2026-2027 El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Let's see.. it will be interesting to see if it goes with El Nino and pulls a 2014-2016, or if it continues to meander near neutral despite strong ENSO forcing like 23-24.

I could see it perhaps hanging near neutral like 2004 or 2009....23-24 remained strongly negative.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If it's an uber-even over 2.0, yes...we're screwed.

In the eastern regions. Even so, our snowstorm composite in the Mid Atlantic is a GOA low which is the much favored El Nino pattern, even in Strong. That means we are a -NAO away from a great possibly historic Winter, with a super amped STJ.  I don't agree with your logic about going with a higher number changes the players positionings. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I do not expect it be like 2023-2024.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Every month in the 2020s has been -PDO. 74 consecutive months right now. Will it break? Stay tuned! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In the eastern regions. Even so, our snowstorm composite in the Mid Atlantic is a GOA low which is the much favored El Nino pattern, even in Strong. That means we are a -NAO away from a great possibly historic Winter, with a super amped STJ.  I don't agree with your logic about going with a higher number changes the players positionings. 

We've been through that....higher end events are going to leak east. You keep imagining this uber-strong, western biased unicorn...have at it.

Yes, strong events are favorable for rouge blizzards, agreed. I called the 2016 event down to the week on a seasonal level. I am talking about temps and NE overall snowfall...only one that was decent for NE snowfall was 1982, which had somewhat of a -WPO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I forecasted 2015 to pull that off, Chuck, and it was a failure aside from getting the blizzard right....but I hope we do it one day. I know we've come close.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I forecasted 2015 to pull that off, Chuck, and it was a failure aside from getting the blizzard right....but I hope we do it one day. I know we've come close.

I just think it could be a little surprising the possibility for colder conditions in Stronger El Nino. A few of them occurred in the 1895-1948 dataset.  The # of samples we have right now is skewed a little warm and too +NAO, imo. Of course we have this global warming spike hitting the West coast and Rockies so we'll see if next Winter doesn't try to repeat the dataset. 

[GaWx]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay.....I bet you $100 the PDO averages positive this winter if El Nino peaks at 1.5 or higher this coming fall.

Are you talking RONI peak?

Which PDO are you referring to, the monthly NOAA or the WCS graphed dailies, which average ~1 higher?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Progression of yearly SSTA with January PDO. It doesn't correlate really strong until August. And Aug-Sept-Oct is exponentially higher than Spring/early Summer.. doesn't matter as much through June. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Are you talking RONI peak?

Which PDO are you referring to, the monthly NOAA or the WCS graphed dailies, which average ~1 higher?

I think he's look at NOAA. He referenced Feb as around -1, which is noaa

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Are you talking RONI peak?

Which PDO are you referring to, the monthly NOAA or the WCS graphed dailies, which average ~1 higher?

RONI, since ONI is obsolete.

I use this for PDO:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I just think it could be a little surprising the possibility for colder conditions in Stronger El Nino. A few of them occurred in the 1895-1948 dataset.  The # of samples we have right now is skewed a little warm and too +NAO, imo. Of course we have this global warming spike hitting the West coast and Rockies so we'll see if next Winter doesn't try to repeat the dataset. 

If patterns are getting stuck, maybe we csn continue the luck with plentiful eastern troughing.

[snowman19]

Evidence is growing for a very substantial El Niño event. Very few El Niño events of the last 45+ years have seen a record strong WWB like this and twin TC’s this early in the spring….

[Stormchaserchuck1]

March monthly SOI came in at +7.59.  Since 1950, no >+1.2 later in the year El Nino had a March SOI >5.5 fwiw. Only 1 had SOI >2.1 

Doesn't mean it can't happen, 15 total examples (RONI)

March 1957 -2.7

March 1963 +5.5

March 1965 +2.1

March 1968 -3.6

March 1972 +1.2

March 1982 +0.7

March 1986 -0.3

March 1987 -16.1

March 1991 -10.1

March 1994 -10

March 1997 -7

March 2002 -5.6

March 2009 -1.3

March 2015 -10.7

March 2023 -1.78

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

March 31 Nino 4 is >+0.5... +0.525

This is way ahead of other later in the year >+1.2 El Nino's.. only 2015 and 1997 were greater for the month of April. 

April 1957 -0.06

April 1963 -0.34

April 1965 -0.92

April 1968 -0.46

April 1972 +0.11

April 1982 +0.33

April 1986 -0.34

April 1987 +0.08

April 1991 +0.34

April 1994 +0.11

April 1997 +0.59

April 2002 +0.41

April 2009 -0.26

April 2015 +0.98

April 2023 +0.13

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Evidence is growing for a very substantial El Niño event. Very few El Niño events of the last 45+ years have seen a record strong WWB like this and twin TC’s this early in the spring….
 

