Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 22 Author Share Posted July 22 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mmm I'm not sure those can be parsed out like that... "Actually the cold blob AGW based is just south of Greenland, which is a +NAO tendency. I'm pointing out a cold pool south of New Foundland. Here is the correlation composite " I would still proceed with interpretive caution. Look at it this way ... if the cold blob,due to AMOC flux variance is making that NF region "prone" to a colder expression, then a comparative failure in the index correlation is happening...because the former would mean that less forcing is causing the expression to take place. In short ... misleading a circulation mode that isn't so. That kind of shit is making the CC attribution seriously f with these mass field aspect. man I'm just saying... in the last 3 Winter's it's come within +0.25 of actual DJFM NAO each time. That can range from +2 to -2 so that's pretty good. It's hard to tell exact number this year because what I based it on, NCAR, has been discontinued, but based on TT dailies, it is negative right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 On 7/21/2026 at 9:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Guessing Feb 2015 was the one top-ten coldest. I wish we would focus a bit more on temp maxes instead of mean because I feel like the nocturnal element does inflate the degree of impact somewhat. I don't really care if its 21 on RAD nights instead of 18....I care how warm it is during the day and when it's precipitating. Don't get me wrong....I know it's warming, I'm not trying to steal anyone's climate change, but it's warming the most on clear nights and the days/stormy nights are most relevant to us. I had some posts a while back that focused on the temperatures during the days that .25 of an inch or more of precipitation fell in NYC. No surprise the average temperatures on those days were only cold enough for 2 out of the last 7 winters during 2020s to make it to average to above average snowfall. This is a function of both storm track and warming temperatures. The colder storm track day seasons were in 2020-2021 and 2025-2026. 2021-2022 made the list from ACY to ISP due to January 2022 being such an outstanding month for storms just east of the benchmark. So the batting average at ISP this decade is a little better at 3 out of 7 years reaching average to above average snowfall. This is a departure from the 2010s when we managed to have average to above average seasonal snowfall even during some of the warmest winters like 2015-2016 and 2016-2017. Those winters featured cold storm tracks. Your Dave Kingman reference was a good one when I mentioned how we have become an all or nothing type snowfall climate around NYC Metro since the 1990s. Either big home runs or strikeouts. Very few seasons in the middle near average anymore these days relative to pre 1990s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 I have a personal conjecture offering plausible explanation for the cold blob emergence. The NAO has been predominately positive since 2000. That means increased occurrences of west wind in the SS stressing distribution. There may in fact be an AMOC thing going on associated with CC... but, the anomalous amount of westerly wind/low level occurrences interacting with a region that's inherently covered by a very gossamer thermocline should really be explored as factoring in why that region is having trouble recovering from cold upwelling events, over time and aggregated, taking place at large scales. So, ... pretty simple idea really. But here is the NOA's going back many decades. There may in fact be some AMOC involved ..where if the AMOC is 'deflecting' S, due to more surface pooling in the super thermohaline circulation conditioning ( fluxing off Greenland of melt water...), then... introducing the westerly low level wind flux anomaly on balance, those two would certainly be easily and rightfully interpreted as a positive/constructive feed-back in cooling that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I have a personal conjecture offering plausible explanation for the cold blob emergence. The NAO has been predominately positive since 2000. That means increased occurrences of west wind in the SS stressing distribution. There may in fact be an AMOC thing going on associated with CC... but, the anomalous amount of westerly wind/low level occurrences interacting with a region that inherently covered by a very gossamer thermocline should really be explored as factoring in why that region is having trouble recovering from cold upwelling taking place at large scales. So, ... pretty simply idea really. But here is the NOA's going back many decades. There may in fact be some AMOC involved ..where if the AMOC is 'deflecting' S, due to more surface pooling in the super thermohaline circulation conditioning ( fluxing off Greenland of melt water...), then... introducing the westerly low level wind flux anomaly on balance, those two would certainly be easily and rightfully interpreted as a positive/constructive feed-back in cooling that region. Yeah, I have posted several times on this. Recent studies have found the cold blob has been more a result of stronger winds than related to the AMOC. But it’s possible the +NAO could be a result of other circulation changes from the warming that the climate models haven’t become advanced enough to detect. Anthony Masiello @antmasiello.bsky.social · 8mo Natural variability, in low frequency states of atmospheric circulation, is becoming increasingly likely as the main explanation for the North Atlantic warming hole. Sang-Ki Lee @sklee621.bsky.social · 8mo The Atlantic's warming hole is not a sign of the AMOC weakening, a new study suggests ocean2climate.org/2025/11/12/t... The Atlantic’s ‘Warming Hole’ Isn’t What You Think: 5 Surprising Truths From New Climate Research This blog post and the “Deep Drive” podcast on a new paper “Atmosphere-driven processes in shaping long-term climate variability in Greenland and the broader subpolar North Atlant… ocean2climate.org 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: The EPAC TC train has left the station…. I feel like every time Bluewave makes a post about how the North American pattern doesn’t resemble a super Nino, snowman posts some tweets about how coupled the Nino is. It’s like some passive aggressive disagreement with Bluewave. