mitchnick Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 13 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: It says hottest month "on record" - official NOAA/NCEI records date to 1895. Irrelevant then. Wrong forum anyway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said: I’m towards the “it’ll be a canonically coupled event” camp. And for the record I disagreed with takes during 24-25 and 25-26 that we’ll see predominate RNA pattern (we didn’t). So i’m not just saying it because I want it to be warm. I think it would be warmer if El Niño DIDN'T take over entirely. Anyway, all I said was El Niño still has work to do....I never even implied that there is no chance that it will not take over the hemisphere entirely this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said: We will see. I don’t deny that there could be *some* destructive interference. I’m just arguing that the event will be so strong and well-coupled that it won’t have a significant outcome that diverges from the canonical El Niño winter pattern (GOA low, strong southern stream, above normal N Tier, and wet S tier). 97-98 likely had constructive interference. Very feasible....I don't debate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 2 hours ago, roardog said: Also the strong -PDO which we currently have that probably also ties into the MC influence. Globally there are big differences compared to 1997 at the moment and like you said earlier, it probably is NOT for the better if you’re a winter lover. Exactly. 2 hours ago, roardog said: You would think so but even 2015-2016 seemed to have some outside influence and that was a beast of an El Niño with a strong +PDO. We can’t even sniff a +PDO this year so far and it seems the North American pattern is making sure we know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 2 hours ago, roardog said: That’s the funny thing about 1997-1998. I recall there being more cold early in the winter than later in the winter which is kind of opposite what you think of with El Niño. Of course November was quite cold so there was probably quite a bit of lake effect that month. One memory for me that stands out from that winter was being on the SW edge of the Arctic airmass that eventually went on to produce the catastrophic Canadian ice storm. We started out with freezing rain but changed to rain before it got too bad. 1997-98 had a cold November with multiple snowfalls. It was definitely a front loaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Unfortunately, TAO doesn’t have buoy data for 160W. It has them at 170W and 155W. For July of 2015, TAO does confirm that 30C didn’t make it as far E as 155W. But it did make it to 170W at 2N and 2S though not to 5S: 2N: avg ~30.0C https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst2n170w_dy.ascii 2S: avg ~30.2C https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst2s170w_dy.ascii But it was <30C (~29.8C) at 5S: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst5s170w_dy.ascii ———————————— How does July 2026 compare to July 2015 at 170W? 2026 at 2N: avg ~30.35C or ~0.35C warmer than 2015 https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data2259457/sst2n170w_dy.ascii 2026 at 2S: avg ~30.60C or ~0.40C warmer than 2015 https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data2259457/sst2s170w_dy.ascii 2026 at 5S: N/A..so can’t compare ——————— Summary: TAO confirms that 2026 is currently notably warmer (~0.4C) than July 2015 at 170W. But the avg tropical SST has also warmed since 2015. But it hasn’t warmed by as much as it’s closer to 0.25C warming, which tells me that July 2026 is warmer than July 2015 at 170W by 0.15C even on a relative basis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I injected some sarcasm by mocking him a bit....guilty; but there was no need for the absurd racism accusation. Anyone with any familiarity with this thread knew what I was doing there. He has a tendency to respond to resistance in this truly vile manner that usually includes very derogatory insults, and in this case, a pathetic attempt to inject race as a means to vilify me rather than simply address the point. Primitive deflection tactic. When last winters cold was becoming imminent is when I first remember the bizarre slew of posts in different languages to say it wouldn't stay cold. When snowman cant find an English tweet to say warm is when winter lovers knew it was game on. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 3 hours ago, roardog said: Also the strong -PDO which we currently have that probably also ties into the MC influence. Globally there are big differences compared to 1997 at the moment and like you said earlier, it probably is NOT for the better if you’re a winter lover. 2 hours ago, roardog said: You could say that this year is its own oddball so far. A record El Niño for this time of year with a still strongly -PDO with a -PDO type of North American pattern. It just makes me leery that we’re suddenly going to see a flip to 1997 across North America. No doubt much of the rest of the globe is and will continue to look very Ninoish. I dont care if Nino peaks at 5.0...I really only care about the weather in my backyard. I mean, most weather weenies do. Any early thoughts for Michigan? Ive been thinking 2015-16 is a decent starting point but I've also been looking more into 1877-78. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 3 hours ago, roardog said: You would think so but even 2015-2016 seemed to have some outside influence and that was a beast of an El Niño with a strong +PDO. We can’t even sniff a +PDO this year so far and it seems the North American pattern is making sure we know that. Yeah, 1997-1998 was the last canonical super El Niño. The La Niña-like influence in December 2015 merging with the Nino standing wave was through the MJO 5. The precipitation impacts were also different from previous super El Niños. In 2023-2024 we saw another MJO excursion through the IO and MC during January when the Southeast ridge emerged. The pattern since May has seen the strongest heat and ridging across the CONUS outside a neutral or La Niña summer with a strong -PDO influence. The summer -PDO drop and +AMO increase has been a common feature during the 2020s. So there are multiple ways for competing or overlapping marine heatwaves to interact with an El Niño. This summer is the most extreme example of a dominant -PDO pattern across the CONUS at the same time a record super El Niño is strengthening. The 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 super El Niños showed that the interaction actually resulted in warmer winters conditions than 1997-1998. Both winters featured the El Niño ridge south of Hudson Bay building down further into the Eastern U.S. than normal. But even if this event found a way to have the canonical 1997-1998 response, a +3.9 event alone without any -PDO or MC forcing influence could easily surpass 1997-1998 in spots for warmth. Ridges have been getting stronger than troughs regardless of whether we have an El Niño or La Niña. