2026-2027 El Nino

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MULTI-decadal cycle....it's more like 30 years.

I see...So around what year did this one actually start?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I see...So around what year did this one actually start?

[snowman19]

This is going to cause a massive DWKW and a huge shift in the thermocline….
 

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree concerning the pattern of stagnating patterns....I've noticed that, as well. Obviously if the data continues to support it, that's one thing, but at this early juncture I reman skeptical of an uber El Niño in such rapid succession with 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. If this winter is a mild, it's going to have to be due to the warm ENSO overwhelming because I just can not envision reverting to the cold west/warm east configuration of the 2020s with he tropical Pacific moving the direction that it is.

I think that it’s still too early to focus in on the exact magnitude of the El Niño which is beginning to emerge . We need to watch the development into June to have a better idea once we get past the spring forecast barrier. 

The long range climate models have more of a coast to coast ridge look going forward like we saw this March with warmth extending across the country. So this would be a departure from the cold West and Warm East configuration. 

This may be related to the continuous North Pacific warm pool from Japan to California not really matching any traditional PDO composite. So it’s theoretically possible that we can get a robust Coast to Coast ridge like we saw this March regardless of the exact strength of the coming El Niño. Since the record 500 mb ridge over the West this past winter really wasn’t related to the La Niña magnitude. 
 

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/wmolc/

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think that it’s still too early to focus in on the exact magnitude of the El Niño which is beginning to emerge . We need to watch the development into June to have a better idea once we get past the spring forecast barrier. 

The long range climate models have more of a coast to coast ridge look going forward like we saw this March with warmth extending across the country. So this would be a departure from the cold West and Warm East configuration. 

This may be related to the continuous North Pacific warm pool from Japan to California not really matching any traditional PDO composite. So it’s theoretically possible that we can get a robust Coast to Coast ridge like we saw this March regardless of the exact strength of the coming El Niño. Since the record 500 mb ridge over the West this past winter really wasn’t related to the La Niña magnitude. 
 

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/wmolc/

 

 

Well, anything is theoretically possible when ENSO isn't overwhelming....because other factors dictate the hemispheric pattern...too early to say just yet.

[michsnowfreak]

On 3/29/2026 at 11:40 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right, I'm not debating El Niño.....what is in question is intensity and persistence of -PDO. I think the largest concern for winter enthusiasts is a 1991-1992 type of outcome....whereas the PDO recovers to near neutral and it's still awful as the PV is very strong constricted, but I think Pinatub may have played a role there.

1991-92 wasnt bad here for a strong Nino. Average snowfall, a couple good storms. Mild overall, but multiple cold shots.

[FPizz]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

1991-92 wasnt bad here for a strong Nino. Average snowfall, a couple good storms. Mild overall, but multiple cold shots.

91-92 was 15" here, but a 10" March saved it being a total dud. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

91-92 was the strongest west-based Nino on record. It was also very +NAO/+AO in the cold season

^A lot of cold anomalies there around the volcano. Sometimes you have to zoom out and see what the bigger picture was like. 3 out of 5 times that cold of a H5 N. Hemisphere will produce cooler weather in the US

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Check out what we experienced up to 3 years after the Pinatubo eruption 

[michsnowfreak]

47 minutes ago, FPizz said:

91-92 was 15" here, but a 10" March saved it being a total dud. 

Actually had one of my favorite snow memories as a child. Snowstorm on Jan 14th. I was playing in the deep snow at my grandmas house (which is now my house). Around a foot of snow fell in 8 hours. Very dynamic quick hitting storm.