2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

No, Cpc uses roni instead of oni because climate change was interfering with the enso signal they made a purposeful effort to remove cc. In fact climate change probably weakened this el nino by keeping the wpac warmer then it normally would be during this strong of a nino  that likely prevented as strong ( even if its still be very strong and in many ways record breaking) of a eastward shift in deep convection which has thus meant that while the trade winds have been extremely weak or reversed they are running only slightly ahead of 1997 despite nino 3.4 itself running much higher. Now did climate change raise nino 3.4 sst sure, but because the tropics have warmed the sst threshold for deep convection ( and thus heat distribution thru latent heating) has gone up meaning cc does not mean more heat is being disturbed in the main way enso actually impacts our weather. 

 I cannot overemphasize how important what I bolded above is. This idea is well explained at the link below, which I recently posted:

 

Significant Increase in Sea Surface Temperature at the Genesis of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems

Using satellite observations and a high-resolution global climate model, we show that this threshold has undergone a significant warming trend during the past several decades and will continue to increase in the future. This warming trend is closely related to the changes in the tropical mean SST. A constant relationship between the SST threshold and upper-tropospheric temperature is found in both the current climate and a warming climate, which corroborates the argument that tropospheric temperatures in the tropics approximately follow a moist adiabatic adjustment.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101950

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

No, Cpc uses roni instead of oni because climate change was interfering with the enso signal they made a purposeful effort to remove cc. In fact climate change probably weakened this el nino by keeping the wpac warmer then it normally would be during this strong of a nino  that likely prevented as strong ( even if its still be very strong and in many ways record breaking) of a eastward shift in deep convection which has thus meant that while the trade winds have been extremely weak or reversed they are running only slightly ahead of 1997 despite nino 3.4 itself running much higher. Now did climate change raise nino 3.4 sst sure, but because the tropics have warmed the sst threshold for deep convection ( and thus heat distribution thru latent heating) has gone up meaning cc does not mean more heat is being disturbed in the main way enso actually impacts our weather. 

I understand what you are saying, but I feel as though you are viewing it backwards....more heat in the western pacific absolutely triggers a stronger El Niño response from the tropical atmosphere because the earth is trying to redistribute said heat...why do yo think the strongest of El Niño events usually occur on the heels of solar max? Now, if there remains enough residual heat in the western Pacific, then it can create a competing influence that acts to mitigate the warm ENSO expression throughout the extra tropical hemisphere, as we saw in 2023...but let me ask you this...why do you think we have seen two warm ENSO events this strong just three years apart, which is unprecedented in recorded history....I know where my money is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I cannot overemphasize how important what I bolded above is. This idea is well explained at the link below, which I recently posted:

 

Significant Increase in Sea Surface Temperature at the Genesis of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems

Using satellite observations and a high-resolution global climate model, we show that this threshold has undergone a significant warming trend during the past several decades and will continue to increase in the future. This warming trend is closely related to the changes in the tropical mean SST. A constant relationship between the SST threshold and upper-tropospheric temperature is found in both the current climate and a warming climate, which corroborates the argument that tropospheric temperatures in the tropics approximately follow a moist adiabatic adjustment.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101950

The western Pacific was absolutely warming faster than the eastern Pacific over the past decade.

Good discussion....sure beats the hell out of "warm and rainy".

[Prismshine Productions]

Pretty sure Forky missed the nice season we had last year...honest question [mention=63]forkyfork[/mention], what would you need to see to forecast a decent winter? It was petty obvious to a lot of folks that the combination of high solar/very strong easterly QBO and modest-eastern biased La Nina would yield a plethora of chances last winter....
I get that the ridges were larger, troughs smaller as compared to similar patterns 50 years ago...not the point-

Yeah I mean... Here is a good example, from the time we moved to Vermont:

'23-24: 42.5", -14.0" below avg (avg. 56.5" imby)
'24-25: 60.1", +3.6" above avg
'25-26: 64.3", +7.8" above avg

Two above average seasons
Yet the net is still -2.6" across the three years.

Weather is dynamic and fluid, so even in blow torch winters (like this coming one) there will be chances and breaks in that pattern that yeild chances. Any snow is good snow in cases like this.

