February 22-23 Storm Thread/OBS

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, Newman said:

Yep I'm expecting the GFS to shift east here and align more with the other models with a coastal hit. Like I said in a post earlier, this feels like a Delaware and coastal Jersey storm. We'll see what the GFS says here...

Aaaaand the GFS holds serve. Wtf!

[Newman]

I'm wrong, GFS is a huge nuke to much of SE PA and the I-95 corridor. 

[Newman]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Aaaaand the GFS holds serve. Wtf!

If it nails this storm, I vote to retire it immediately. Send it off into the sunset on one last high note

[Newman]

GFS actually shifted a bit SE with the heaviest totals with the storm occluding further south. So it moves ENE off the coast and then the precip shield pivots NW into New England. There most certainly would be a few heavy bands further to the NW than what the GFS is showing though. In the end though, noise changes. Steady and no signs of a GFS cave yet

[Chadzachadam]

4 straight runs of over a foot on the GFS plus the other models trending towards it PLUS a different setup at 0z and we still score big…but hard to put much stock in it given everything we know

[Newman]

For fun

[Ralph Wiggum]

GEFS decent with a cluster west of the mean slp. Hold!

Eta: qpf also increased se pa decent tick up

 

[Newman]

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Newman said:

Thank you for your prettier maps !

[Ralph Wiggum]

Gefs mean is around  6.5" imby. Thats pretty sweet.

[RedSky]

Ukmet will not play ball

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Gefs mean is around  6.5" imby. Thats pretty sweet.

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Ukmet will not play ball

Its further west

[Joshb32689]

Where does one obtain the GEFS individuals? Would love to see some of those tucked solutions 

[RedSky]

25 minutes ago, Joshb32689 said:

Where does one obtain the GEFS individuals? Would love to see some of those tucked solutions 

The force is strong with this one

[RedSky]

27 minutes ago, Joshb32689 said:

Where does one obtain the GEFS individuals? Would love to see some of those tucked solutions 

Page 65 MA thread

[LVblizzard]

Euro holds. Light to moderate event for all of us. We still have a window for a west trend and a big storm but if we don’t see it by 0z tomorrow night, it probably won’t happen.

[RedSky]

10 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Euro holds. Light to moderate event for all of us. We still have a window for a west trend and a big storm but if we don’t see it by 0z tomorrow night, it probably won’t happen.

Is the IVT even reliable meh

[LVblizzard]

8 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Is the IVT even reliable meh

The initial wave isn’t from the IVT, it’s from the interaction of the northern and southern streams. The IVT only comes into play once the low starts to head well east. It actually mostly misses us on this run and slams York/Lancaster.