Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Ji]

2 things. 1, it's definitely learning. And 2, let's everyone quit putting this thing on a pedestal, because it jumps around with the rest of them.

It didn’t change that much for being that far out. Just had a later bombing but similar idea

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

It didn’t change that much for being that far out. Just had a later bombing but similar idea

You just lost 13"+ in 6 hours. OK.

Looks like a similar slp path to this weekend's rainstorm. 

[Ji]

You just lost 13"+ in 6 hours. OK.
Looks like a similar slp path to this weekend's rainstorm. 

Okay? Thjs storm has much higher upside.

[Maestrobjwa]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How’s the @Maestrobjwa storm coming along. 

Lol...I posted earlier that if this is still a thing by Thursday I'd start the thread in full doubt and probably call it the "Ain't no way..." storm  

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

It didn’t change that much for being that far out. Just had a later bombing but similar idea

Gonna be interesting to see if other scenarios pop up, or if it's gonna between a hit and getting shunted.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Okay? Thjs storm has much higher upside.

6 days out on a computer/phone screen, but that's not reality. I'd love to end the season with a hecs, but we've failed all winter in reaching top potential, so I  don't have much faith in that at this point. Gotta get within 24-48 hours with near consensus before I  can believe it'smore than a computer simulation tease. 

[stormtracker]

Euro remains the good Doctor.

Says what storm?

[Ji]

Euro looks not great at h5 so far. Very flat

[Ji]

Euro remains the good Doctor.
Says what storm?

It should be retired. Never seen a model hate snow so much

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro looks not great at h5 so far. Very flat

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

It should be retired. Never seen a model hate snow so much

Not even a hint of a storm until its far east over the fish

[psuhoffman]

Euro is more amplified and slower with the Friday/Saturday wave. The result is its suppressing the flow behind it and absorbs what is the next wave on other guidance 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro is more amplified and slower with the Friday/Saturday wave. The result is its suppressing the flow behind it and absorbs what is the next wave on other guidance 

I suspected this was gonna be a wave 1 affecting wave 2 situation...

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro is more amplified and slower with the Friday/Saturday wave. The result is its suppressing the flow behind it and absorbs what is the next wave on other guidance 

I noticed the Ai was slower with the Friday/Saturday wave too. That may account for the change this run. Time will tell if the Euros are right. Didn't look at the Icon. Might be the case with that too, idk.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I noticed the Ai was slower with the Friday/Saturday wave too. That may account for the change this run. Time will tell if the Euros are right. Didn't look at the Icon. Might be the case with that too, idk.

Yea icon trended to a stronger wave 1 and suppressed wave 2. AIFS went in between. Ggem went the other way at 0z.  But across guidance the weaker that Friday thing is the stronger the Sunday storm and vice versa. Which makes sense. Conservation of energy in a limited space and all that jazz. 

[Ji]

Yea icon trended to a stronger wave 1 and suppressed wave 2. AIFS went in between. Ggem went the other way at 0z.  But across guidance the weaker that Friday thing is the stronger the Sunday storm and vice versa. Which makes sense. Conservation of energy in a limited space and all that jazz. 

Unfortunately the Friday Event isn’t that far away. Something always screws us

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Unfortunately the Friday Event isn’t that far away. Something always screws us

Let’s see what the eps says. 18z it was still suggesting the euro op wasn’t necessarily the most likely outcome. EPS beats the op at this range still. But this is complicated.  And our luck has sucked lately. But I’ve liked this threat window for a week now. It’s legit. But complicated and requires phasing. We sometimes win with that though and we’re due. I keep saying that. When is this we’re due index supposed to kick in??? @Bob Chill

[psuhoffman]

Op euro did move in the right direction the last 12 hours but it’s taking baby steps and we’re gonna need a bigger jump here at some point. 

[psuhoffman]

Euro trend last 24 hours. If it did keep this up maybe another 2 more equivalent shifts and it would be a hit. 

[Amped]

Just really confusing how the models are handling the wave spacing over the Rockies and plains. A lot to sort out, the Euro is the only model with a complete destructive interference cancelation.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, anotherman said:

Where’s Chuck?

If it happens, it's probably a rainstorm

Ceder Rapids, Iowa hit 70 today

High was 65F in Chicago, breaking their old daily record of 58F

Milwaukee, Wisconsin hit 63F, smashing their old record of 56F

That ridge is going to move east tomorrow. Then there is nothing major changing about the pattern from now to then. When -PNA's go poleward, which we have for a few days with the threat, there is some cold air behind a cold front, but it's not that strong and the overall pattern of a jet stream north stays generally in control. Maybe it's some wet snow and upper 30s as the best case scenario. 

But a lot of times when temps are busting high with an oncoming ridge, the storm just ends up getting sheared out or weak. 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If it happens, it's probably a rainstorm

Ceder Rapids, Iowa hit 70 today

High was 65F in Chicago, breaking their old daily record of 58F

Milwaukee, Wisconsin hit 63F, smashing their old record of 56F

There is nothing major changing about the pattern from now to then. When -PNA's go poleward, which we have for a few days with the threat, there is some cold air behind a cold front, but it's not that strong and the overall pattern of a jet stream north is generally in control. I don't really see anything interesting to comment about at this point. 

Get a load of this guy 

[psuhoffman]

@mitchnick. FWIW all The ensembles think the bigger risk is an over amped miss to our NW 

[stormtracker]

39 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Warm warm warm rain warm warm . 
 

warm warm warm rain warm warm warm warm warm rain warm warm warm warm warm rain warm warm

warm warm warm rain warm warm warm warm warm rain warm warm warm warm warm rain warm warm warm warm warm rain warm warm warm warm warm rain warm warm warm warm warm rain warm warm

warm warm warm rain warm warm warm warm warm rain warm warm warm warm warm rain warm warm

. 

I dunno man

[psuhoffman]

@Stormchaserchuck1 you can’t claim every non snow scenario as your win. Of course not snowing is the most likely outcome. There are a ton of permutations and most end in no snow.  But you can’t say “it won’t snow because the storm will be too warm, or suppressed, it just miss us, or over amped and track NE. Well duh. Ya likely one or those lol. You mean it’s not likely all the multitude of things we need to go right to get snow will all happen. Nostradamus over here. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I dunno man

Ask him why he thinks it’s going to be warm 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ask him why he thinks it’s going to be warm 

The high in Mooseknuckle Pines, ND was 109 today.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 you can’t claim every non snow scenario as your win. Of course not snowing is the most likely outcome. There are a ton of permutations and most end in no snow.  But you can’t say “it won’t snow because the storm will be too warm, or suppressed, it just miss us, or over amped and track NE. Well duh. Ya likely one or those lol. You mean it’s not likely all the multitude of things we need to go right to get snow will all happen. Nostradamus over here. 

That's what a -PNA SE ridge does though

[map default is positive, so -pna is opposite] - High pressure correlation

The amplified H5 could shear it out, or give you a 38F and rain day. low pressure system is really secondary to H5 pattern. My point is that in tracking, I don't see these downstream effects fully factored into medium range models. 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The high in Mooseknuckle Pines, ND was 109 today.  

Only

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's what a -PNA SE ridge does though

[map default is positive, so -pna is opposite]

The amplified H5 could shear it out, or give you a 38F and rain day. My point is that in tracking, I don't see these downstream effects fully factored into medium range models. 

Look at some of the -pna snowstorms in the 60s. It can happen. Especially if that 50/50 and Hudson high combo verify. But yea what could go wrong is more likely because snow is never the most likely outcome unless it’s that rare -NAO El Niño situation.