2026-2027 El Nino

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The difference between 2015-2016  and 2023-2024 was that we got a great blocking pattern one winter and not so great the other winter. Even 2023-2024 had a good one week period in February with 2 events. But they were narrowly focused into portions of NJ and SNE really couldn’t cash in as much. We did get that record STJ in February associated with the larger event.

Meh, the blocking patterns weren't great in either 2015-16 or 2023-24. That's why temperatures, outside for maybe a few week window, torched during those winters.

2009-10 was the strong el nino winter this century with the great blocking pattern (of course, until late February).

[GaWx]

Impressive -NAO on the way:

[snowman19]

[LakePaste25]

Anyone have any summer analogs for this (el nino standing wave competing with e atlantic/african standing wave)? 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Impressive -NAO on the way:

Finally came a month later

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Finally came a month later

Maybe we can finally get some severe weather and even for that matter,just rain into the Tn Valley finally,its been realitive  dead here since the new year,only 3 confirmed tornadoes in TN

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

I try not to get too far ahead of things and just say at this point the temperatures next winter will probably be warmer than last winter was in the Northeast. Just hoping we can keep some semblance of a benchmark track going especially as we approach late January and February. I wouldn’t mind a mild winter at all if we could get a least one nice backloaded style event. 

The difference between 2015-2016  and 2023-2024 was that we got a great blocking pattern one winter and not so great the other winter. Even 2023-2024 had a good one week period in February with 2 events. But they were narrowly focused into portions of NJ and SNE really couldn’t cash in as much. We did get that record STJ in February associated with the larger event.

Obviously, we would want to avoid a 97-98 outcome where we really didn’t get much snow at all. Unfortunately, we just don’t have the technology to forecast snowfall and blocking so many months in advance.

Climate Reanalyzer has the 500mb reanalysis maps. But they are delayed a bit to around the 8th of the following month. 
 

https://climatereanalyzer.org

 

Thank you.

January 7th, 2024 was an incredible event for me.