2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know how you can emphatically cite how much MC influence there was in 2023, then dismiss any influence of the central basin this season....yes, El Nino is stronger, but it's not omnipotent, as evidenced by the PDO resistance owed to the Japanese warm pool.

Anyway, we'll see what happens....good chatting, as always.

The Sep of 2026 MJO has been very different from that of Sep of 2023:

Sep of 2023 (blue): all in MC/IO

 

Sep of 2026: none in MC/IO 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The Sep of 2026 MJO has been very different from that of Sep of 2023:

Sep of 2023 (blue): all in MC/IO

 

Sep of 2026: none in MC/IO 

No doubt...the issue is whether it will be virtually all eastern Pacific, or some intervals of central Pacific influence will be at play.

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No doubt...the is whether it will be virtually all eastern Pacific, or some intervals of central Pacific influence will be at play.

 Here in the SE, I prefer either EPAC or CPAC dominating it to the MC dominating because that would normally mean a much reduced influence of the SE ridge/colder overall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Here in the SE, I prefer either EPAC or CPAC dominating it to the MC dominating because that would normally mean a much reduced influence of the SE ridge/colder overall.

I think we all would take anything over MC forcing, which is the worst.....another thing to think about is if this El Nino is strong enough to pull all of the forcing east, as Chris seems to imply, then that would eradicate any MC influence....which he has stated in the past has acted to accentuate the warmth in recent El Nino events relative to past events, so this season could end up a bit cooler due to that....lots to think about. A bit of MC influence could leak into central forcing, but not east.

[GaWx]

 Were in another very long -SOI streak, 47 days!

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

[GaWx]

 Wow, the WCS daily PDO continues to plunge back down as it’s fallen to -1.74 in the midst of a record strong El Niño! How is this happening? It was -1.10 just 5 days ago.

[Yanksfan]

48 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Wow, the WCS daily PDO continues to plunge back down as it’s fallen to -1.74 in the midst of a record strong El Niño! How is this happening? It was -1.10 just 5 days ago.

Despite how strong this El Niño gets its influence over the pattern will be restricted due to the fact that it’s not coupled. Expect a wide range of variables with the overall pattern this winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Wow, the WCS daily PDO continues to plunge back down as it’s fallen to -1.74 in the midst of a record strong El Niño! How is this happening? It was -1.10 just 5 days ago.

A couple of guys online, Ryan Hall and Mark Margavage, seem to think the -PDO could have a colder influence in the east because the monster GOA low that triggers the huge Pac jet may not be. I don't think that make sense....-PDO/El Niño is worse heights are higher in the se and any cool ENSO influence is like a Modoki La Niña constructively interfering with east-based El Niño, so the any Aleutian riding would likely not be poleward. 

Weenie-logic. I'm with Chris on that.

[LakePaste25]

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A couple of guys online, Ryan Hall and Mark Margavage, seem to think the -PDO could have a colder influence in the east because the monster GOA low that triggers the huge Pac jet may not be. I don't think that make sense....-PDO/El Niño is worse heights are higher in the se and any cool ENSO influence is like a Modoki La Niña constructively interfering with east-based El Niño, so the any Aleutian riding would likely not be poleward. 

Weenie-logic. I'm with Chris on that.

Yeah it’s not as simple as “if I have competing cool ENSO influences, I am subtracting from the super El Niño which makes the pattern better for the east.” By that logic, 2023-24 should’ve been cold but it wasn’t. I am actually disappointed that the -PDO keeps dropping further because that’s bad for us. Although I still maintain that the PDO won’t really matter so much in a season like this either way. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Wow, the WCS daily PDO continues to plunge back down as it’s fallen to -1.74 in the midst of a record strong El Niño! How is this happening? It was -1.10 just 5 days ago.

As 40/70 Benchmark would say, the kiss of death for the Winter

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, Yanksfan said:

Despite how strong this El Niño gets its influence over the pattern will be restricted due to the fact that it’s not coupled. Expect a wide range of variables with the overall pattern this winter.

Yeah, seasonal models showing -200dm monthly +PNA in the N. Pacific doesn't seem likely. They are heavily ENSO-bias, need to be reprogrammed

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A couple of guys online, Ryan Hall and Mark Margavage, seem to think the -PDO could have a colder influence in the east because the monster GOA low that triggers the huge Pac jet may not be. I don't think that make sense....-PDO/El Niño is worse heights are higher in the se and any cool ENSO influence is like a Modoki La Niña constructively interfering with east-based El Niño, so the any Aleutian riding would likely not be poleward. 

Weenie-logic. I'm with Chris on that.

Yep I am seeing videos on YouTube about  competing factors with the strong El Niño that may make this winter interesting especially the PDO.

 Hopefully they are right. Nothing like a mild rainy winter. We usually  only get a month or two of snow. We dont need 12 months of rain. 

Weather with Travis is also another person who thinks that. His forecasts are really good. Check him out. He is a former chief Meteorologist.

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You mean 1.2?

I just showed you the precip anomalies....they are higher in region 3.4 than in regions 3 and 1.2. I do agree that the forcing is sheared due to the warmth on the eastern flank of ENSO, but it's not as large of an area as the central node of warmth. Again, all I am arguing for is a nice stretch mid season when that central area takes hold....not a 2002-2003 or 2009-2010 like outcome.

The big story as we head into October is that the 500mb ridge is setting up further south than the recent seasonal models were forecasting. This has been the case each month going back to May and June.

The October El Nino ridge is typically located over the EPO region of NW Canada and Alaska. The forecasts drop this ridge down into the CONUS at least for early October. We’ll need to see what happens mid to late month for a complete picture.

So if this model error pattern continues into the winter and spring, then the typical Nino ridge north of the Great Lakes would adjust further south than previous super El Niño events.

The December ridge can typically be further south anyway to some extent. So the big test will probably come JFM. It will be interesting to see how things work out.

This stronger mid-latitude ridge axis since the late spring is causing the PDO to remain negative and the AMO positive. It’s also evident to the AAM disparity that you noted. 
 

New forecasts for early October
 

 

Seasonal forecast from early September 

Typical October El Niño pattern