Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[pasnownut]

13 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Even with these nice days, I would still check ahead to see who has their outdoor space operating this early. With that said, South County Brewing (site of the old Pressroom) should have a nice outdoor area back on the ‘ol Steinman Park patio. Also, don’t think they have any outdoor seating but if you haven’t been Southern Market is a really cool spot. 

took my wife there a couple weeks back.  Really like that place. I also agree that a phone call for outside seating might be smart, as they may not be ready for outdoor service.

[pasnownut]

13 hours ago, canderson said:

74 today. Garden is greening up quickly.

 

Meeting a friend in Lancaster for dinner tomorrow - any suggestions on where to sit outside? Downtown. 

Southern Market is really cool.  not outdoor, but its an international style venue, w/ many different cultural goodies to pick from. Rally nice bar in the center that'll suite you well...me thinks. 

[Superstorm]

My Son and his budy from work had some luck  the past two days on the Conawago West and the Susqy fishing from shore. I saw a few boats out today Lake Frederick Goldsborough area hitting in the mouths of the creeks.

That’s what I’m talking about!

Nice catch.


.

[WmsptWx]

Chamber of Commerce out there. Damned shame it's going to get cold again. 

[canderson]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Southern Market is really cool.  not outdoor, but its an international style venue, w/ many different cultural goodies to pick from. Rally nice bar in the center that'll suite you well...me thinks. 

Oh ya we’ve been 5 or so times. It’s great! 

[WmsptWx]

Holy hell, Torcon 3 for this area tomorrow. 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Why did , your map chang?  This isn't the one that you posted.

Image updates automatically once SPC releases a new update. The map I posted yesterday was their day #3 map for Wednesday. Today's day #3 map (the one that you posted) is for Thursday. 

[canderson]

PA tornado outbreak seems possible to somewhat probable tomorrow.  

More than that, straight lines winds of 70 mph seems highly likely for some. Hail too 

[Itstrainingtime]

58 minutes ago, canderson said:

PA tornado outbreak seems possible to somewhat probable tomorrow.  

More than that, straight lines winds of 70 mph seems highly likely for some. Hail too 

Yeah the timing of the front sped up enough that it'll impact us during prime hours now. Yesterday it looked like it wouldn't arrive here until early Thursday which would have greatly mitigated our chances. 

[Itstrainingtime]

This is ramping up pretty quickly:

[Itstrainingtime]

Officially, Lancaster (MU station) is now at 82 and climbing! 

[MAG5035]

On 3/4/2026 at 1:50 PM, WmsptWx said:

 

 

 

Here’s the follow up on all this haha

 

[Itstrainingtime]

17 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Here’s the follow up on all this haha

 

I wonder if/when MU will claim another victory? He's on South Beach right now...

[AccuChris]

Sweet glory today


.

[Itstrainingtime]

These are days that fascinate me as an all-weather enthusiast - your basic 33 degree disparity between the coast and 10 short miles inland this afternoon: (Rehoboth vs. Georgetown DE)

[canderson]

81 in the city. 

[canderson]

CTP hadn’t updated their discussion since 7 am. Hmmm. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Earliest it's hit 82 in Lancaster in 112 years. 

[Itstrainingtime]

24 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP hadn’t updated their discussion since 7 am. Hmmm. 

Updated:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
337 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Near-term temperature and dew point adjustments
* Conditional threat for tornadoes expanded to cover all of
  south-central Pennsylvania.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Spring-like conditions continues through Wednesday.

2) Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms tomorrow. Some
storms may be severe with damaging winds along with the
possibility of a few tornadoes.

3) Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the
week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Spring-like conditions continues through
Wednesday.

As heights continue to build over the eastern US into Wednesday,
temps in central PA may challenge daily records as they surge
+20-30 degrees above the historical average. With highs in the
upper 60s-70s and lows in the 50s (Tue night), it will feel more
like an average day in mid-May than mid-March. Record-breaking
temperatures on Tuesday have already been observed as of 3PM
across the region, with more information on those records coming
with the 5PM evening climate report. Recent forecast continues
to outline record-breaking warmth potential tonight and for high
temperatures on Wednesday. See the climate section for more
information on possible records.

Isolated to scattered showers/thundershowers are possible this
afternoon and evening during the peak of diurnal heating, with
increased sfc moisture and modest lapse rates aloft creating
just enough instability for convection. Showers across NW PA
have already been observed with better instability/shear
slightly north of the border; however, cannot rule out
showers/thunderstorms in the near-term across Warren/McKean
counties. Focus for shower activity this evening shifts closer
to the central-third of the forecast area, based on recent HREF
model guidance.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
tomorrow. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds along
with the possibility of a few tornadoes.

A cold front will sweep through Wednesday night into Thursday,
as an upper trough approaches the region. Ahead of the front,
numerous showers and some thunderstorms are anticipated during
the daytime and evening on Wednesday. The SPC Day 2 (Wednesday)
Slight Risk area continues to include practically all of central
PA with minor changes to the afternoon update today, with
changes limited to expanding the CIG1 hatching across the
southern tier of Pennsylvania (see more below). The main
uncertainty with respect to this threat continues to be
instability with recent HREF model guidance indicating
considerable cloudiness across much of the area (maybe SE PA
sneaks out a couple breaks early) by sunrise Wednesday. Recent
model guidance does continue to like the idea of some shower
activity in the morning hours, which could further limit
instability for the afternoon/evening hours. Probabilities of
SBCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg in the most recent HREF have decreased
some with recent guidance indicating a second corridor along
I-81 and extending closer to the Harrisburg area; however,
probabilities have even dropped in this corridor as well.

With winds of 40-50 kts in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere, it
wouldn`t take much to bring some damaging winds down the
ground. In contrast with the system over this past weekend,
there will be more shower activity during the day on Wednesday
but also a more moist airmass in place before storms arrive, and
no cool air damming signal over east central PA. Given the very
strong low-level winds and Gulf moisture connection, the
resultant 850 mb moisture flux is progged to be about as strong
as it can be this time of year across western PA.

While damaging straight line winds will be the primary threat
with Wednesday`s convection, the SPC D2 outlook also includes
CIG1 hatching over much of southern Pennsylvania, meaning the
conditional probability of an EF2 tornado is greater than the
climatological average. In other words, if tornadoes do develop
in that area on Wed, they could be strong.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the
end of the week and weekend.

As the base of the trough and associated surface cold front
cross PA, a sharp temperature drop in the wake of the cold front
may result in any lingering postfrontal precip changing over to
snow Wed night into Thu. Gusty winds will also accompany the
system, with gusts of 30-40 kts behind the front early Thursday.

Trending toward the longwave pattern that we saw most of the
winter, with cooler conditions on the east coast. Weather
systems will be moving fast so a lot of day to day variation
likely.

Periodic shortwaves in the prevailing upper level pattern will
lead to chances for precipitation as well as strong winds every
few days from this weekend into early next week. At this point,
the storm track favors the primary corridor of precipitation
passing north of the area. With overnight lows within a few
degrees of the freezing mark forecasted, precipitation type will
be largely dependent on what time of day it moves through. But
as of this time, no significant systems or appreciable
precipitation are expected.

&&