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, 1997-1998 was the last canonical super El Niño. The La Niña-like influence in December 2015 merging with the Nino standing wave was through the MJO 5. The precipitation impacts were also different from previous super El Niños. In 2023-2024 we saw another MJO excursion through the IO and MC during January when the Southeast ridge emerged. The pattern since May has seen the strongest heat and ridging across the CONUS outside a neutral or La Niña summer with a strong -PDO influence. The summer -PDO drop and +AMO increase has been a common feature during the 2020s. So there are multiple ways for competing or overlapping marine heatwaves to interact with an El Niño. This summer is the most extreme example of a dominant -PDO pattern across the CONUS at the same time a record super El Niño is strengthening. The 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 super El Niños showed that the interaction actually resulted in warmer winters conditions than 1997-1998. Both winters featured the El Niño ridge south of Hudson Bay building down further into the Eastern U.S. than normal. But even if this event found a way to have the canonical 1997-1998 response, a +3.9 event alone without any -PDO or MC forcing influence could easily surpass 1997-1998 in spots for warmth. Ridges have been getting stronger than troughs regardless of whether we have an El Niño or La Niña. Chris, Keep in mind that the mild 2015-6 avg. in the E US was so heavily dominated by the warmest Dec on record in many locations. I assume you realize that Jan-Feb wasn’t mild in the E US outside of New England with Jan actually being chilly VA S and SW: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 2015-16 actually had several very cold periods nationally, it's just no one remembers because they never mapped cleanly on to calendar months. I had 5 inches of snow in December 2015, give or take - but it was so cold it didn't melt for three weeks in the shadows. On these images, light blue is 1F to 3F below average, and dark blue 3F to 5F below average. The light purple spots are 5F to 7F. That super heat wave at the end of January flushed out most of the cold in the North. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 2015-2016 has been referenced quite frequently for it's pretty abrupt transition to some wintry interludes throughout the NE during the second half...I wouldn't say they aren't remembered. It's just that they weren't as anomalous or long-lasting as the warmth in December, so the season was mild in the aggregate. I wouldn't be at all be surprised to see something similar this year. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 I’m leaning towards a more canonical super Nino response than 15-16, but not quite to the level of 97-98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Just now, LakePaste25 said: I’m leaning towards a more canonical super Nino response than 15-16, but not quite to the level of 97-98. 1982? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1982? Yeah…if you look at 2016, the convection is very far west. Should be east of that IMO although we will really put that theory to the test if it’s “not cool enough” to stop convection there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 July should be our first “fully coupled” month. Come August, will need to find a site that plots omega since NCAR is discontinued. Would like to compare it to past super nino July’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 12 Author Share Posted July 12 55 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: July should be our first “fully coupled” month. Come August, will need to find a site that plots omega since NCAR is discontinued. Would like to compare it to past super nino July’s. You really think this is fully coupled? This is typically a La Nina pattern 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 12 Author Share Posted July 12 June was AAO's 6th most extreme month on record, since 1979. 6/570. +2.506 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You really think this is fully coupled? This is typically a La Nina pattern Yes. Every indicator points to it. I’m not really too concerned with a summertime 500 mb dataset that has a sample size of 4. Much of the cool summer Ninos were derived from -NAO which is less correlated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 12 Author Share Posted July 12 Looking like July is going to be the 6th straight month with -PNA (CPC) 2026 0.79 -0.56 -1.74 -1.26 -1.27 -0.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 12 Author Share Posted July 12 I'll go warmer on the August pattern This one has nothing to do with -NAO/AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 that low west of the aleutians is something to watch since it actually has a meaningful correlation with less noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You really think this is fully coupled? This is typically a La Nina pattern I agree, but there are signs of troughiness forming in the east and ridging out west on the 12z Eps. You can see it happening if you put this link in motion. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071212&fh=0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 13 Author Share Posted July 13 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I agree, but there are signs of troughiness forming in the east and ridging out west on the 12z Eps. You can see it happening if you put this link in motion. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071212&fh=0 Maybe neutral in the Pacific. It's all High pressure at the very end Even a "Weak Nino" should be spinning up a low somewhere in the N. Pacific right now. We are obviously in a pattern that is more dominant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Maybe neutral. It's all High pressure at the very end Even a "Weak Nino" should be spinning up a low somewhere in the N. Pacific right now. We are obviously in a pattern that is more dominant Well, that slow change may just be as a result of the fast warming. Give it some time before dropping the lifeboats.lifeboat. Edit: Iow, the atmosphere just may need time to catch up to a Niño that has warmed as fast as this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 13 Author Share Posted July 13 I'm just thinking a 82-83, 97-98, 15-16 monster North Pacific High low pressure may be a thing of the past. Those were monster troughs, Super El Nino driven. Does the PDO really make that much of a difference? -PDO strongest 3 El Nino's. A little different south of the Aleutians lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 How often does something like this happen in the NW US in July during a strong El Niño? I assume hardly ever. Please correct me if I’m wrong. Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in at least these places: 1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long): ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN SITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934 LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948 MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937 SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907 BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998 2) N UT ..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY, UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN 2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002, 2021, AND 2022. 3) E ID: THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100 DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 13 Author Share Posted July 13 ^ 6000dm is extending all the way to just south of Canada. That has to be some kind of record. Jul-Aug correlation to ENSO. Forgive me for including August but these are the 2 hottest months of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 13 Author Share Posted July 13 111 in Billings, MT is insane. They just had snow in Montana 2 weeks ago! Do you guys notice this see-saw happening more times that not, although France is just exceeding and exceeding their records, not wavering back and forth between warm and cold there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said: July should be our first “fully coupled” month. Come August, will need to find a site that plots omega since NCAR is discontinued. Would like to compare it to past super nino July’s. https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_mon_tcc.html You can get VP here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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