2026-2027 Super El Nino

[EasternLI]

I think we'll see a pretty darn robust STJ, eventually. Remember there's some resistance in the pacific with the -PDO too. That's a battle royale there IMO but I think the sheer magnitude of this el nino overwhelms it. But it's going to take some time to do that. Aifs-ens would suggest we see it start to fire up a little bit towards mid Aug. Will be interesting to see if that's accurate and if it starts to ramp up more as we move towards autumn. If we see that, I'd feel more confident. 

 

As far as the QBO is concerned. That's an area of ongoing research. Which has been noticed more and more as an important factor in various areas. So it has been gaining more and more interest. Here's some newer work that also included the Pacific jet. The image below is actually a cross section of the jet in late winter. Same conclusion. El nino + WQBO is the combo for the strongest jet. ERA5 data in top row model runs in the rows underneath. 

 

QBOi El Niño–Southern Oscillation experiments: teleconnections of the QBO

https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/1419/2025/

 

Quote

In the subtropics, the QBO has a direct influence on the subtropical jet through its secondary circulation. Observational studies have indicated that the QBO can affect the subtropical jet variability, particularly in the Pacific sector (e.g. Garfinkel and Hartmann, 2011a, b). During QBO-W, a horseshoe-shaped zonal wind anomaly forms in the UTLS associated with an equatorward shift of the Asian-Pacific jet (APJ) (Crooks and Gray, 2005; Simpson et al., 2009) This response is evident even near the surface over East Asian (Park et al., 2022; Park and Son, 2022).

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I was just mentioning that your analog composite of <-60dm for DJFM is probably too low. I used 6 straight months of -PNA as an example. That doesn't mean I expect the PNA to be negative, just that there are competing forces right now. 

I understand all of that....and I have tried to explain to you that you are taking that composite far too literally....it's not a forecast composite....it does't even incorporate the extra tropical Pacific.  It's literally just a composite derived from solar, QBO and ENSO data, as that is how I assess the polar fields.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

I think we'll see a pretty darn robust STJ, eventually. Remember there's some resistance in the pacific with the -PDO too. That's a battle royale there IMO but I think the sheer magnitude of this el nino overwhelms it. But it's going to take some time to do that. Aifs-ens would suggest we see it start to fire up a little bit towards mid Aug. Will be interesting to see if that's accurate and if it starts to ramp up more as we move towards autumn. If we see that, I'd feel more confident. 

 

As far as the QBO is concerned. That's an area of ongoing research. Which has been noticed more and more as an important factor in various areas. So it has been gaining more and more interest. Here's some newer work that also included the Pacific jet. The image below is actually a cross section of the jet in late winter. Same conclusion. El nino + WQBO is the combo for the strongest jet. ERA5 data in top row model runs in the rows underneath. 

 

QBOi El Niño–Southern Oscillation experiments: teleconnections of the QBO

https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/1419/2025/

 

 

QBO is a great forecasting tool....I've been killing it the past couple years integrating the QBO with solar cycle.

[chris21]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

1997-1998 was a great example of what happens when the STJ overpowers the pattern with too much warmth. NYC only finished with 5.5 inches of snow that season. Many lows running to the Ohio Valley and then tracking very close to the area. I made a composite of the 12 heaviest precipitation days that winter. 
 

12 heaviest precipitation storm days in NYC during DJF 1997-1998 and the storm track progression 

 

 

Interestingly, this was one of the snowiest winters on record for the Southern Appalachians. 

[snowman19]

As expected:

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Back in May, Eric Webb argued that the ++PMM was acting as a defacto +PDO. +PMM or not, my guess is that we see a flip to a weak positive PDO by the end of fall given the historic strength and strong coupling of this El Niño

One thing is for sure, this El Niño looks more and impressively by the day, regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 are in overdrive, as are the WWBs, subsurface, SOI and DWKWs….

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It would be interesting to know what caused the WWBs to be so much stronger this year than in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016? We noticed the record WWBs developing back in December north of Australia.

These record WWBs are the reason that this is turning into an east based event over the last month. Nino 1+2 has pulled just ahead of 1997-1998 and 3 and 3.4 are significantly ahead of 1997-1998. Nino 4 has been declining this month.

This is going to be a really extreme case study. Since these anomalies would allow the +30 C warm pool to get further east in the ENSO regions than it ever has been before.