2026-2027 Super El Nino

[forkyfork]

maybe northeastern backyards will get a ku

[snowman19]

“The 2026-27 El Niño is simply astonishing.

Tropical Pacific waters are running nearly 7 weeks ahead of where they’ve ever been at this point in an El Niño cycle in modern history.

Models now put the peak strength at 3.6°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), the new standard for measuring El Niño that adjusts for background ocean warming from climate change.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

This +QBO is actually helping to magnify and strengthen this super El Niño. It’s supporting a more robust MJO which enhances the WWBs/westerlies, DWKWs and warming; both surface and subsurface. It’s also helping to support strong ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback). Once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to constructively interfere with this process even further. A record-breaking historic event is all but guaranteed at this point:

“+QBO is not the engine of this chain; it is the stratospheric background modulator that determines under what conditions tropical convection can become more organized and persistent.

A favorable vertical phase structure can support the deep convection of the MJO and upper tropospheric divergence by altering the temperature and stability field around the tropopause.

The strengthening of the convective core over the Western–Central Equatorial Pacific, in turn, reorganizes the surface pressure gradient, increasing the likelihood of westerly wind anomalies and the development of Westerly Wind Bursts.

Sufficiently strong and persistent WWBs transfer eastward momentum to the ocean; downwelling Kelvin waves, which induce downward displacement in the thermocline, transport the warm water volume to the central and eastern Pacific. This deepens the thermocline, paves the way for surface warming, and—if the existing ocean heat content is adequate—can strengthen ENSO coupling through the Bjerknes feedback.

However, this process is neither linear nor inevitable; the ultimate response depends far more on the position and amplitude of the MJO, the duration of the WWB, the initial SST pattern, the state of the trade winds, and the preconditioning of the ocean than on the +QBO phase. The schema therefore represents not a definitive cause–effect chain, but a multiscale and state-dependent framework of tropical interactions extending from the stratosphere to the ocean.”


 
^ https://x.com/atmoslabwx/status/2074977555782996458?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[snowman19]

The models continue to show the WPAC, CPAC and EPAC waking up with TC’s. This is only going to keep the WWB train going and going….

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, forkyfork said:

maybe northeastern backyards will get a ku

Probably a better shot than most of the past decade to be perfectly honest...it's been dry as hell.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Def. agree with raindance on volatility....probably going to be a potpourri of east-based, Modoki and MC forcing, with less emphasis on that latter relative to the past decade.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This +QBO is actually helping to magnify and strengthen this super El Niño. It’s supporting a more robust MJO which enhances the WWBs/westerlies, DWKWs and warming; both surface and subsurface. It’s also helping to support strong ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback). Once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to constructively interfere with this process even further. A record-breaking historic event is all but guaranteed at this point:

“+QBO is not the engine of this chain; it is the stratospheric background modulator that determines under what conditions tropical convection can become more organized and persistent.

A favorable vertical phase structure can support the deep convection of the MJO and upper tropospheric divergence by altering the temperature and stability field around the tropopause.

The strengthening of the convective core over the Western–Central Equatorial Pacific, in turn, reorganizes the surface pressure gradient, increasing the likelihood of westerly wind anomalies and the development of Westerly Wind Bursts.

Sufficiently strong and persistent WWBs transfer eastward momentum to the ocean; downwelling Kelvin waves, which induce downward displacement in the thermocline, transport the warm water volume to the central and eastern Pacific. This deepens the thermocline, paves the way for surface warming, and—if the existing ocean heat content is adequate—can strengthen ENSO coupling through the Bjerknes feedback.

However, this process is neither linear nor inevitable; the ultimate response depends far more on the position and amplitude of the MJO, the duration of the WWB, the initial SST pattern, the state of the trade winds, and the preconditioning of the ocean than on the +QBO phase. The schema therefore represents not a definitive cause–effect chain, but a multiscale and state-dependent framework of tropical interactions extending from the stratosphere to the ocean.”


 
^ https://x.com/atmoslabwx/status/2074977555782996458?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

this illustration there is annoying... the arrow of the circulation eddy is pointed up demonstratively where they write "down" welling

[TheClimateChanger]

I was speculating on whether this month could become the hottest on record for the CONUS. Modeling continues to support. If the NBM is correct, we would be at or above 2.5F (above 1991-2020) by the 18th. Full month record is 2.38F in 1936, followed by 2.34F in 2012. CFS, EPS and GEFS all have us above the 2011 record for population-weighted CDDs.