2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

This TC/MJO progression is going to initiate a massive WWB with a constructively interfering ERW at the end of this month into July. Another (new) DWKW guaranteed to follow. And we have a developing +IOD. I’m more convinced than ever that this event will easily be stronger than any El Niño we’ve seen since 1950 in both RONI and traditional ONI
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LakePaste25]

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I predict that R 3.4 and R 1+2 will be up to +1.1/+2.4 in tomorrow’s weekly update. These would be up from the +0.9/+2.1 of last Monday’s report.

CRW is already at +1.2

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Ever had a La Nina this east based?

About 2 years ago, I did the composites on the moderate and strong la ninas. 1975-76 was the closest to being east based of the strong la ninas. 1949-50 is probably the best example of an east based la nina, with 1970-71 and 1984-85 possibly being east based.

[mitchnick]

The Jamstec. My new favorite seasonal model...so far.

https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

[LakePaste25]

48 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

About 2 years ago, I did the composites on the moderate and strong la ninas. 1975-76 was the closest to being east based of the strong la ninas. 1949-50 is probably the best example of an east based la nina, with 1970-71 and 1984-85 possibly being east based.

I consider 2021-2022 to be an east-based La Niña. 

 

[LakePaste25]

I know @bluewave brings this up a lot, but I will forever be fascinated by the clean phase 8 pass through in January 2022. With all of the competing Nina forcing going on, I don’t know how we pulled that off especially during an actual Nina. 

[LakePaste25]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Big shift to a negative tendency last few days as we see a more Niña-like pattern again for a time near the end of the month. 

 

Not that unusual in super Nino events. I wouldn’t expect 24/7 +AAM and it’ll probably bounce back quickly. 

 

 

[snowman19]

Not that unusual in super Nino events. I wouldn’t expect 24/7 +AAM and it’ll probably bounce back quickly.