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[Jebman]

20 hours ago, forkyfork said:

this event is stronger and further east plus we have 30 years of warming on top of it. come on man

That's a good point, forky. I'd forgotten about the 30 years of warming on top of what is a very strong Nino event.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

 

 

Yeah I mean... Here is a good example, from the time we moved to Vermont:

'23-24: 42.5", -14.0" below avg (avg. 56.5" imby)
'24-25: 60.1", +3.6" above avg
'25-26: 64.3", +7.8" above avg

Two above average seasons
Yet the net is still -2.6" across the three years.

Weather is dynamic and fluid, so even in blow torch winters (like this coming one) there will be chances and breaks in that pattern that yeild chances. Any snow is good snow in cases like this.

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

 

 

I was originally going to Vermont in late January, but the first Nor'easter happened. I ended up going the weekend of March 7-9, and that point, the winter was just about over. I got temps in the mid-50s/lower 60s each day. I stayed in Manchester, and had to drive up to Weston on the last morning to see some frozen weather.

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand what you are saying, but I feel as though you are viewing it backwards....more heat in the western pacific absolutely triggers a stronger El Niño response from the tropical atmosphere because the earth is trying to redistribute said heat...why do yo think the strongest of El Niño events usually occur on the heels of solar max? Now, if there remains enough residual heat in the western Pacific, then it can create a competing influence that acts to mitigate the warm ENSO expression throughout the extra tropical hemisphere, as we saw in 2023...but let me ask you this...why do you think we have seen two warm ENSO events this strong just three years apart, which is unprecedented in recorded history....I know where my money is.

It feels like we have started to see non-linear shifts following these major heat releases to the atmosphere from the accumulated excess heat stored in the oceans. If you think about it we had a very similar climate from the late 1800s through about 1982.

Sure there was some warming from 1885 to 1982, but nothing all that dramatic. Since the coldest winters of that era occurred in the late 1970s.

Then the 1982-1983 super El Niño gave a slight bump to temperatures which remained about steady until 1997-1998.

Following the 1997-1998 heat release, the greatest warming occurred in the Arctic several years later from 2005 to 2012. So the state of the Arctic sea ice shifted to much younger around 2007 and continues to this day in the same range.

Then the next major heat release in 2015-2016 dramatically warmed our winters to the point that places like NYC only saw their next long term colder winter after 2014-2015 a full 11 years later in 2025-2026.

The major climatic shift following 2015-2016 was the rapid warming and ridge expansion east of Japan beginning around 2018-2019 which has lead to this persistent record -PDO run.

The heat release in 2023-2024 lead to the warmest CONUS winter to that point. 2025-2026 finished close to the warmest also but our little corner of the world finally got a cold winter after 11 years.

But the geographic footprint relative to the rest of the CONUS was very small. It didn’t take away from the fact that it was an enjoyable winter for many here. 

Nino 1+2 never fully cooled off following 2023-2024 and gave us the Nino-like December 2024 with the record +PNA for a La Niña.

Now this is the first time 2 El Niños this strong have occurred only 3 years apart. It feels like the big shift following 2023-2024 was a warming of the EPAC which had been the one region of the planet that had resisted the warming through 2022-2023. Many papers were written about the famous EPAC cold tongue.

Now this current warming there has exceeded anything that has occurred in the past.  This event into 2027 is going to be the greatest heat release to a higher baseline than all the previous events.

So we don’t fully understand the shifts that will occur following this jump to a much warmer climate as we head into the late 2020s and then early 2030s. 

This EPAC warming since 2023-2024 in the chart below has been unprecedented.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It feels like we have started to see non-linear shifts following these major heat releases to the atmosphere from the accumulated excess heat stored in the oceans. If you think about it we had a very similar climate from the late 1800s through about 1982.

Sure there was some warming from 1885 to 1982, but nothing all that dramatic. Since the coldest winters of that era occurred in the late 1970s.

Then the 1982-1983 super El Niño gave a slight bump to temperatures which remained about steady until 1997-1998.

