Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Voyager]

Who better than the resident warmanista to start our spring thread?

Just please don't me...

[Blizzard of 93]

Well, I’ll track Winter weather in the Spring thread, lol!

[Itstrainingtime]

We typically start threads in the vicinity of the onset of each met season. We'll discuss the weather here regardless of what's happening. 

[canderson]

Ugh this just means humidity is soon to be here. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

We typically start threads in the vicinity of the onset of each met season. We'll discuss the weather here regardless of what's happening. 

Well, like I said, lots of Winter to go…lol!

People should wait until April 10th to give a final Winter grade in my opinion.

I have enjoyed the couple of warm days that we’ve had in the last week or so & I’ll enjoy the warm up later this week, all while tracking the chance of every last flake until the true end of possibilities next month.

[Itstrainingtime]

17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Well, like I said, lots of Winter to go…lol!

People should wait until April 10th to give a final Winter grade in my opinion.

I have enjoyed the couple of warm days that we’ve had in the last week or so & I’ll enjoy the warm up later this week, all while tracking the chance of every last flake until the true end of possibilities next month.

Who gave their final grade?

I do think it will turn cold but I think it's premature to say there's lots of winter left. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if we got more snow but I don't think that's a given. 

[canderson]

February at MDT ended 4.4 below normal in temp and 5.8” below normal in snowfall. 

[Blizzard of 93]

41 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Who gave their final grade?

I do think it will turn cold but I think it's premature to say there's lots of winter left. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if we got more snow but I don't think that's a given. 

I’ve seen final grades by posters scattered around the various regional threads.

My point is that there is plenty of time for grading, when we are actually done.

[Itstrainingtime]

It's too bad we're essentially out of time for wave 1 because it has moved significantly north over the past 48 hours. A southern VA hit is now a central to even northern MD event.

[canderson]

37 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's too bad we're essentially out of time for wave 1 because it has moved significantly north over the past 48 hours. A southern VA hit is now a central to even northern MD event.

We may see white rain tomorrow. And that I think will be the last time we see snow this season. 
 

Like all season, precip starved systems screw us. It’s why we are in a drought.

[Blizzard of 93]

50 minutes ago, canderson said:

We may see white rain tomorrow. And that I think will be the last time we see snow this season. 
 

Like all season, precip starved systems screw us. It’s why we are in a drought.

By next Friday, the cold returns.

It is showing across all ensemble guidance that the trough is back in the east by mid month.

We are far from done with Winter.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's too bad we're essentially out of time for wave 1 because it has moved significantly north over the past 48 hours. A southern VA hit is now a central to even northern MD event.

0z GFS is bringing a little more juice with wave 2, bringing it in earlier with a little more snow this run for the LSV .

[Yardstickgozinya]

Get your snow blowers ready lol

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
201 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

PAZ017>019-025>028-056-057-059-063-065-066-022115-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0013.260303T0900Z-260303T1800Z/
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of York, Philipsburg, Carlisle, Lebanon,
Newport, DuBois, Mount Union, Harrisburg, Hershey, State College,
Mifflintown, Lancaster, Clearfield, Altoona, Huntingdon, and
Lewistown
201 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total ice accumulations up to
  one tenth of an inch and snow accumulations less than one inch.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A light glaze of ice is expected late tonight
  and Tuesday morning, especially on the higher elevations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

---

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
428 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

PAZ017>019-025>028-056-057-059-063-065-066-030930-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-York-Lancaster-
428 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

[Yardstickgozinya]

This is not the full forecast discussion. I only posted discussion on Tuesday mornings mixed precipitation/ ice event.

 Highlight Changed Discussion --

120
FXUS61 KCTP 020800
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
300 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Posted winter weather advisory for freezing rain for almost
  all of the forecast/warning area for later tonight and
  Tuesday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A light wintry mix with light freezing rain accumulations
likely late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

2) Periods of rain with temperatures very much above normal
Wed onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A light wintry mix with light freezing rain
accumulations expected later tonight into Tuesday morning.

Over the past 24 hours, the model solutions have come into
better alignment w.r.t. timing. The QPF and temperatures have
been very consistent from run to run. P-type will be a varied
mix at first, but the gradual warming aloft will turn the
precip to liquid. The consistency has raised our confidence in
a light glaze of ice occurring late tonight and Tuesday morning.

We wondered whether it is a little early to post the advisory
at this range (24-30hrs before start of the hazardous wx). But,
the forecast has been highly consistent at painting measurable
amounts of ZR over the entire CWA. WPC guidance, FRAM progs from
HREF, and NBM forecasts all add together to make a high
confidence forecast for a thin glaze of ice accretion in most
places. We kept the goalposts wide on timing, that is, erring a
little early on start of the ZR, and a little later than when
the ZR should be done in each area. This should help our
partners to be ready should it move in a little faster or end a
little later. We didn`t want to call for too tight of a window.

In all likelihood, the valley locations probably have more like
a 3-6hr time period when ice may accrete before the temps warm
enough to make it plain rain. But, the hills/ridgetops can stay
sub-freezing longer into many events. For example, the 00Z NAM
and GFS BUFKIT soundings both turn the precip type at UNV
(1150ft MSL elevation) to plain rain at 17Z. At that time,
though, the temp profile has the temps at 1000ft still sub-
freezing. Our surrounding ridges are that high above the valley
floor (1900-2400ft MSL). That may be due to a boundary layer of
the cold air staying in place while the warmer air works down
from above - and the valley sfc warms due to the sun. On the
other hand, the fast (30-50KT) winds in the LLJet of the warm
advection could mix/force the warm air down onto the ridgetops
before or at the same time as the valleys gets warm. But, from
personal observation, the scenario where the ridges stay
colder-longer than the valley is just as common.

The arrival time of the precip lends itself to keeping the
temps colder-longer. As for the NW: The northwestern zones may
also need an advisory eventually, but confidence is just a
little lower there for a glaze to occur. The temps may warm just
enough before precip starts to keep it all rain. Collaboration
among the WFOs resulted in holding off on issuing for them
(Warren and McKean) on this shift.

NAM hints at the llvl moisture increasing before the higher
clouds drop larger hydrometeors into it. Thus, there could be
some freezing drizzle before the main push of mix arrives. This
is another reason to start the advy a little earlier than most
of the guidance brings the measurable precip in. The criteria
for a winter weather advisory for freezing rain as the threat
is: any. Even if it just the thinnest of glazes due to the
hazard it presents to travel, even on foot.

[Voyager]

28 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Get your snow blowers ready lol

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
201 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

PAZ017>019-025>028-056-057-059-063-065-066-022115-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0013.260303T0900Z-260303T1800Z/
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of York, Philipsburg, Carlisle, Lebanon,
Newport, DuBois, Mount Union, Harrisburg, Hershey, State College,
Mifflintown, Lancaster, Clearfield, Altoona, Huntingdon, and
Lewistown
201 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total ice accumulations up to
  one tenth of an inch and snow accumulations less than one inch.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A light glaze of ice is expected late tonight
  and Tuesday morning, especially on the higher elevations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

---

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
428 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

PAZ017>019-025>028-056-057-059-063-065-066-030930-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-York-Lancaster-
428 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

Beat me to it. I was just going to post about the WWA myself.

[Voyager]

7 hours ago, canderson said:

We may see white rain tomorrow. And that I think will be the last time we see snow this season. 
 

Like all season, precip starved systems screw us. It’s why we are in a drought.

We started having problems extracting water at some of the springs last summer. For some reason, it's abated some, even though this has been one of our busiest winters. I guess it might be due to less residential demand during winter. I have to wonder, though, what this upcoming summer is going to be like if we continue to be dry.

