2026 Severe Wx - General Thread

[largetornado]

With a slight risk of severe on thursday in southern half of subforums, time to kick off this years general severe weather thread. Pretty conditional tor threat on thursday but if thermos improve, this looks to be a classic warm front rider event for the area. Some similarities between this and 12/1/2018. Im not overly optimistic as the models are kinda all over the place right now. NAM suite doesnt have good 60+ dews. Low placement among models is a pretty big spread. The experimental models (RRFS and MPAS-RN) are certainly more bullish. 

[frostfern]

27 minutes ago, largetornado said:

With a slight risk of severe on thursday in southern half of subforums, time to kick off this years general severe weather thread. Pretty conditional tor threat on thursday but if thermos improve, this looks to be a classic warm front rider event for the area. Some similarities between this and 12/1/2018. Im not overly optimistic as the models are kinda all over the place right now. NAM suite doesnt have good 60+ dews. Low placement among models is a pretty big spread. The experimental models (RRFS and MPAS-RN) are certainly more bullish. 

You don’t even need 60+ dews this time of year.  

[sbnwx85]

What I love about February is toggling between SPC and Kuchera maps on a daily basis. 


 

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
   LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and
   damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle
   Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early
   evening.

   ...Synopsis...
   Two shortwave troughs are expected to quickly lift
   north-northeastward through the central Plains and into the Ohio
   Valley region on Thursday. The initial perturbation will reach
   Illinois/Indiana by early afternoon. The intensity of this feature
   will remain modest with perhaps some gradual weakening in time. The
   second trough will evolve in the lower Missouri Valley during the
   evening and intensify as it approaches the lower Ohio Valley by
   Friday morning. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen as it lifts
   northeastward from eastern Kansas into the Great Lakes region. At
   least partially modified Gulf moisture will advect northward ahead
   of the surface cold front from the Upper Midwest into the southern
   Plains.

   ...Lower/middle Ohio Valley...
   Ahead of the cold front, a prefrontal trough/pseudo dryline is
   expected to be the focus for convective development during the
   afternoon. The degree/quality of moisture return ahead of this
   feature will be key in terms of the overall magnitude of the severe
   threat. Current observations (Tuesday) from soundings depict a very
   modest moist layer along the Gulf coast. A modest shortwave trough
   on Tuesday night into Wednesday will lift northward too quickly for
   more substantial moisture return. The surface pattern on Thursday
   will be more robust, but deeper moisture may still not reach far
   enough north given that mid 60s F dewpoints are only as far north as
   the central Gulf currently. Guidance suggests mid to upper 50s F
   dewpoints are most probable, which does seem reasonable. That said,
   temperatures aloft will not be overly cold and lapse rates will not
   be overly steep. This will lead to convection that may remain
   somewhat low topped in nature. Despite limiting factors within the
   environment, 40-50 kts of effective shear roughly perpendicular to
   the boundary will favor discrete storms. Low-level flow will be
   increasing with time as well. Supercells capable of few tornadoes,
   damaging winds, and isolated large hail are possible during the
   afternoon/evening.

[KeenerWx]

Ready for some more thunder!

[A-L-E-K]

this is our year

[Stebo]

I actually wouldn't be surprised if this is a very active year for the region, with the plains being dry you can help push the EML/dryline further east than normal.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

n

Not every year you this in Indiana at 4:00 AM in the middle of February 

[Torchageddon]

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0700 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

   Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
   ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and
   damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and
   lower Ohio Valley today. Elsewhere, storms may produce strong wind
   gusts over parts of coastal south-central California early today.

   ...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
   A strong belt (80-100 kt at 500 mb) of cyclonically influenced
   westerlies will extend from the Southwest Deserts to the Ohio and
   Tennessee Valleys, with modest late-day trough amplification over
   the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. A related surface low
   will transition east-northeastward across the Lower Missouri Valley
   toward southern Lake Michigan tonight. A modestly moist warm sector
   will become increasingly established, characterized by mostly 50s F
   surface dewpoints, northward from the Mid-South across most of
   Illinois/Indiana into western/southern Ohio by early evening.

   A steady strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft will occur
   today, increasingly atop/coincident with the modestly moist
   warm-sector boundary layer. Long hodographs will be prevalent with
   upwards of 50-60 kt effective shear by afternoon. Around 200-350
   m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is expected to be maximized on the southeast
   periphery of the surface low and in vicinity of the warm front, with
   the favorable zone including southern Illinois, southern Indiana and
   northern Kentucky.

   Increasing storm development should occur by late morning/midday
   across eastern Missouri, with maturing/increasingly surface-based
   storms near and just north of the I-70 corridor in southern Illinois
   by early afternoon. A semi-focused zone of peak severe/tornado
   potential may unfold generally near I-70, southward to near I-64,
   across southern Illinois and southern Indiana this afternoon through
   early/mid-evening. Sufficient forcing and boundary layer
   warming/mixing should allow for at least isolated semi-discrete
   development southward into the warm sector, and if so, relatively
   long-lived multi-hour supercells are plausible, with all hazards
   possible, but notably including heightened tornado potential, a few
   of which could be strong (EF2+). Given the limited early season
   moisture, the boundary layer will tend to become more hostile to
   surface-based storms and overall severe potential into mid/late
   evening.

   ...Coastal South-Central California...
   Bands of shallow convection will continue to move inland this
   morning. Weak destabilization, along with moderate mean
   boundary-layer winds just off the surface, could allow for locally
   strong to damaging gusts as the front progresses southeastward.

   ..Guyer/Grams.. 02/19/2026

 

[A-L-E-K]

miss south