2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know how you can emphatically cite how much MC influence there was in 2023, then dismiss any influence of the central basin this season....yes, El Nino is stronger, but it's not omnipotent, as evidenced by the PDO resistance owed to the Japanese warm pool.

Anyway, we'll see what happens....good chatting, as always.

The Sep of 2026 MJO has been very different from that of Sep of 2023:

Sep of 2023 (blue): all in MC/IO

 

Sep of 2026: none in MC/IO 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The Sep of 2026 MJO has been very different from that of Sep of 2023:

Sep of 2023 (blue): all in MC/IO

 

Sep of 2026: none in MC/IO 

No doubt...the issue is whether it will be virtually all eastern Pacific, or some intervals of central Pacific influence will be at play.

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No doubt...the is whether it will be virtually all eastern Pacific, or some intervals of central Pacific influence will be at play.

 Here in the SE, I prefer either EPAC or CPAC dominating it to the MC dominating because that would normally mean a much reduced influence of the SE ridge/colder overall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Here in the SE, I prefer either EPAC or CPAC dominating it to the MC dominating because that would normally mean a much reduced influence of the SE ridge/colder overall.

I think we all would take anything over MC forcing, which is the worst.....another thing to think about is if this El Nino is strong enough to pull all of the forcing east, as Chris seems to imply, then that would eradicate any MC influence....which he has stated in the past has acted to accentuate the warmth in recent El Nino events relative to past events, so this season could end up a bit cooler due to that....lots to think about. A bit of MC influence could leak into central forcing, but not east.

[GaWx]

 Were in another very long -SOI streak, 47 days!

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

[GaWx]

 Wow, the WCS daily PDO continues to plunge back down as it’s fallen to -1.74 in the midst of a record strong El Niño! How is this happening? It was -1.10 just 5 days ago.

[Yanksfan]

48 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Wow, the WCS daily PDO continues to plunge back down as it’s fallen to -1.74 in the midst of a record strong El Niño! How is this happening? It was -1.10 just 5 days ago.

Despite how strong this El Niño gets its influence over the pattern will be restricted due to the fact that it’s not coupled. Expect a wide range of variables with the overall pattern this winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Wow, the WCS daily PDO continues to plunge back down as it’s fallen to -1.74 in the midst of a record strong El Niño! How is this happening? It was -1.10 just 5 days ago.

A couple of guys online, Ryan Hall and Mark Margavage, seem to think the -PDO could have a colder influence in the east because the monster GOA low that triggers the huge Pac jet may not be. I don't think that makes sense....-PDO/El Niño is worse heights are higher in the se and any cool ENSO influence is like a Modoki La Niña constructively interfering with east-based El Niño, so the any Aleutian riding would likely not be poleward. 

Weenie-logic. I'm with Chris on that.

[LakePaste25]

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A couple of guys online, Ryan Hall and Mark Margavage, seem to think the -PDO could have a colder influence in the east because the monster GOA low that triggers the huge Pac jet may not be. I don't think that make sense....-PDO/El Niño is worse heights are higher in the se and any cool ENSO influence is like a Modoki La Niña constructively interfering with east-based El Niño, so the any Aleutian riding would likely not be poleward. 

Weenie-logic. I'm with Chris on that.

Yeah it’s not as simple as “if I have competing cool ENSO influences, I am subtracting from the super El Niño which makes the pattern better for the east.” By that logic, 2023-24 should’ve been cold but it wasn’t. I am actually disappointed that the -PDO keeps dropping further because that’s bad for us. Although I still maintain that the PDO won’t really matter so much in a season like this either way. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Wow, the WCS daily PDO continues to plunge back down as it’s fallen to -1.74 in the midst of a record strong El Niño! How is this happening? It was -1.10 just 5 days ago.

As 40/70 Benchmark would say, the kiss of death for the Winter

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, Yanksfan said:

Despite how strong this El Niño gets its influence over the pattern will be restricted due to the fact that it’s not coupled. Expect a wide range of variables with the overall pattern this winter.

