2026-2027 Super El Nino

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, BlizzardWx said:

Somebody had made a comment on the cold 80+ N area the other day, but worth noting that sea ice continues to remain near record lows for the date. 

How does area look?

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

How does area look?

I found them  

[bluewave]

Don’t be surprised if the models like the Euro increase the El Niño regions SST forecasts again on August 5th once the effects of this  near record WWB get incorporated into the new model run. 

 

[roardog]

2 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

Somebody had made a comment on the cold 80+ N area the other day, but worth noting that sea ice continues to remain near record lows for the date. 

It looks like it’s staying close to 2012 to date but 2012 wasn’t at record low levels yet on this date in 2012. It fell off a cliff in August. 

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I found them  

Yep, extent is doing worse than area as compared to recent years.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With today's -16.25, the streak, which began on May 11 is 75 days. The record is 100 consecutive days (January 3 through April 12, 1998). Daily records only go back to 1991.

 Thanks, Don. It will be interesting to see if 2026 beats 1998’s 100 days!

 As you said, the record of the daily SOs goes back only to 1991. I wonder if there’s any way to find dailies pre-1991. Based on the monthlies, I’d say that 1982-3 would have a 50% or higher chance of having a streak exceeding 100 days if the dailies could be found. Why? These monthlies, especially Nov-Mar:

1982  8   -22.2  1
1982  9   -20.0  1
1982  10  -20.5  1
1982  11  -30.0  1
1982  12  -22.6  1
1983  1   -31.4  1
1983  2   -35.7  1
1983  3   -25.7  1

 
 Another good candidate per the monthlies is 1905, especially Mar-June:

1905  2   -18.5  3
1905  3   -27.7  1
1905  4   -38.2  1
1905  5   -34.3  1
1905  6   -27.7  1
1905  7   -19.8  1

One last good possibility is 1896, especially May-Aug:

1896  5   -38.8  3
1896  6   -27.0  1
1896  7   -19.1  1
1896  8   -21.0  1
1896  9   -18.2  1
1896  10  -19.2  1