2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

Can anyone link the RONI guidance?

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/05/development-of-major-el-nino-imminent.html

 

[so_whats_happening]

That -PDO is looking to make a comeback 

[GaWx]

Darwin’s higher than normal SLP is finally starting to contribute to a -SOI. Until yesterday, it’s been mainly due to low Tahiti SLP.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

On 5/19/2026 at 2:09 PM, GaWx said:

In mid May vs 2026:

-2023 was more E based

-2015 was similar

-1997 was more E based

-1991 and 1982 were more W based

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

1982 wasn't W based. That one topped out at +4.6 on Nino 1+2, which is even higher than 1997 (4.1). If anything, 1982 should be E based.

82-83 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.6        

Nino 3: 2.9

Nino 3.4: 2.9

Nino 4: 1.3

97-98 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.1

Nino 3: 3.3

Nino 3.4: 2.2

Nino 4: 1.1

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1982 wasn't W based. That one topped out at +4.6 on Nino 1+2, which is even higher than 1997 (4.1). If anything, 1982 should be E based.

82-83 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.6        

Nino 3: 2.9

Nino 3.4: 2.9

Nino 4: 1.3

97-98 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.1

Nino 3: 3.3

Nino 3.4: 2.2

Nino 4: 1.1

Correct, but it had a -WPO, which is why it was actually a decent season.

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, George001 said:

So I’m curious why you guys think this El Niño is expected to grow so powerful not too long after our last strong event in 2023-2024. The latest guidance has this hitting high end strong at a minimum, given how this event has been developing (already near +1C on the daily in Nino 3.4, subsurface is boiling etc) that seems conservative if anything. The return rate for super ninos is what, once every 8 or so years?

It could be related to the EPAC near Nino 1+2 not fully cooling off following the +2.1 ONI event back in 2023-2024. All the ONI events over plus +2.0 since the early 1970s had a stronger return to La Niña conditions in the following years even to Nino 1+2.

We can also notice the La Ninas following super El Niños weakening over time. The recent La Niña was one of the weakest on record following such a strong El Niño.

Plus back in November of 2024 we had a Nino +1.2 warming leading to the Nino-like December 2024 pattern and the 2nd warmest CONUS December with the record +PNA for a La Niña December. Many people commented how it looked like a El Niño December. The Aleutian Low was actually pretty strong for a change.

Very unusual Nino +1.2 warming in November 2024 and Nino-like December 2024

 

So it appears that the 2023-2024 and 2026-2027 events are almost running together like the 2023-2024 event never fully ended. Something like this hasn’t happened before in or modern climate era. So it will be interesting to see what happens following this event in 2027-2028. 

La Ninas getting weaker following +2.0 ONI El Niño events

1972-1973 ONI +2.1…..1973-1974 ONI -2.0

1982-1983 ONI..+2.2…1984-1985 ONI..-1.1

1997-1998 ONI….-2.4…1999-2000 ONI -1.7

2015-2016..ONI….+2.8…2017-2018 ONI…-0.9

2023-2024 ONI +2.1….2025-2026 ONI…-0.5

Nino +1.2 never fully cooled off between El Niño events which is a first in the modern climate era.

 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1982 wasn't W based. That one topped out at +4.6 on Nino 1+2, which is even higher than 1997 (4.1). If anything, 1982 should be E based.

82-83 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.6        

Nino 3: 2.9

Nino 3.4: 2.9

Nino 4: 1.3

97-98 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.1

Nino 3: 3.3

Nino 3.4: 2.2

Nino 4: 1.1

 I didn’t say 1982 was W based overall. I was specifically referring to the mid May snapshot, when it was actually W based. I said, “In mid May vs 2026”, 1982 was more W based than 2026:

1982: 1+2 was coolest in mid May

12MAY1982        -0.6        0.5        0.4        0.7
 19MAY1982        -0.4        1.0        1.1        1.1

 

2026: 1+2 is warmest in mid May

13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.5        0.6

 

 So, as of mid May, 1982 was more W based than 2026. Later (July and beyond), I agree that 1982 clearly transitioned to E based. But my post was referring only to the snapshot as of the current point in time, mid May.

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I didn’t say 1982 was W based overall. I was specifically referring to the mid May snapshot, when it was actually W based. I said, “In mid May vs 2026”, 1982 was more W based than 2026:

1982: 1+2 was coolest in mid May

12MAY1982        -0.6        0.5        0.4        0.7
 19MAY1982        -0.4        1.0        1.1        1.1

 

2026: 1+2 is warmest in mid May

13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.5        0.6

 

 So, as of mid May, 1982 was more W based than 2026. Later (July and beyond), I agree that 1982 clearly transitioned to E based. But my post was referring only to the snapshot as of the current point in time, mid May.

Correct. Out of all the “recent” super El Niños (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015), *at the current point in time*, 2026 is most similar to 1997

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Correct. Out of all the “recent” super El Niños (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015), *at the current point in time*, 2026 is most similar to 1997

Thanks. Actually at the current point in time, I have 2026 to be most similar to 2015: check this out

13MAY2015         1.3        0.7        0.6        0.7
 20MAY2015         1.3        0.5        0.5        0.8

 

13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.5        0.6

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+7c is about to pop in the far eastern subsurface on TAO/Triton. That's the warmest so far, and the subsurface is still strengthening according to that. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

That -PDO is looking to make a comeback 

Pretty impressive decadal -PDO state we are in. I wonder if the mid-latitude low pressures will ever come back like they were for the 82-83 and 97-98 El Nino's. 

[roardog]

What is the site for the daily PDO readings? I can’t remember what it is. 

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, roardog said:

What is the site for the daily PDO readings? I can’t remember what it is. 

Click on 2nd chart on right at this link:

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

It dropped to -1.04, which is equivalent to the NOAA being in the ~-1.75 to -2 range.

[snowman19]