Yeah, seasonal models showing -200dm monthly +PNA in the N. Pacific doesn't seem likely. They are heavily ENSO-bias, need to be reprogrammed

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A couple of guys online, Ryan Hall and Mark Margavage, seem to think the -PDO could have a colder influence in the east because the monster GOA low that triggers the huge Pac jet may not be. I don't think that make sense....-PDO/El Niño is worse heights are higher in the se and any cool ENSO influence is like a Modoki La Niña constructively interfering with east-based El Niño, so the any Aleutian riding would likely not be poleward. 

Weenie-logic. I'm with Chris on that.

Yep I am seeing videos on YouTube about  competing factors with the strong El Niño that may make this winter interesting especially the PDO.

 Hopefully they are right. Nothing like a mild rainy winter. We usually  only get a month or two of snow. We dont need 12 months of rain. 

Weather with Travis is also another person who thinks that. His forecasts are really good. Check him out. He is a former chief Meteorologist.

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You mean 1.2?

I just showed you the precip anomalies....they are higher in region 3.4 than in regions 3 and 1.2. I do agree that the forcing is sheared due to the warmth on the eastern flank of ENSO, but it's not as large of an area as the central node of warmth. Again, all I am arguing for is a nice stretch mid season when that central area takes hold....not a 2002-2003 or 2009-2010 like outcome.

The big story as we head into October is that the 500mb ridge is setting up further south than the recent seasonal models were forecasting. This has been the case each month going back to May and June.

The October El Nino ridge is typically located over the EPO region of NW Canada and Alaska. The forecasts drop this ridge down into the CONUS at least for early October. We’ll need to see what happens mid to late month for a complete picture.

So if this model error pattern continues into the winter and spring, then the typical Nino ridge north of the Great Lakes would adjust further south than previous super El Niño events.

The December ridge can typically be further south anyway to some extent. So the big test will probably come JFM. It will be interesting to see how things work out.

This stronger mid-latitude ridge axis since the late spring is causing the PDO to remain negative and the AMO positive. It’s also evident to the AAM disparity that you noted. 
 

New forecasts for early October
 

 

Seasonal forecast from early September 

Typical October El Niño pattern

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The big story as we head into October is that the 500mb ridge is setting up further south than the recent seasonal models were forecasting. This has been the case each month going back to May and June.

The October El Nino ridge is typically located over the EPO region of NW Canada and Alaska. The forecasts drop this ridge down into the CONUS at least for early October. We’ll need to see what happens mid to late month for a complete picture.

So if this model error pattern continues into the winter and spring, then the typical Nino ridge north of the Great Lakes would adjust further south than previous super El Niño events.

The December ridge can typically be further south anyway to some extent. So the big test will probably come JFM. It will be interesting to see how things work out.

This stronger mid-latitude ridge axis since the late spring is causing the PDO to remain negative and the AMO positive. It’s also evident to the AAM disparity that you noted. 
 

New forecasts for early October
 

 

Seasonal forecast from early September 

Typical October El Niño pattern

 

 

 

Funny you mention that because this is my early-front runner-plot for December:

Note the location of the ridge relative to the position on the EURO seasonal:

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah it’s not as simple as “if I have competing cool ENSO influences, I am subtracting from the super El Niño which makes the pattern better for the east.” By that logic, 2023-24 should’ve been cold but it wasn’t. I am actually disappointed that the -PDO keeps dropping further because that’s bad for us. Although I still maintain that the PDO won’t really matter so much in a season like this either way. 

This is the trap that I fell into going into the 2023-2024 season....all it means is competing forces, but there are no guarantees that the "forces" are good.

I bombed that season, but haven't had a bad one since....learned a ton.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Yep I am seeing videos on YouTube about  competing factors with the strong El Niño that may make this winter interesting especially the PDO.

 Hopefully they are right. Nothing like a mild rainy winter. We usually  only get a month or two of snow. We dont need 12 months of rain. 

Weather with Travis is also another person who thinks that. His forecasts are really good. Check him out. He is a former chief Meteorologist.

