2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

I don't like to criticize the NWS but Charleston dropped the T-storm warning and now has this completely unwarned as it approaches a town which just seems really bad and one of the worst misses I've seen when it comes to tornado signatures. It had a better circulation and more lofted debris ball beforehand too! It even had a separate debris ball 30 minutes ago now! 

I’m not convinced that’s a TDS in this radar snapshot at least tho I’m hardly a pro here.

EDIT: looking at the radar loop I think it *was* one at a point before this screenshot but idk if I t think it’s on the ground here. Might be some debris fallout

[SnowenOutThere]

52 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m not convinced that’s a TDS in this radar snapshot at least tho I’m hardly a pro here.

EDIT: looking at the radar loop I think it *was* one at a point before this screenshot but idk if I t think it’s on the ground here. Might be some debris fallout

My point is this storm deserved a Tornado warning at some point in its lifespan. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Days with cool temps usually don't do much severe wx wise in the area. This is 3x this season where they had risk with 50s and 60s and it amounted to nothing.  

[NorthArlington101]

My point is this storm deserved a Tornado warning at some point in its lifespan. 

Concur with that! All good.

[SnowenOutThere]

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Concur with that! All good.

Those same cells (weakening ofc as they move out of the best thermodynamic environment into the wedge) are approaching UVA and Tech (though further SW like Tech got clearing and now has 1000+ SBCAPE) so will be interesting to see if they can at least hold together enough/become elevated and drop good rain and thunder. Charlottesville itself has gotten split the whole past week and needs a good downpour. 

[NorthArlington101]

Those same cells (weakening ofc as they move out of the best thermodynamic environment into the wedge) are approaching UVA and Tech (though further SW like Tech got clearing and now has 1000+ SBCAPE) so will be interesting to see if they can at least hold together enough/become elevated and drop good rain and thunder. Charlottesville itself has gotten split the whole past week and needs a good downpour. 

Rooting for some interesting weather somewhere in this area. Been such a bore lately.

[SnowenOutThere]

From LWX: Honestly a bit surprised tomorrow got such a long writeup but the increasing risk of storms became high enough to rule out a hike in Shenandoah tomorrow. 

Recent guidance has trended a bit slower with the front`s
progression through the area, which could potentially allow for
a bit more destabilization tomorrow afternoon. As a result, the
trend has also been slightly upward with CAPE values. Much of
the destabilization appears to occur as a result of low-level
moisture convergence in the vicinity of the surface front, which
causes dewpoints to rise into the low to mid 60s. That being
said, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with respect
to how much destabilization occurs, and also the areal coverage
of storms that form.

Shear certainly won`t be lacking tomorrow, with most soundings
showing long, straight hodographs, with around 60 knots of
effective bulk shear and over 100 knots of shear in the cloud
bearing layer. So, if storms form, there is a conditional threat
for supercells. The 12z HRRR for example, hinted at this
possibility, with weak UH tracks.

The thermodynamic environment is a bit odd, and casts
uncertainty with respect to what hazards storms could
potentially produce, if they occur at all. Model soundings show
long, straight hodographs, which would normally be supportive of
hail production. However, profiles are nearly saturated and
moist-adiabatic at low-levels, with a considerable amount of the
CAPE below the freezing level, which is unfavorable for hail
production. Winds in the mid-upper levels are very strong, but
aren`t overly impressive just above the surface. And model
soundings show a good amount of dry air in the mid-levels (which
yields DCAPE values around 700 J/kg), but very moist air at
low-levels and poor low-level lapse rates, which would be
unfavorable for transporting higher momentum air down from
aloft. Machine learning guidance is downplaying the potential
for severe thunderstorms, and SPC currently has us outlooked in
general thunder. However, tomorrow is at least worth monitoring
from a severe thunderstorm perspective given the CAPE/shear
combination that could potentially be in place (high end
scenario of around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and 60 knots of
effective bulk shear).