The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[MJO812]

Rgem is snowier than 0z

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I think a good starting point is 6-12.

I was gonna say 8-12 but that works too .

[Snowlover11]

Just now, Rjay said:

Don't get carried away. The euro shows much less, particularly in western areas. 

Was talking in general not imby lol

[Rjay]

 

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service New York NY

421 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

 

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Blizzard warnings have been issued for Long Island, New York

City, and the Connecticut coast.

 

Winter storm warnings have been issued for interior southern

Connecticut, the Lower Hudson Valley, and northeast New Jersey.

 

&&

 

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) An intense coastal storm will bring heavy snowfall and

strong winds from Sunday into Monday. Blizzard conditions are

expected along the coast with near-blizzard conditions across

interior southern Connecticut, the Lower Hudson Valley, and

northeast New Jersey Sunday night into the first half of

Monday.

 

2) Potential for widespread moderate to locally major coastal

flooding and dune erosion/overwashes Sunday night. Additional

coastal flooding is possible on Monday.

 

3) Low pressure and a cold front will bring another chance for

precipitation during mid next week. Temperatures rising into the

40s by the end of the week will allow for snow melt.

 

&&

 

.DISCUSSION...

 

.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Confidence has increased to the point where winter storm and

blizzard warnings have been issued across the forecast area.

 

A major winter storm is forecast to impact the area Sunday into

Monday. Model guidance has congealed in taking a deepening low

off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday northeast to near the 40N...70W

benchmark Monday. This track is often favorable for all snow

across the region. The low undergoes explosive deepening in 12h,

tracking from near the North Carolina coast Sunday afternoon to

east of the Delmarva Sunday night. Most of the guidance shows

pressure falls on the order of 25 to 30 mb in 12 hour. The low

deepens to around 970 mb as it approaches the benchmark Monday

morning.

 

This storm, expected to be early 1000 miles across in diameter,

will produce heavy precipitation and gale to storm force winds

over the adjacent coastal waters. Model soundings show boundary

layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent mixing. Coastal

locations can expect to see gusts up 40 to 50 mph, possibly even

stronger across far eastern LI and southeast CT. Even inland

area will see near blizzard conditions with winds just a bit

weaker. The highest winds will occur Sunday night into the

first half of Monday.

 

Liquid equivalent amounts of around an inch across far NW

portions of Orange county will be near an inch, with upward of

an 1.5" at the coast. There is even some guidance suggestive of

amount around 2 inches at the coast. However, while there is

good overall agreement in the guidance, there still have been

small adjustments east and west and a consenus forecast (blend

of WPC and NBM) was used. Snow ratios are expected to start of

around 10:1 and then possibly get up to 12-13:1. Temperatures

initially on Sunday may get into the lower and mid 30s, expect

most locations to fall to around freezing if not lower as the

heavy snow develops in the afternoon. So ratios right off the

bat along he coast may even be lower for a short time.

 

Snowfall amounts of 14 to 18 inches are forecast along the coast

with 10 to 14 inches across the interior. NBM deterministic

forecasts point to amounts of 14 to 24 inches across the area,

highest along the coast. But due to some wobbling of the low

track a bit, we do want to see more continuity. NBM 90th

percentile has amounts of 2 to 3 ft. The 00Z LREF (EPS, GEPS,

and GEFS) mean has about a foot at the coast and 7 to 8 inches

across far western sections of Orange County in the Lower Hudson

Valley. The EPS is contributing lower amounts with a more

eastern solution. Should it come a bit more west, than the

higher totals are not out of the realm possibility.

 

Snow is forecast to develop from SW to NE on Sunday, in the

morning from NYC and points north and west, and the in the

afternoon for the remainder of the area. The heaviest snow and

wind will be Sunday night into Monday morning. Snow will end

from west to east during the afternoon hours.

 

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

 

Strengthening E-NE winds Sunday into Sunday night could produce

a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to

locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western

Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island

Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY

Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long

Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday

night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized

overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into

Monday morning.

 

Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the

Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow

limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories.

[KeithB]

55 minutes ago, TriPol said:

There was talk of closing this thread earlier in the week because the chances were so small that anything would come of it. Now Atlantic City could get... 4 feet of snow.

If we get blasted, this thread should be archived.

[MJO812]

Gfs and gfs AI

[Rjay]

Gfs took a step towards the cmc imo

Images are:

0z gfs vs 6z gfs (gif)

6z gfs vs 0z Canadian 

[Mail Man]

GFS not backing down.

[MJO812]

968 low on the gfs

Jeez

[Rjay]

Just now, MJO812 said:

968 low on the gfs

Jeez

Yup big hit still

[NsWx516]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

968 low on the gfs

Jeez

I was just going to post this, Wow! 

[MJO812]

Just now, NsWx516 said:

I was just going to post this, Wow! 

6z gfs has more snow in NYC than 0z

[Rjay]

Last 3 days of gfs runs

Imagine it's wrong lol 

 

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

Doubt there will be any school on Monday.

remote learning school..

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Here's the weenie map

 

The nam was still snowing here lmao

[messier77]

Don’t really have the internet bandwidth to view model runs here, but does it still look like 1:40pm landing at JFK is doable plus 4-5pm driving arrival in central NJ?

[EasternLI]

My P&C forecast is 12-20 lmao. LFG!

[Snowlover11]

9 minutes ago, messier77 said:

Don’t really have the internet bandwidth to view model runs here, but does it still look like 1:40pm landing at JFK is doable plus 4-5pm driving arrival in central NJ?

Do able but it will be snowing at that point. And even landing at 1:40pm you’ll have snow falling.

[Roger Smith]

(As posted on PHL thread) The very rapid pressure falls (especially if GFS most accurate) off the NJ coast will result in wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, as winds always overperform standard gradient metrics when pressure is falling very rapidly. This will probably apply to Long Island as well. Some parts of central NJ could easily see over 30 inches of snow. There could be bands of 20-25 inch accumulations further north over metro NYC and Long Island also. Drifting will be severe due to the wind speeds. In open areas there could be 4-6 ft drifts near the end of the event. (would say 6-8 ft in parts of NJ). This is all of course dependent on GFS verifying as to details of the bomb cyclone formation. Would cut most of this down by one third or more if there is a weaker bomb further from NJ to LI coasts. 

It has to be said, this is shaping up to be a potentially very dangerous situation, fortunately the worst conditions may be Sunday night and travel may become impossible by Monday morning which at least will prevent a lot of people from getting into dangerous situations, they will be trapped at home and probably digging out most of Tuesday. 

Temperatures won't be brutally cold but with these wind speeds, wind chills will be a factor. I think temps will stay fairly close to 30F through most of the snowfall period. 

[EasternLI]