2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

20 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Too much niña. We haven’t had a traditional classic niño since 2018-2019.

Even that was a -PNA Winter

We haven't had classic Strong Nino since 2016

[michsnowfreak]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

23-24 was "la nino" which I'm afraid we are on pace to repeat. Dec-Mar was very wet though, so line up a -NAO and it could be good just like other Strong Nino's. DJF NAO 23-24 was +1.08/month that Winter.. since March is not recently much of a Winter month

As terrible as '23-24 was, January was a good month here. Just the rest of that winter absolutely sucked. And the March thing is wild lately....November has been more wintry than March of late.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

As terrible as '23-24 was, January was a good month here. Just the rest of that winter absolutely sucked. And the March thing is wild lately....November has been more wintry than March of late.

Jan 2024 had a pretty good -NAO with some cold coming underneath of northern latitude ridging. It was a pattern break from the -NAO bouts always hooking up with SE ridge 2018-2023. 

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Jan 2024 had a pretty good -NAO with some cold coming underneath of northern latitude ridging. It was a pattern break from the -NAO bouts always hooking up with SE ridge 2018-2023. 

2015-16 had multiple wintry bouts outside the torch December. I feel like for here, a strong (or super) nino is going to have 1 horrendous month and the rest of the time will have multiple chances that make or break how bad (or good) the winter is. Its different in the east coast where it seems going on getting (or not getting) one massive storm will be the story of a strong nino winter. 

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark

Gaining more confidence this El Niño breaks the 1982-83 RONI record (+2.5C). Also think the ONI peaks solidly over +3.0C
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark

Gaining more confidence this El Niño breaks the 1982-83 RONI record (+2.5C). Also think the ONI peaks solidly over +3.0C
 

Yea, unfortunately, I feel like the remaining delta between the two is more important than the absolute RONI reading.  Looks like a subpar season with an elevated risk for a big-dog.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Even that was a -PNA Winter

We haven't had classic Strong Nino since 2016

Right....2018-2019 was la Nino, as well. It's honestly been over a decade since we've had a true El Nino, and the RONI even lagged in that one.

[GaWx]

Weekly relative SSTa update: Nino 3.4 slight rise to +0.5 (Nino threshhold):

 

Cal wk midpt…...1+2……...3….…..3.4……..…4

01APR2026         0.8       -0.3       -0.3        0.2
 08APR2026         1.1       -0.1       -0.2        0.3
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6
 22APR2026         0.9        0.3        0.2        0.5
 29APR2026         0.7        0.5        0.4        0.5
 06MAY2026         1.0        0.6        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.5        0.6

[GaWx]

BoM May RONI not surprisingly reduced from +1.1 to +0.5 but later months actually a bit warmer than prior run with Oct +3.0 vs +2.7 prior run and +2.7 record for a single month (1982)

5/9/26 run: May was at +1.1

5/16/26 run: May down to +0.5 but warmer later months

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....2018-2019 was la Nino, as well. It's honestly been over a decade since we've had a true El Nino, and the RONI even lagged in that one.

Yeah, that 2018-20 period was a disjointed at best. We didn't really have a definitive ENSO or PDO state during those years (the PDO was near neutral for the greater part of almost 4 years after the mid-2010s el nino dissipated), until we got to 2020-21, which was a solid la nina and -PDO.

[snowman19]

+IOD incoming, which will constructively interfere with the developing El Niño and will help to enhance the equatorial westerlies. I think this is the combo that finally sloshes the Indo-WPAC warm pool east……
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

+IOD incoming, which will constructively interfere with the developing El Niño and will help to enhance the equatorial westerlies. I think this is the combo that finally sloshes the Indo-WPAC warm pool east……
 

Hopefully that helps boost the RONI.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

 Pretty interesting that warm water extends all the way from South America to the Phillippines along the equator, as bluewave pointed out. 

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully that helps boost the RONI.

I don’t think the RONI has any problem at all achieving super status. +IOD development is common amongst all the big time (super) El Niño events, i.e. 1997……

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

 Pretty interesting that warm water extends all the way from South America to the Phillippines along the equator, as bluewave pointed out. 

Yea, this is why I don't think the Modoki is really going to matter.

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t think the RONI has any problem at all achieving super status. +IOD development is common amongst all the big time (super) El Niño events, i.e. 1997……

I think it's more about how it relates to the ONI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

With any luck, this El Nino will provide the impetus for the exit of this west-warm pool oriented decade, as snowman suggested. I understand that may mean biting the bullet this year.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

With any luck, this El Nino will provide the impetus for the exit of this west-warm pool oriented decade, as snowman suggested. I understand that may mean biting the bullet this year.

You don't want to bite the bullet with a Strong Nino STJ. I guess it matters a little more in the Mid-Atlantic. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You don't want to bite the bullet with a Strong Nino STJ. I guess it matters a little more in the Mid-Atlantic. 

What choice do I have? If it's a super El Nino with the RONI lagging the ONI like 2023, then it will suck...just pray for one good storm and an exit from Bluewave's warm-pool nightmare.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

March-April 2026 NAO of +4.08 fits the warm Earth pattern going forward, that I have started to observe happening (notice how much of the N. Hemisphere is warm in the next 4 months: these composites are not AGW weighted, old analogs are equal to new analogs)

The pattern rolls forward to some +NAO conditions, at least early on, in the Following Winter (26-27)

[Typhoon Tip]

Folks may have some issue fatigue but ...too bad. 

We are currently crossing a date-relative historic max in the global mean temperature.   This curve looks disconcerting, particularly when considering

A,   the quadratures are all bursting at the same time:  SH/NH, Arctic/Antarctic, and Tropics.  

B,   the last time Earth chose spring as the time of year to to flip the ENSO scrip, - to +, the whole planet did something not seen ever before: rose almost a half deg C within a two month span of time.   Not sure if magnitude of ENSO means anything to that?  - but I'll tell ya, it doesn't intuitively 'feel' very comforting seeing the environmental cues going so massive with the ensuing +ENSO state. 

 

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

March-April 2026 NAO of +4.08 fits the warm Earth pattern going forward, that I have started to observe happening (notice how much of the N. Hemisphere is warm in the next 4 months: these composites are not AGW weighted, old analogs are equal to new analogs)

The pattern rolls forward to some +NAO conditions, at least early on, in the Following Winter (26-27)

FWIW, it appears as of the current GEFS 14 day forecast that we’re probably headed for a net relatively small -NAO for May as a whole.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

FWIW, it appears as of the current GEFS 14 day forecast that we’re heading for a net small -NAO for May as a whole.

Believe it or not, April and May have a slight inverse correlation. There is 0.1 tendency for the NAO in these months to reverse each other. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, this is why I don't think the Modoki is really going to matter.

09-10 showed that we can get a good winter out of a strong modoki el nino. We just need a good blocking pattern.