2026-2027 Super El Nino

[George001]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Like I said, I  agree seasonal models are generally inaccurate. We know this. But using a model prog from 3 years ago as a basis has no relevance especially considering upgrades have been made and without statistical proof that the current version has particular biases in Niños. And since there have been no Niños since 2023, that ain't happening. 

The issue I’m having here is Im not seeing how they would have fixed the whole mean smoothing extreme anomalies thing (something that is inherently higher risk in an extreme tail ENSO event) since 2023. Maybe im wrong and am underestimating the upgrades, but im at a point where i need to see it to believe it. 

On the other hand, elevated risk does not equal guaranteed, there is a world where Bluewave is right from a probability standpoint but the winter ends up only being slightly AN like the European guidance mean has right now because that extremely warm month that often happens in super ninos just doesn’t happen this year. You are correct that we don’t have statistical proof of the current versions biases in ninos yet. Thats a valid point, so the best we can do at this point is make an educated guess. I still think it’s worth trying. 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Come on man. Google is your friend. Lol

You have to realize that the actual pattern isn’t always what you want it to be. 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You have to realize that the actual pattern isn’t always what you want it to be. 

Where'd that come from? Lol

Just be happy with the 1-2C+ the Euro is showing for the NE and hope for warmer next time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Despite the delusions and lies being peddled by the usual cast of weenies on twitter, the EURO seasonal is NOT showing a cold December and January in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. It’s actually showing a canonical super El Niño pattern with a big Aleutian Low displaced way east to the west coast; ++EPO/EPO floodgates wide open with nothing but Pacific maritime air flooding Canada and the CONUS. No arctic connection at all. This is not cold in Canada or the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, not even close. Before someone says it, no, it’s not a torch either. Again, not a torch, but it’s not cold. Deep denial and delusions, fake news and false info from the weenie crowd on twitter, which is no surprise. Year after year it’s the same old show from the same clowns

I get what you are saying...there is some hyperbole going on, but I also think that you should be a bit more measured with respect to your own tone, as well....while the position of that GOA low is more redolent of the stronger composite than the weak data set, it's also not very representative of the east-based composite, either. I would expect that the season would cool down beyond December extrapolating out.

Weaker (left) vs Stronger (right)

Modoki (Left), Basin-Wide (Center) vs East-Based (Right)

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Then why use older temp forecasts to argue for warmer conditions? 

Be honest. If the Euro came in this month, or does in future months, that the NE will be a torch this winter, I suspect you, or one of your surrogates, will be all over it. 

He's saying that ridging is underestimated in this modern era, so where ever ridging is denoted, it's highly likely that seasonal guidance will be too cold and low with heights in that area...regardless of where it is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Imo this reads more as an experienced long range guy using pattern recognition to detect model biases than a warm bias. Euro has the classic super Nino warm north + big GOA low + cooler south + wet with raging STJ signal. It makes sense that the mean may be smoothing things too much in an extreme tail event like this, hence the warmer risks Bluewave is raising concerns about. If there is MC forcing as well we could see a very warm month (like December in 2015) that pulls the anomalies from slightly AN to extremely AN. I like the cold and snow as much as anyone, but Bluewave brings up a good point here and it’s worth taking seriously. 

 

Yes, this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Like I said, I  agree seasonal models are generally inaccurate. We know this. But using a model prog from 3 years ago as a basis has no relevance especially considering upgrades have been made and without statistical proof that the current version has particular biases in Niños. And since there have been no Niños since 2023, that ain't happening. 

What does ENSO state have to do with it? We know guidance has yet to catch up to the intensity of modern ridges because we just witnessed it last winter out west. ENSO state plays a role in dictating where the under-modeled ridging will set up, but it doesn't alter the fact that it is consistently under modeled.  

The whole "show me update data every season" is a cop out IMHO...the sky is blue, and I don't need data...either look upwards and check Google.

[LakePaste25]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get what you are saying...there is some hyperbole going on, but I also think that you should be a bit more measured with respect to your own tone, as well....while the position of that GOA low is more redolent of the stronger composite than the weak data set, it's also not very representative of the east-based composite, either. I would expect that the season would cool down beyond December extrapolating out.

Weaker (left) vs Stronger (right)

Modoki (Left), Basin-Wide (Center) vs East-Based (Right)

 

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

While it won’t be a wall to wall shutout and there will be cold shots & brief opportunities, I would expect a pac jet dominated winter.

Yup. Avoiding absolutisms (such as “this will be a wall-to-wall shutout, record low snow, etc.”) is key to seasonal forecasting. There will be pacific jet extensions and it will be unfavorable for winter far, far more often than not. Probably as high as 70/30 or 80/20 unfavorable.  But there should be some windows of opportunity, even if brief. Of course I am more of a weather weenie than just a snow weenie, so even seeing coastals and severe outbreaks in the South will keep my interest going, plus tracking those brief opportunists to see if a KU event comes to fruition will also be fun. 

[LakePaste25]

Just to expand on this, I think 66-70% unfavorable/30-34% favorable is probably the absolute ceiling for this event in terms of best-case scenarios, which equates to 1 good winter month out of the 3.

50/50 or unfavorable 30%, 70% favorable you’re getting into Modoki territory and there’s simply no support for that kind of event. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

Yup. Avoiding absolutisms (such as “this will be a wall-to-wall shutout, record low snow, etc.”) is key to seasonal forecasting. There will be pacific jet extensions and it will be unfavorable for winter far, far more often than not. Probably as high as 70/30 or 80/20 unfavorable.  But there should be some windows of opportunity, even if brief. Of course I am more of a weather weenie than just a snow weenie, so even seeing coastals and severe outbreaks in the South will keep my interest going, plus tracking those brief opportunists to see if a KU event comes to fruition will also be fun. 

Yea, I am not...at least not at this point in life. My focus is pretty concentrated around SNE snowfall and US cane threats. If the highlight of this winter is severe threats down south, my post count will be considerably lower than usual.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

Just to expand on this, I think 66-70% unfavorable/30-34% favorable is probably the absolute ceiling for this event in terms of best-case scenarios, which equates to 1 good winter month out of the 3.

50/50 or unfavorable 30%, 70% favorable you’re getting into Modoki territory and there’s simply no support for that kind of event. 

Yea, one very good month is my thinking...maybe another averageish month if things break right.

[snowman19]

https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2074089660733661350?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[bluewave]

These Euro monthly SST forecasts show how a large portion of the ENSO forecast plume regions are currently on track to set new all-time actual SSTs and anomalies.