I've seen him....but sorry, that makes absolutely no sense to me. All that will do in an El Nino is act to raise se heights, which makes it warmer and adds an element of destructive interference to opportunities for east coast cyclogenesis.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

As 40/70 Benchmark would say, the kiss of death for the Winter

I still think it will eventually spike to near neutral.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@Stormchaserchuck1What are your thoughts on this with respect to the potential influence of the lower PDO and record warm eastern flank of ENSO?

residual cool ENSO influence in combination with the record OHC over the eastern half of the ENSO region is one key factor that may be cause for some deviation from that season with respect to both the predominate storm track, as well as the temperature pattern over the southern and eastern US.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still think it will eventually spike to near neutral.

EPS with a >5940dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands at Hr 360

It's completely backed of the <-250dm at D10.. now models have like -150dm max and the pattern only lasts 3-4 days

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

EPS with a >5940dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands at Hr 360

It's completely backed of the <-250dm at D10.. now models have like -150dm max and the pattern only lasts 3-4 days

Sneak Preview of the new EURO seasonal:

2023-2024

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still think it will eventually spike to near neutral.

You can see a the continuous 500mb mid-latitude ridge from Japan across to the CONUS drove another big PDO drop in September.

This has been a repeating theme during the 2020s. PDO attempts to go neutral than makes another big decline.

The record warm subsurface east of Japan to south of the Aleutians tells the story.

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see a the continuous 500mb mid-latitude ridge from Japan across to the CONUS drove another big PDO drop in September. This has been a repeating theme during the 2020s. PDO attempts to go neutral than makes another drop. The record warm subsurface east of Japan to south of the Aleutians tells the story.

 

 

 

 

Yep....no doubt. I don't dispute any of that...the neutralization of the PDO is a guess on my part.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Stormchaserchuck1What are your thoughts on this with respect to the potential influence of the lower PDO and record warm eastern flank of ENSO?

residual cool ENSO influence in combination with the record OHC over the eastern half of the ENSO region is one key factor that may be cause for some deviation from that season with respect to both the predominate storm track, as well as the temperature pattern over the southern and eastern US.

 

You got it with those correlation maps.. lack of a SE trough accentuates SE Canada ridge, or extends it south. 

The issue I think is - what is the Pacific pattern in that circumstance? It may favor a ridge NE of Japan or west-based -PNA with the NPH area off the West coast (most impacted region of east-based Nino) having a negative anomaly. I don't think the EPO and WPO are big parts of the ENSO/PDO, a little more random further north than what we are discussing. Negative EPO could come to our rescue this Winter but that index is the hardest to predict seasonally. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You got it with those correlation maps.. lack of a SE trough accentuates SE Canada ridge, or extends it south. 

The issue I think is - what is the Pacific pattern in that circumstance? It may favor a ridge NE of Japan or west-based -PNA with the NPH area off the West coast (most impacted region of east-based Nino) having a negative anomaly. I don't think the EPO and WPO are big parts of the ENSO/PDO, a little more random further north than what we are discussing. Negative EPO could come to our rescue this Winter but that index is the hardest to predict seasonally. 

I was just thinking that this is likely our way out of the 2023-redux hell.....the EPO and WPO were both dreadful, and we seem to have seen a bit of a decadal shift in that respect after a several year stretch that was pretty bad.

Your NAO period is about done....must have largely neutralized...

[LibertyBell]

On 9/27/2026 at 7:55 AM, bluewave said:

This may be the first time so early in the season that a low during and El Niño year backed all the way into the Jersey Shore from the east.

The perfect storm back in October 1991 looped offshore but didn’t make it all the way back to the coast. The January 1992 storm backed in off the ocean into the Delmarva. But the Christmas 1994 subtropical low did make it all the way back to the coast from the east.

These patterns are mostly a result of very strong 500 mb ridging north of the Great Lakes and into the Canadian Maritimes  preventing the storms from escaping to the east of Cape Cod like we usually see with coastal low tracks. 

This month the record ridge over the south was able to build north of the Great Lakes resulting in the capture of the east coast storm. 