Following the 1997-1998 heat release, the greatest warming occurred in the Arctic several years later from 2005 to 2012. So the state of the Arctic sea ice shifted to much younger around 2007 and continues to this day in the same range.

Then the next major heat release in 2015-2016 dramatically warmed our winters to the point that places like NYC only saw their next long term colder winter after 2014-2015 a full 11 years later in 2025-2026.

The major climatic shift following 2015-2016 was the rapid warming and ridge expansion east of Japan beginning around 2018-2019 which has lead to this persistent record -PDO run.

The heat release in 2023-2024 lead to the warmest CONUS winter to that point. 2025-2026 finished close to the warmest also but our little corner of the world finally got a cold winter after 11 years.

But the geographic footprint relative to the rest of the CONUS was very small. It didn’t take away from the fact that it was an enjoyable winter for many here. 

Nino 1+2 never fully cooled off following 2023-2024 and gave us the Nino-like December 2024 with the record +PNA for a La Niña.

Now this is the first time 2 El Niños this strong have occurred only 3 years apart. It feels like the big shift following 2023-2024 was a warming of the EPAC which had been the one region of the planet that had resisted the warming through 2022-2023. Many papers were written about the famous EPAC cold tongue.

Now this current warming there has exceeded anything that has occurred in the past.  This event into 2027 is going to be the greatest heat release to a higher baseline than all the previous events.

So we don’t fully understand the shifts that will occur following this jump to a much warmer climate as we head into the late 2020s and then early 2030s. 

This EPAC warming since 2023-2024 in the chart below has been unprecedented.

 

 

 

Yes, this is what I was getting at....I understand that the baseline warming elevates that critical threshold for convection, but the warming across the eastern Pacific was lagging the west Pacific, so these recent potent El Nino events are part of a concerted effort to neutralize that...especially this latter, record surge. It's a battle, so the expression of warm ENSO has been masked to an extent, which is what @ensonerd1233e343was driving at. The antecedent warm west/cool east stratification and the record warm ENSO push are two competing forces, the latter attempting to restore a prior baseline in the midst of rapid GW.

You're right...no one knows for sure how this will all work out, and I appreciate the different perspectives.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It feels like we have started to see non-linear shifts following these major heat releases to the atmosphere from the accumulated excess heat stored in the oceans. If you think about it we had a very similar climate from the late 1800s through about 1982.

Sure there was some warming from 1885 to 1982, but nothing all that dramatic. Since the coldest winters of that era occurred in the late 1970s.

Then the 1982-1983 super El Niño gave a slight bump to temperatures which remained about steady until 1997-1998.

I'd argue that the 80s slight warming resulted more following the 1986-88 double el nino, rather than the 1982-83 el nino. We still got cold, below zero temps here in PHL in January 1984 and January 1985. Besides, global temperatures didn't really reach new records until 1987/88 (following the latter el nino). After 1988, we still got some cold months (like October 1988 or December 1989), but the frequency quickly declined, and below zero temps became pretty much a thing of the past (save for January 19, 1994).

So, we can probably extend the similar climate to about 1985 or 1986.

[GaWx]

 The last 10 days of the PDO have had a decent rise overall though nothing extreme:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's a little dot, but +12c has appeared in the subsurface on TAO/Triton for the first time ever. That's +22F, 58f would be 80f. 

[GaWx]

New JMA H5 winter maps from NE forum post: this is what it appears to me that the maps are showing

DJF: strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO

 

Dec: slight +PNA, ~neutral EPO, slight -AO to neutral AO, slight +NAO

 

Jan: strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO

 

Does anyone disagree with my opinion on what these maps are showing for these indices?

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I disagree with a monster N. Pacific trough in the DJFM mean, in the reality of what will happen. 

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I disagree with a monster N. Pacific trough in the DJFM mean, in the reality of what will happen. 

You just can't get over Pearl Harbor.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You just can't get over Pearl Harbor.

Seasonal models have a strong default ENSO bias. Pretty sad really, these are the front leading forecasting tools. They have a mean of like -100 to -120dm for DJFM, which is climo Super Nino. I probably give that a 5% chance of happening, completely out of sync with recent patterns.