2026-2027 Super El Nino

[mitchnick]

Some WB maps at this post.

 

[GaWx]

OHC is still rising and is now at insanely high levels (>+3), especially for early August! @snowman19

[PhiEaglesfan712]

42 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I will place a heavy bet that Nino 1+2 will once again, not cool off as we head into next spring. This is why I don’t yet think we swing back to a major La Niña. Cold neutral is once again on the table next year. 

I wouldn't be surprised if we had a carry over el nino, like 87-88, in 27-28. But it's going to end early, and we're going to get a head start to a strong la nina like in 88-89, in 28-29. It will probably be a one-year la nina, but a very strong one. We'll get the 3rd el nino in the early 2030's, like 91-92 (but probably not with a major volcano).

[LakePaste25]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Some WB maps at this post.

 

While I may not agree with the Euro verbatim, it’s a perfect example of how a stronger Nino doesn’t always mean warmer. The August update increased the strength but went cooler. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we had a carry over el nino, like 87-88, in 27-28. But it's going to end early, and we're going to get a head start to a strong la nina like in 88-89, in 28-29. It will probably be a one-year la nina, but a very strong one. We'll get the 3rd el nino in the early 2030's, like 91-92 (but probably not with a major volcano).

That one may have 2009-2010 like potential as we near solar min and potentially continue to relax the Pacific.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

While I may not agree with the Euro verbatim, it’s a perfect example of how a stronger Nino doesn’t always mean warmer. The August update increased the strength but went cooler. 

It's probably due to the anti-2023 effect, which demonstrated that weaker doesn't necessarily mean colder. Guidance is probably picking up on the reduced MC competition, thus the less inhibited se CONUS trough expression.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

While I may not agree with the Euro verbatim, it’s a perfect example of how a stronger Nino doesn’t always mean warmer. The August update increased the strength but went cooler. 

Looks to be defaulting to general El Nino correlations rather than an actual forecast for such an extreme event. We saw a similar forecast back in August 2024. The area to the north is warmer and Southeast cooler.  

 

 

Verification in °C

 

[LakePaste25]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks to be defaulting to general El Nino correlations rather than an actual forecast for such an extreme event. We saw a similar forecast back in August 2024. The area to the north is warmer and Southeast cooler.  

 

Makes sense to me. A stronger Nino would theoretically result in a stronger correlation to the canonical pattern that goes with it. That 23-24 map looks like it was showing warmer in both the W and SE compared to now which makes sense. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks to be defaulting to general El Nino correlations rather than an actual forecast for such an extreme event. We saw a similar forecast back in August 2024. The area to the north is warmer and Southeast cooler.  

 

 

Verification in °C

 

Right, but was there a trend towards a more defined se trough this late in the game? I feel like that is what is important because call me crazy, but this may just be the year when a correction towards default El Nino may be the correct adjustment.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think it's important not to automatically dismiss the correction towards default El Nino leading into the strongest El Nino in history.