 

 

 

 

Will be interesting to see the Euro seasonal Nino 3.4 forecast on April 5th once it initializes this event. Wouldn’t be surprised if it increases Nino 3.4 temperatures from the March 5th update. If we get these WWBs continuing and not reversing like we saw in June 2014, then this could be our first two events reaching at least +2.0 C on the ONI scale and around 28.57 C only three years apart. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

NDJ 2023  28.57   2.06

NDJ 2015  29.26   2.75

OND 1997  29.02   2.40

NDJ 1982  28.76   2.23

NDJ 1972  28.54   2.12

[mitchnick]

New Cansips out on TropicalTidbits. Similar to last month with lots of blocking. Drier for the east coast than typical for a Niño, but it's a long range forecast. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

New Cansips out on TropicalTidbits. Similar to last month with lots of blocking. Drier for the east coast than typical for a Niño, but it's a long range forecast. 

It did well last year. I was skeptical it would end up that cold. Interesting to see how it does this year.

[bluewave]

Will be interesting to see if the Euro April 5th release turns out to be as reliable as its El Niño forecast issued back in April 2023.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2023-April-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

 

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Will be interesting to see if the Euro April 5th release turns out to be as reliable as its El Niño forecast issued back in April 2023.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2023-April-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

 

I remember that well. Everyone thought the EURO was being way too aggressive and had a bad warm bias

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I remember that well. Everyone thought the EURO was being way too aggressive and had a bad warm bias

 1. The Euro did well with ONI in 2023, one of their best performances. But they also really did have a notable warm bias as was repeatedly shown with actual verifications vs progs over a near 20 year period, a large sample size. I spent lots of time researching and then showing this.

 A bias of any kind doesn’t at all mean that in a minority of cases verifications can’t be good. You know that. Keep in mind the very big too warm misses of 2012, 2014, and 2017 busts, for example. In all 3 cases a moderate El Niño was predicted repeatedly as I just posted. And the Euro has never been too cold by a significant degree. The one or two too cold misses were tiny in size.
 

2. The Euro when averaged out in only actual El Niño seasons had a smaller warm bias than for other seasons, which I’ve also pointed out. However, it still had a small warm bias even for those with some big too warm misses even during Nino seasons.

3. Furthermore, RONI of that season peaked at only high end moderate/low end strong as the Euro doesn’t predict RONI. Currently, RONI is ~0.5C cooler than ONI.

4. Let’s see what actually happens. It could of course end up very strong/super even for RONI as I’m open too all possibilities. It’s way too early for high confidence in any strength. That’s my main point. But remember to subtract ~0.5C for the best RONI prog.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Where are we going for daily H5 charts now that this site is no longer updating?

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

This site is fine for temps and precip.

https://prism.oregonstate.edu/comparisons/anomalies.php

[LakePaste25]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where are we going for daily H5 charts now that this site is no longer updating?

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

This site is fine for temps and precip.

https://prism.oregonstate.edu/comparisons/anomalies.php

The new Conventional Observation Reanalysis that’s supposed to replace it only has the raw data available (https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/core/) which is annoying since I haven’t found any custom built code that plots it yet 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

The new Conventional Observation Reanalysis that’s supposed to replace it only has the raw data available (https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/core/) which is annoying since I haven’t found any custom built code that plots it yet 

I have noticed....so we don't have means to plot H5 beyond March 17, 2026 for now?

[LakePaste25]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have noticed....so we don't have means to plot H5 beyond March 17, 2026 for now?

Correct, nothing publicly available as far as I know 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LakePaste25 said:

Correct, nothing publicly available as far as I know 

WTF.....going to refrain from anything that could be conceived as political discourse, but I have my opinions as to whom the ire should be directed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

MAGA

Make Analysis Great Again.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where are we going for daily H5 charts now that this site is no longer updating?

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

Oh no! That's the best site on the internet! Why the heck would they stop it?

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Oh no! That's the best site on the internet! Why the heck would they stop it?

Ask the White House...

[GaWx]

 The new Cansips has winter anomalies significantly colder in the NE than the SE:

 For all of the Ninos peaking at +1.5+, not a single one going back at least to 1895-6 had a colder NE than SE anomaly wise! Not even one!
 
 These are the winters: 2023-4, 2015-6, 2009-10, 2002-3, 1997-8, 1991-2, 1987-8, 1986-7, 1982-3, 1972-3, 1965-6, 1957-8, 1940-1, 1930-1, 1925-6, 1918-9, 1902-3, 1899-00, and 1896-7. That’s 19 winters, a nice sample size suggesting the CANSIPS E US winter temp. anomalies and a strong El Niño prog aren’t at all jibing with history.

 Here is the aggregate of those 19 winters:

 

Edit: Even going all of the way down to peaks of +1.0 yields the same result, no winter colder in NE than SE. That adds 13 more for a total sample size of 32!

 Here’s the average of the 13 moderates: