negatively tilted system.  
  ...DISCUSSION...
   Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will
   develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/#

 

[mahantango#1]

Found this on facebook I didn't know NWS was doing a storm survey.

Nepa Storm Chasers 

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Dauphin County Tornado Update 

Some followup on the tornado warned storm in Dauphin County on Wednesday. I have actually drive on the exact road in the exact rural area it struck and there's a solid chance it missed every home as it's extremely rural in Shermans Dale and Blain, PA.

The storm would have only been on the ground for a short time maybe 10-15 mins, 3-8 miles max before lifting. This may have hit a house or just tore up some woods but there was clearly evidence to suggest it was causing damage.

I clipped a photo of the debris ball with the overlay of the general area it would have been. It's all thick woods and very rural homes. I personally stayed in a cabin about 2-4 miles from the exact spot this storm happened at. I'm very curious to see what the NWS survey team determines when they conclude their investigation.

Anyway, thought this may be interesting to everyone. I'll update when I found out.

- Espresso 

[mahantango#1]

US National Weather Service State College PA 

Favorites ·sdptoreoSnma997a669u41tg6fh6f8h58f818c304mh251m1am1606753415 ·

 

Ready to hop on the temperature roller coaster?!

Temperatures will climb in to the 60s again by Monday and then plummet into the 30s on Tuesday.

'Tis the season for BIG temperature swings.

[mahantango#1]

2 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Big potential Monday creeping into southeast and south central Pennsylvania with a negatively tilted system.  
  ...DISCUSSION...
   Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will
   develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/#

 

I wonder if this will expand a little more north in the coming days?

[ChescoWx]

With yesterday's 0.5" of snow, we have now recorded measurable snow in each of the last 5 months from November through March. This is the 6th time that has happened in the last 23 seasons here in East Nantmeal Township. While we have recorded measurable April snow 7 times since 2004 (including last April) we have never recorded snow in 6 consecutive months. No snow in our future at least till Monday night but below normal temperatures both today and tomorrow before near normal (low 50's) highs on Sunday. We warm briefly to well above normal Monday before a strong cold front crosses the area with some potential for severe weather and another potential change to some wet snow before ending on Monday night. Unseasonably cold weather through much of next week appears likely.

[Itstrainingtime]

35 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I wonder if this will expand a little more north in the coming days?

Pretty good chance I'd think. It already moved appreciably north since yesterday's outlook. 

[canderson]

49 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I wonder if this will expand a little more north in the coming days?

Absolutely 

[Itstrainingtime]

Low of 28 this morning in Maytown. Family down outside of Lewes DE recorded 1.4" of snow yesterday after reaching 87 on Wednesday. 

Edit: I had to follow up, at my nephew's house about 3 miles west of Lewes, 33.8" of snow has fallen this winter. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 27.  Classic March days ahead.

[Yardstickgozinya]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

I wonder if this will expand a little more north in the coming days?

 With such a large 30% area already highlighted 4 days out on a forecasted nagatively tilted system coming out of the Mississippi valley while we're already on a bit of a convective heater gets me all hot in the trousers. . That said, the severe outlooks being placed so far east and mediocre surface temps warrant some bust concerns. If this forecast were to verify the main thing I'll be watching on Monday is the proximity and time of convective initiation, low level lapse rates, and moisture return. If we can score some juicy overlapping, there and some of the other parameters hold true, it should be one hell of a day, not far from home. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

26 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 27.  Classic March days ahead.

One man's classic is another man's diarrhea. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

20 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

 With such a large 30% area already highlighted 4 days out on a forecasted nagatively tilted system coming out of the Mississippi valley while we're already on a bit of a convective heater gets me all hot in the trousers. . That said, the severe outlooks being placed so far east and mediocre surface temps warrant some bust concerns. If this forecast were to verify the main thing I'll be watching on Monday is the proximity and time of convective initiation, low level lapse rates, and moisture return. If we can score some juicy overlapping, there and some of the other parameters hold true, it should be one hell of a day, not far from home. 

  I think a consequence of this early convectively, active pattern will be a relax followed by a well timed vigorous return. I also haven't given up on winter. I still think the old man shows his face during one of the swings.