bncho Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, Ji said: there is a lot here lol. NAO/big 50-50/-PNA/-WPO....alot of things fighting each other but the SE ridge is flat. Id be more worried about a southern slider here than the usual Feb nina cutter Since it's mid-Feb, -PNA is fine! That should also lessen our worries about suppression! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, Ji said: there is a lot here lol. NAO/big 50-50/-PNA/-WPO....alot of things fighting each other but the SE ridge is flat. Id be more worried about a southern slider here than the usual Feb nina cutter Yep. I made a post in the other thread about the teleconnections going forward earlier today. Only the -PNA is unfavorable. The NH panel shows it better.. the -WPO is key on the Pac side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, bncho said: Since it's mid-Feb, -PNA is fine! That should also lessen our worries about suppression! A -PNA can work if the other key indices are favorable: -AO/NAO and a ridge in the WPO and /or the EPO space. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, CAPE said: Yep. I made a post in the other thread about the teleconnections going forward earlier today. Only the -PNA is unfavorable. The NH panel shows it better.. the -WPO is key on the Pac side. -PNA isn't even "unfavorable" in a vacuum in Mid-February. Hell it could be argued that it's better. Perhaps the amplitude at which the -PNA is occuring is unfavorable... but all the other factors Ji posted about should counteract that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 17 minutes ago, Ji said: there is a lot here lol. NAO/big 50-50/-PNA/-WPO....alot of things fighting each other but the SE ridge is flat. Id be more worried about a southern slider here than the usual Feb nina cutter This is a lock because I rescheduled my appointment from the snowcrete storm to the 24th. Secret to a big storm is my scheduling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 0z GFS has the Feb 22-23 thing, it's a high end advisory event That timeframe could hold potential. Seems like CAPE's original storm will track too far north but will bring in some cold air for the follow up wave to ride the boundary. Pretty simple way to score around here. btw since i said all this it's now my storm and not Ji's storm even though his analysis is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 8 hours ago, bncho said: 0z GFS has the Feb 22-23 thing, it's a high end advisory event That timeframe could hold potential. Seems like CAPE's original storm will track too far north but will bring in some cold air for the follow up wave to ride the boundary. Pretty simple way to score around here. btw since i said all this it's now my storm and not Ji's storm even though his analysis is better. I wouldn't sleep on the 20th. The H5 look has improved some on recent runs, specifically in the NAO space. A deep upper low near the Maritimes is helping to compress the flow underneath and the potential storm looks less like a cutter and more like a Miller B on the GEFS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The GFS was really close to something for the 24th, if NS had phased quicker it'd have turned neg tilt way quicker and probably have been an HECS it also kinda looks like the Feb 2025 debacle, similar setup, same time of year, but i'd definitely run that look back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, bncho said: The GFS was really close to something for the 24th, if NS had phased quicker it'd have turned neg tilt way quicker and probably have been an HECS it also kinda looks like the Feb 2025 debacle, similar setup, same time of year, but i'd definitely run that look back It's a legit window, AIFS loves it, even before it spit out that HECS just now it's been all over it tossing out various east coast snowstorm solutions there. Other guidance hints at it. The 50/50 from the CAPE storm...whatever that ends up being, is the key to our chances with the window around the 24th. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The setup for the Feb 24 window is this yea -pna but that’s about as good an Atlantic setup as we can get and later in the season is when this kind of thing can work. The cape wave merges with NS wave rotating around the TPV to form a nice 50/50 coupled with continued ridging in the southwest NAO domain! We would need timing but we get some cold air delivery behind the wave on the 20-21 and with that 50/50 developing it could hold off the SW flow for a few days creating a window of opportunity for something. With the crap pacific that’s what we’re looking for. Windows. We won’t have wall to wall cold in that look. But with the Atlantic and wpo we should get opportunities to time something up. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 Around the 20th on the AI ENS- Miller B-ish like the GEFS. Its all about the NA. The signal for the 24th is weaker, but there. Expected given how far out that window is. We got some chances before March, and probably beyond- The key features are a WPO ridge and a favorable NA. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 49 minutes ago, CAPE said: Around the 20th on the AI ENS- Miller B-ish like the GEFS. Its all about the NA. The signal for the 24th is weaker, but there. Expected given how far out that window is. We got some chances before March, and probably beyond- The key features are a WPO ridge and a favorable NA. The h5 setup looks a little better (probably bc less spread at that range) than Feb 24 but my issue with the Feb 20 window is I don’t see enough cold in front of that wave. It’s going to try to ride the thermal boundary and it’s going to be hard to have it south of us given the ridge in front. The nao will force it to secondary but my guess is not in time because of the thermals. The Feb 24 has that going for it. There is a discharge (or could be) if cold behind the Feb 20 wave and if that 50/50 is the monster the euro guidance shows it could keep enough northerly flow into the northeast to have cold in place ahead of the next wave. We don’t have that for the 20th. They’re almost identical setups