Now the recurving typhoons are giving us a strong +WPO +EPO pattern in early October which we typically see during La Niña patterns this time of year. But this is only a snapshot of early October and could shift again mid to late month. 

Did you mean December 1992 Chris? That storm was far more historic than this one.

On 9/27/2026 at 10:37 AM, bluewave said:

I think that’s why the long range models continue the WWBs and the extreme east based nature of this event right into next June. 

 

Like 1983 it won't stop a historic hot summer for next year.

On 9/27/2026 at 11:31 AM, mitchnick said:

I was surprised to see as well how much the Conus, especially east of the Rockies, stays at or BN for weeks after that week. And the AN is not excessive.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202609260000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202610050000

 

On 9/22/2026 at 9:50 AM, bluewave said:

It’s not so far-fetched when you consider a much weaker event in 1982-1983 lingered into June and July 1983.

Yes but 1983 had an exceptional endless hot summer from June through September so the el nino did not make the summer cooler.

On 9/22/2026 at 2:28 PM, bluewave said:

One of reasons February 1983 had such a memorable snowstorm and 1998 didn’t was probably related to how east based 1998 was in February.

1982-1983 really didn’t become east based until after the winter was over. It was more full-basin in February compared to 1998.

 

1982-83 and 2015-16 had some similarities. 

On 9/22/2026 at 7:40 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Thats crazy about 1997-98. Here its more frequent snow so its basically in the end getting less than normal during strong nino. Theres no worries about it not snowing. Even on the coast where a big storm or lack thereof is often the defining moment of the season, i suspect a completely snowless winter is very difficult to achieve. Even an identical pattern to 1997-98 would yield different sensible weather and likely some snow in nyc if it happened again.

If anything it would be less snow than 1997-98 as that late March event was a complete fluke and the airports got less snow. 2001-02 had even less snow. At the coast latitude doesn't really matter unless you're north of 42N you have the potential to be completely shut out of snow. Both 1982-83 and 2015-16 were far better for snow than 1997-98 was with much more late season blocking. In April 1983 JFK had their latest snowfall on record.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1982-83 and 2015-16 had some similarities. 

Both are elite polar analogs.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was just thinking that this is likely our way out of the 2023-redux hell.....the EPO and WPO were both dreadful, and we seem to have seen a bit of a decadal shift in that respect after a several year stretch that was pretty bad.

Your NAO period is about done....must have largely neutralized...

Looks slightly negative overall.. with seasonal models. I just don't know that I think we are in a -NAO time right now

[LibertyBell]

On 9/28/2026 at 6:28 AM, bluewave said:

Even though the CFS forecast was too weak with the current all-time daily +5 Nino 1+2, it has a 2nd peak late next spring into the early summer.

These very long range forecasts aren’t as accurate. But even the Euro extended is showing something similar.

1982-1983 had a second Nino 1+2 peak in June 1983 which was stronger than the one from the fall. But this fall is so much stronger than 1982 that the models have a lower peak late next spring. 

The 1983-1984 La Niña was significantly weaker than 1998-1999 since it got off to such a late start with a much weaker cold pool.

We’ll get a new update on October 5th to see if it has the same forecast idea from the August 5th extension. The Euro was much closer to the current +5 than the CFS.

 

 

 

 

The summer of 1983 behaved like a la Nina though from June through September with the endless historic heat.  I see the same thing for next summer.

On 9/28/2026 at 8:02 AM, bluewave said:

The current forecasts have it more east based mid-season than 1982-1983. That one was more full basin than 1997-1998  during the winter. With it becoming most east based late spring into early summer 1983. Which was part of the reason that February 1983 was better than 1998.

Same reason as 2015-16 with the Kara block added in? Did we have such a block in February 1983 too?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looks slightly negative overall.. with seasonal models. I just don't know that I think we are in a -NAO time right now

I agree....they way I interpret that is some second half volatility. I don't see the season averaging -NAO. I think wave reflection is the path this year....like 1983. I don't think a reversal is in the cards. Guidance may try to flag one, and then back off.