[Voyager]

Ya'all want to see some serious snow pack? Check out this video I'm going to drop here, even though it's a spring thread. It's from Ste. St. Marie, Ontario. The kid (who owns the business) is a bit of a philanthropist as well. He's doing free work for non-customers due to the hard ice nature of the plow bankings.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

I think (?) we should all be posting in the same thread to avoid confusion and lack of continuity - some are posting in one thread, some in the other, and some are posting in both. Messages/thoughts are going to be missed this way. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Totally missed the spring thread, hello all!  My low was a chilling 21 last night and I continue to think tomorrow morning's commute could be quite problematic with a pre-dawn arrival of the precip.  12z Hi-res guidance seems to be coming it a bit colder on average and some are insistent on a good inch-plus of snowfall.  Even if not, I think ice accretion will be quite efficient.  While yes, the system looks a bit moisture starved, freezing rain accumulates the best at light rates.  With last night dipping so low, if today stays mostly cloudy and mid 30s and tonight drops back into 20s I don't think we have any temp issues whatsoever.  If it starts as snow I think we get almost immediate stickage.  I just think this is one of those classic events that is getting little attention and no one thinks anything of until everyone goes to pile in their cars between 6-8am tomorrow morning and realizes "oh crap".  I could be wrong and this could end as mostly a nothing burger, but I think the timing and temps will be in place to make this an impactful event.  

[Itstrainingtime]

@MUweather

Due primarily to a frigid start, aggregate temps in February2026 ended up about 1.5°F below avg. at millersvilleu. For the 4th month in a row, liquid equivalent precipitation (LEP) was slightly below normal. The 3.8" of snow that fell was well below the monthly average of 8.8".

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Bradford hit 6 last night, Mt. Pocono 8.  National high of 101 at Rio Grande Village, TX and low of -25 at Estcourt Station, ME.

Met Winter at MDT came in cold (4.4 BN), dry (3.00" BN), and with typical snowfall (.9" AN).  The last part may surprise some, as MDT recorded 23.8" of snow, whereas normal is 22.9".  So basically, we did alright on the snowfall front considering the lack of precip.  Some other random stats:  Average wind speed/direction was 7.9mph/WNW (300 degrees to be precise); average sky cover was 65%; and, MDT observed 27 days with light snow falling, 6 with snow, 2 with heavy snow, 6 with sleet, and 11 with fog reducing visibility to <1/4 mile.  Onward.

[NepaJames8602]

Low of 7 here in my part of the Poconos. While I wouldn't mind another late season or two snow event. I'm  over this kind of cold. I still have a solid 7 to 8 inch deep snowpack in my area. Looking forward to rain washing all the salt residue away honestly.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Bradford hit 6 last night, Mt. Pocono 8.  National high of 101 at Rio Grande Village, TX and low of -25 at Estcourt Station, ME.

Met Winter at MDT came in cold (4.4 BN), dry (3.00" BN), and with typical snowfall (.9" AN).  The last part may surprise some, as MDT recorded 23.8" of snow, whereas normal is 22.9".  So basically, we did alright on the snowfall front considering the lack of precip.  Some other random stats:  Average wind speed/direction was 7.9mph/WNW (300 degrees to be precise); average sky cover was 65%; and, MDT observed 27 days with light snow falling, 6 with snow, 2 with heavy snow, 6 with sleet, and 11 with fog reducing visibility to <1/4 mile.  Onward.

Wow! That is awesome data. Thanks for all of it. One other fun fact, in February, Disney World recorded their lowest monthly temp since the resort opened in 1971 with a low of 23 on the 1st. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Wow! That is awesome data. Thanks for all of it. One other fun fact, in February, Disney World recorded their lowest monthly temp since the resort opened in 1971 with a low of 23 on the 1st. 

Thanks!  My boss just returned from there today.  I know he was lamenting the damage that would be done to his wallet ha. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

54 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Bradford hit 6 last night, Mt. Pocono 8.  National high of 101 at Rio Grande Village, TX and low of -25 at Estcourt Station, ME.

Met Winter at MDT came in cold (4.4 BN), dry (3.00" BN), and with typical snowfall (.9" AN).  The last part may surprise some, as MDT recorded 23.8" of snow, whereas normal is 22.9".  So basically, we did alright on the snowfall front considering the lack of precip.  Some other random stats:  Average wind speed/direction was 7.9mph/WNW (300 degrees to be precise); average sky cover was 65%; and, MDT observed 27 days with light snow falling, 6 with snow, 2 with heavy snow, 6 with sleet, and 11 with fog reducing visibility to <1/4 mile.  Onward.

Almost forgot, for my guy @canderson, the highest wind speed/gust both occurred on 12/19/25 at 49/67mph, with directions of 280 and 290 degrees, respectively.