synoptically but I think the 24th one will have more cold to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The h5 setup looks a little better (probably bc less spread at that range) than Feb 24 but my issue with the Feb 20 window is I don’t see enough cold in front of that wave. It’s going to try to ride the thermal boundary and it’s going to be hard to have it south of us given the ridge in front. The nao will force it to secondary but my guess is not in time because of the thermals. The Feb 24 has that going for it. There is a discharge (or could be) if cold behind the Feb 20 wave and if that 50/50 is the monster the euro guidance shows it could keep enough northerly flow into the northeast to have cold in place ahead of the next wave. We don’t have that for the 20th. They’re almost identical setups synoptically but I think the 24th one will have more cold to work with. I tend to agree wrt the potential centered on the 20th, but it has trended somewhat colder overall on the ens means and still 7 days out, so worth monitoring for more favorable changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: I tend to agree wrt the potential centered on the 20th, but it has trended somewhat colder overall on the ens means and still 7 days out, so worth monitoring for more favorable changes. weve had a stupid amount of digital snow this year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 55 minutes ago, Ji said: weve had a stupid amount of digital snow this year lol Yet the reality is its been dry as a bone other than one storm. Arctic desert cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Yet the reality is its been dry as a bone other than one storm. Arctic desert cold. If we remember the seasonals’ DJF precip anomaly forecast, it was bone dry and I was thinking “no STJ this winter then?” We’re lucky to get 8-11” frozen from a STJ wave that drove into the OHV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If we remember the seasonals’ DJF precip anomaly forecast, it was bone dry and I was thinking “no STJ this winter then?” We’re lucky to get 8-11” frozen from a STJ wave that drove into the OHV. Seasonal models did pretty good this year. I remember you pointing out the much drier than average forecast. They were also colder than the 10 and 30 year averages. We were lucky to get that 1 STJ storm out of nowhere. It was Boston's 8th biggest snowfall on record, and the low pressure wasn't even that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 02:05 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:05 AM Winter is probably not over yet, even though it may seem like it looking for specific winter storm threats on recent guidance. The overall advertised longwave pattern going forward is not bad. We don't always need perfection mid to late winter to get snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Sunday at 02:16 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:16 AM 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: Winter is probably not over yet, even though it may seem like it looking for specific winter storm threats on recent guidance. The overall advertised longwave pattern going forward is not bad. We don't always need perfection mid to late winter to get snow. Not quite sure what to make of that. On the one hand, it looks like the NA is less favorable with lower heights up around Greenland, whereas the other day or so it looked better. On the other hand, the overall heights are not bad, relatively "flat" over much of the US (and no big southeast ridge). Plus, there appear to be lower heights on this side of the pole and a bit of a 50/50 trough. Seems like that could perhaps at least keep some chances for cold incursions from decent high pressures in Canada. ETA: While there were no specific threats that seemed evident in today's deterministic ops runs, some threats have appeared in the guidance on several occasions lately in this time period. For instance, yesterday's 18Z GFS had what looked like a couple or so decent shots. Those were gone today but as long as we can keep seeing those show up it would be nice, and hopefully have one or two really take shape as it gets closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 02:24 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:24 AM 4 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Not quite sure what to make of that. On the one hand, it looks like the NA is less favorable with lower heights up around Greenland, whereas the other day or so it looked better. On the other hand, the overall heights are not bad, relatively "flat" over much of the US (and no big southeast ridge). Plus, there appear to be lower heights on this side of the pole and a bit of a 50/50 trough. Seems like that could perhaps at least keep some chances for cold incursions from decent high pressures in Canada. Yep. It isnt perfect, but we often see the so called 'perfect pattern' and nothing comes of it. We get snow from flawed patterns sometimes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Work in progress. Now that it has figured out the key upper level features that the GFS has had for many runs now(that no other model has depicted) it should get better. We shall see. They had it for about 24 hours then lost it. It’s kinda a delicate balance. Everyone is just focused on snow maps and omg and model bashing but the phasing at about 24 hours is delicate balance between the two waves and just enough energy making it around the base makes the whole trough end up negative later on by putting enough energy out front to tilt the whole thing on its axis. But we’d normally never notice the relatively minor interplay of vort energy taking place if it wasn’t impacting a possible snowstorm. The result is hugely different but the cause is a relatively minor difference in handling how those 2 SWs interact within the trough early on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago @CAPE if you post here and people post snow maps and banter bs, just tag me. I’ll clean it up when I check in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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