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 The North Pacific is indeed the last quadrant to respond (possibly due to the arctic) but I think it wakes up to El Niño in due time. It is responding well everywhere else in the world (including the raging jet in the Southern Pacific). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 38 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: The North Pacific is indeed the last quadrant to respond (possibly due to the arctic) but I think it wakes up to El Niño in due time. It is responding well everywhere else in the world (including the raging jet in the Southern Pacific). There has been a total collapse of the South Pacific High (“Anticyclone”). Something that hasn’t happened since 1997 and one of the main reasons for the inferno in region 1+2, along with the huge WWBs and DWKWs we’ve been seeing for months…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Nope, not at all. As Ray @40/70 Benchmark already stated earlier, the tropics and subtropics/++PMM are very clearly in full blown strong El Niño mode. At no point was I disagreeing with bluewave about the extratropical North Pacific. Changing the subject to the discussion above, as far as the NAO, no way on God’s green earth do I think the NAO averages negative this winter (Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) despite what some weenie accounts on twitter are saying. Super El Niño, descending solar activity off a big solar max, high geomag, +QBO….color me very, very skeptical of this big -NAO winter hype on social media Yea, both can be true.....Nino is epic in the tropics, but we still have some MC competition in mid latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, both can be true.....Nino is epic in the tropics, but we still have some MC competition in mid latitudes. I must be missing something because I don’t see a ton of MC competition. I agree the N Pac is not exhibiting your typical response but I think it could be due to something else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 4 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: I must be missing something because I don’t see a ton of MC competition. I agree the N Pac is not exhibiting your typical response but I think it could be due to something else. MJO isn't always the best tool because it doesn't show split forcing...check the Homollover (sp?) Anyway, the ridging this month in the NE has not been El Niño like....sure, you could blame the lack of correlation in the summer, but most other developing intense Nino events did not have it, and this one is developing faster. I think it's also important to mix in actual observations with the array or tools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: MJO isn't always the best tool because it doesn't show split forcing...check the Homollover (sp?) Anyway, the ridging this month in the NE has not been El Niño like....sure, you could blame the lack of correlation in the summer, but most other developing intense Nino events did not have it, and this one is developing faster. I think it's also important to mix in actual observations with the array or tools. Yeah, I mean some of this is just noise from TCs. W pac basin was also active in 1997. Just not ready to blame it on this because nearly the entire N PAC basin has seen above normal heights outside the subtropics. We will see. I really want to see where we are at by September. It does seem TCs out there are forming a bit west of 1997. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Looking at past OLR, it looks closest to 1997…maybe a tad west. It does have that broad convective signature across the basin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 Looking at past OLR, it looks closest to 1997…maybe a tad west. It does have that broad convective signature across the basin. The 30C isotherm continues to be pushed further east of the dateline by the constant WWBs. It’s extremely likely that it gets pushed all the way to 140W by November like the models are showing, which would be record-breaking. The developing parade of typhoons are only going to enhance the westerlies/WWBs going forward. The warm pool east of the dateline has moved the downwelling Kelvin wave generation area to around the dateline to 165W. This means it will take less time for warm water to be transported into the EPAC, thus El Nino will grow very quickly from here on out. A record-breaking historic event is guaranteed at this point. I think we see forcing possibly set up the furthest east on record by late fall/winter. Here is a taste of what is to come on this side of the hemisphere with the STJ…… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 The CONUS didn’t get the memo that it’s supposed to be having a cooler super El Niño summer. We knew something was going to be different with the record heat that began to emerge back in May. What if anything this says about the rest of the event remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: The CONUS didn’t get the memo that it’s supposed to be having a cooler super El Niño summer. We knew something was going to be different with the record heat that began to emerge back in May. What if anything this says about the rest of the event remains to be seen. Chris, June-July 1991 also didn’t get the memo (Also, May of 1991 was very warm): In addition, June-July of 1877 wasn’t cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 54 minutes ago, bluewave said: The CONUS didn’t get the memo that it’s supposed to be having a cooler super El Niño summer. We knew something was going to be different with the record heat that began to emerge back in May. What if anything this says about the rest of the event remains to be seen. Yea, all I need to see. This is what ultimately matters, so IMHO, you (collective) can shove all of the OLR, VP and MJO plots......we are having a cool ENSO July. Not what I want, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 30 minutes ago, GaWx said: Chris, June-July 1991 also didn’t get the memo (Also, May of 1991 was very warm): In addition, June-July of 1877 wasn’t cool. Another -PDO season. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 The current -SOI streak has now surpassed the 72 day streak of 1997 and is now at 74 days. Only 1998’s 100 days has been longer as far back as daily records go at Long-Paddock: https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 MJO was rather diffuse for the most part in July 1991, but notice the only appreciable amplitude was in the MC on the 7th-8th (phase 4) and...19th-22nd (phase 7) https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt This July, we are also getting huge amplitude in phase 8, but doesn't seem to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 Modern climate seems to have more of a disconnect between the mid latitudes and tropics, which would obviously impact the summer more, when the signals are weaker at baseline....perhaps this will change as we get into the fall given the magnitude of ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 CFS has a nice “back loaded idea” with the Canadian block becoming a -NAO later in the season. Take it with a grain of salt. IF (big if) you’re going to get anything out of this season, this would be the way to do it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 Just now, LakePaste25 said: CFS has a nice “back loaded idea” with the Canadian block becoming a -NAO later in the season. Take it with a grain of salt. IF (big if) you’re going to get anything out of this season, this would be the way to do it. Buy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: MJO was rather diffuse for the most part in July 1991, but notice the only appreciable amplitude was in the MC on the 7th-8th (phase 4) and...19th-22nd (phase 7) https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt This July, we are also getting huge amplitude in phase 8, but doesn't seem to matter. We will see. I’ll hold off until September because that’s when I would expect to start seeing some semblance of an Aleutian low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: We will see. I’ll hold off until September because that’s when I would expect to start seeing some semblance of an Aleutian low. Absolutely....basically what I am intimating. I am not discounting that at all.....just pointing out we aren't there yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 Everything @snowman19is pointing out about the magnitude of this event is spot-on, which is why there is hope that the pattern over the N Hemisphere grows more redolent of warm ENSO as we approach boreal winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Chris, June-July 1991 also didn’t get the memo (Also, May of 1991 was very warm): In addition, June-July of 1877 wasn’t cool. The -PDO/+AMO atmospheric pattern is the dominant player this summer so far across the CONUS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, all I need to see. This is what ultimately matters, so IMHO, you (collective) can shove all of the OLR, VP and MJO plots......we are having a cool ENSO July. Not what I want, but it is what it is. We are also relying on analogs that might as well be from an ancient timeline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We are also relying on analogs that might as well be from an ancient timeline. Yes, but that doesn't render them worthless...rather it's incumbent on a quality seasonal forecaster to apply the necessary modifcations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 As strong El Niño as it gets….. And the subsurface heat/DWKW is reloading and strengthening under the 30C warm pool and is going to get pushed to the South American coast in the next month by the DWKWs and WWBs. The thermocline depression is ridiculous Edit: @LakePaste25 The lines are showing the 20C isotherm depth vs climatology 20C isotherm depth in the thermocline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, all I need to see. This is what ultimately matters, so IMHO, you (collective) can shove all of the OLR, VP and MJO plots......we are having a cool ENSO July. Not what I want, but it is what it is. An interesting question is why the recent 2023 developing super El Niño was able to break from the warmer 2020s -PDO/+AMO summer atmospheric mid-latitude pattern and this one in 2026 hasn’t so far? We’ll have to just wait and see how things go heading into the fall and winter. Since a lingering -PDO atmospheric pattern could potentially alter the state of the Aleutian low and possibly even where the maximum STJ precipitation zones set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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