2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Prismshine Productions]

Yea, someone in the New England forum was trying to tell me were going to have a -PNA this winter...I was like, find a super El Niño that pulled that off.
-AO/+PNA means you can essentially eliminate the bottom dwelling seasons....even 1972 didn't. Now, maybe it will be bootleg, etc...but the season will average +PNA in the DJFM mean.
 

That was on me for not paying attention to the height lines

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[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, someone in the New England forum was trying to tell me were going to have a -PNA this winter...I was like, find a super El Niño that pulled that off.

-AO/+PNA means you can essentially eliminate the bottom dwelling seasons....even 1972 didn't. Now, maybe it will be bootleg, etc...but the season will average +PNA in the DJFM mean.

 

How funny would it be if we average +PNA in the seasonal mean, stemming from similarities in the arctic domain and not necessarily the equator. Just about everyone would miss it, assuming it's ENSO.

[GaWx]

This is the first time I recall seeing the white shading, which is warmer than a +5C anomaly, on the TAO surface maps. It is within the E section, in a narrow corridor just S of the equator and E of 110W.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looks like 9/2 is ~+0.40... should come in ~-0.10 for MJJAS. That would actually be our 2nd lowest NAO Winter in 14 years (CPC). I'll take the over on that (CPC), although there could be some ridging around 80-90N. 

My interpretation of that is volatility.....biased + first half, neutralish to perhaps even somewhat negative second half.....but AO should be negative.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

That was on me for not paying attention to the height lines

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Were you predicting -PNA for the season, though? What you are referring to is simply misinterpretation of a seasonal chart....I recall someone was telling me that the PNA would average negative. Anyway, NBD...I wasn't trying to call anyone out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

How funny would it be if we average +PNA in the seasonal mean, stemming from similarities in the arctic domain and not necessarily the equator. Just about everyone would miss it, assuming it's ENSO.

What do you mean, a ridge extending down from the arctic through the west coast, rather than a more traidtional, El Nino-forced PNA ridge?