2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[jaxjagman]

Reckon its good news only being Oct,but you really hate to see Phoons going to East China,and  not recurving,never works out very well

[LakePaste25]

17 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Reckon its good news only being Oct,but you really hate to see Phoons going to East China,and  not recurving,never works out very well

Pac jet will likely move equatorward sometime in mid to late November. If this were a Modoki or neutral we would be gearing up for the classic +TNH/-EPO/+PNA and a cold pattern in the east, but since it’s a super nino it will extend into Cali and that’s way too far east for us. 

[mitchnick]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We'll see what happens....don't get me wrong, the DJFM period will be warm in the mean...no two ways about that.

How warm and storm tracks are all that matter to me since it'sall about snowfallfor me. In fact, BN temps imby do not guarantee snow with last year being a perfect example. I'm more than willing to roll the dice with any kind of Niño. 

[qg_omega]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No issue with that....December should be similar.

December looks like historic warmth, +10 to +15

[qg_omega]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

How warm and storm tracks are all that matter to me since it'sall about snowfallfor me. In fact, BN temps imby do not guarantee snow with last year being a perfect example. I'm more than willing to roll the dice with any kind of Niño. 

Your area will see the warmest anomalies in the nation

[jaxjagman]

16 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Pac jet will likely move equatorward sometime in mid to late November. If this were a Modoki or neutral we would be gearing up for the classic +TNH/-EPO/+PNA and a cold pattern in the east, but since it’s a super nino it will extend into Cali and that’s way too far east for us. 

Do agree,you might alrady be seeing this in the extened period,but right now a phoon going into East Asia is going to cause a Upper Level Ridge to build into the Sea of Japan,then days after into the plains and NE,Emembles show this very well

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Ray et al,

A similar theme to what Ray emphasized last month remains even nearly a month later where the really impressive +AAM emphasis is mainly 30S to 30N:

 

 Is it normal during El Nino for the +AAM (atmosphere rotating faster than the solid earth as I understand it), which we know is characterized as El Niñoish, to usually be strongest mainly in the 30S to 30N latitudes (with the highest near the equator) since that is nearer to the Nino regions than latitudes outside of that region? If so, do the regions outside of 30S to 30N normally get consistently positive during strong El Niños? Do they ever consistently average +AAM for long periods or is that typically relegated to 30S to 30N even during the subsequent N hem. winter?

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By the way, the relative AAM by lat. above is not surprisingly still supporting a very strong global relative mean +AAM with it back >+3 since Oct 12th:

This tied into what I have been arguing....there are going to continue to be other competing forces dictating the weather in the mid latitudes....in addition to some competing convection in the central ENSO zones, there is another high latitude teleconnection at play that is tied to the Kuroshio current.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

December looks like historic warmth, +10 to +15

I think that is extreme....probably between 1997 and 2015 anomalies as competed to 91-20 baseline.