February 2026

[WintryMixmaster]

On 2/10/2026 at 10:17 PM, Carvers Gap said:

The Weeklies are cold from week 3 onward - I wouldn't even say 50-60s seasonal stuff.  Looks to me like highs in the 40s for many.  I would assume most understand we aren't getting January temps in late February or March - LOL.  But the Weeklies this afternoon are a slog.  Maps are referenced above.  Same, exact signal as the past two cold shots.  I would put a target date from just after Feb 21 to the end of March(or earlier).   I do think winter hangs on longer than most are gonna want it to...especially after this warm-up gets everyone ready for spring.  I highly doubt NE TN and your area are done for the season.  I would never guarantee anything...but the pattern itself would yield cold.  I would suggest it may well be significantly colder than seasonal, but still a ways to go before getting too specific on my part.  They were cold enough this afternoon that I was digging up the Pisgah snow analogs for May of 92.    I think a lot of folks who are new to the region haven't seen what March can do in Tennessee as we have flipped warm during so many recent springs.  I am not saying we go to that place this March...but I have certainly seen March be a winter month.  This has been a winter where we have thought it ended multiple times.  Does it have one last gasp?  Maybe.

I am gonna make one early call...I think fall comes early. 

My biggest snow here was in January 2024... my second biggest was March 2022. Do you remember the setup? I think it was a bowling ball ULL that dropped down from the north, but I remember it being very mild the day before, snowing extremely heavily overnight and into the morning hours, and ending with 6.5 inches. Quickly melted away in the afternoon sun and the next day as it warmed up again, but an exciting storm of a magnitude I never thought I'd experience in Knoxville again (until January 2024 came around that is). But I definitely never write off March after that, even if the odds are low

[John1122]

The March 2022 snow was a Miller A, just timed up perfectly with a cold shot. We were in the 70s a few days before it arrived. 

[WintryMixmaster]

17 hours ago, John1122 said:

The March 2022 snow was a Miller A, just timed up perfectly with a cold shot. We were in the 70s a few days before it arrived. 

Oh yeah that's right, I remember it snowed all the way up into the northeast as the storm headed that way - though New Jersey didn't get as much as we did

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS(and GFS in general) has been trying to cook something up.  As we approach shoulder season, it is a vastly more competitive as a model.

[dwagner88]

5 hours ago, WintryMixmaster said:

Oh yeah that's right, I remember it snowed all the way up into the northeast as the storm headed that way - though New Jersey didn't get as much as we did

I was looking back through old photos and I found a screenshot of a Euro run four days out from that storm. It had a foot here. Actual total: 0.5". Typical.

[nrgjeff]

That one really pissed me off! Especially after the Burrowhead crap in KC the week prior. Fortunately KU won a natty several weeks later.

Weekend of the 22nd has F U Chattanooga vibes all over it. Could snow along I-81. Other solutions are rain everywhere - winter over.

I'm a little salty because I haven't gotten the kids up on skis yet this year. Perhaps the MJO coming around by early March will give the Mountains another chance or two.

[GBOVolz]

The March 2022 snow was a Miller A, just timed up perfectly with a cold shot. We were in the 70s a few days before it arrived. 

I would not be surprised if out of Knoxville’s 10 biggest snowstorms, 3/4 of those had temperatures in the 60s or 70s within a week before the storm. I bet a lot of our biggest snows in or around Knoxville had a above average temperatures for the season


.

[Carvers Gap]

The Sierra Nevada got hammered on Christmas.  18 days later, we went into the tank w/ temps.  I think we get colder a bit sooner than that, but check this out...

Mono County-
Including the cities of Lee Vining, Bridgeport, Mammoth Lakes,
and Coleville
1106 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Snow accumulations between 15 to 30 inches west
  of Highway 395, with 2 to 4 feet in the high Sierra. This includes
  locations such as Conway Summit, Lee Vining, June Lake, Mammoth
  Lakes, and Toms Place. 8 to 18 inches near and east of Highway
  395, such as Bridgeport, Walker, Bodie, and Benton. Lesser amounts
  of 2 to 4 inches for the Chalfant Valley. Winds gusting 35 to 45
  mph, with up to 65 mph for wind prone locations along US-395.
  Sierra ridge gusts over 100 mph.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS yet again advertises a snow storm inside of d10 around Feb 21....slider.

[KakashiHatake2000]

https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1433143008178881&id=100044495856962&http_ref=eyJ0cyI6MTc3MTAyODYxNzAwMCwiciI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuZmFjZWJvb2suY29tXC9zdG9yeS5waHA%2Fc3RvcnlfZmJpZD0xNDMzMTQzMDA4MTc4ODgxJmlkPTEwMDA0NDQ5NTg1Njk2MiZodHRwX3JlZj1leUowY3lJNk1UYzNNVEF5T0RVNE1qQXdNQ3dpY2lJNklpSjkifQ%3D%3D&hpir=1

See I told you it’s a possibility but not likely or guarantee six more weeks is coming back from vacation well except i didnt really read the text 

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GFS yet again advertises a snow storm inside of d10 around Feb 21....slider.

Sadly I’m not believing anything the gfs shows.  If the Euro AI says there is a chance then I will definitely be interested.  Thanks middle tn electric for thinking of me for Valentines Day!

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GFS yet again advertises a snow storm inside of d10 around Feb 21....slider.

Euro AI has been depicting the possibility but 2-3 Days later. 

[WintryMixmaster]

2 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Sadly I’m not believing anything the gfs shows.  If the Euro AI says there is a chance then I will definitely be interested.  Thanks middle tn electric for thinking of me for Valentines Day!

I love that it's always the happy hour GFS runs that somehow always dole out the most hope... I swear some government programmer put an Easter egg in the code to tweak the 18z GFS solutions towards colder/snowier just for us snow weenies lol

[*Flash*]

Doesn't look great rest-of-the-month. Hopefully, we can have one more forum-wide storm to track before spring. I'm enjoying the winter break for sure, but not ready to say goodbye entirely. 

[Carvers Gap]

12 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Euro AI has been depicting the possibility but 2-3 Days later. 

The 0z Euro was really amplified towards the end of the month.  I think there is a window there from say Feb 24-March10.  It fits the pattern we have seen all winter.  Warms up here.  Mammoth gets blitzed.  We get a brief cold shot which is followed by another short warm-up....then the hammer comes down for a couple of weeks.

[Carvers Gap]

For me, it looks like a potentially big cold shot coming at some point during March.  That isn't really earth shattering news, but just trying to time it is going to be the tough part.  The CFSv2 has it at 6z and the Euro Weeklies mean has March being progressively colder.  

You all know your own climatology.  Folks in NE TN and the Plateau can score well into early April.  March snow is not an anomaly IMBY, though it has been during La Nina.  

I am really excited that maybe this summer won't be ridiculously hot w/ the onset of El Nino and same for fall.  Jury is out on next winter.  If the El Nino is moderate or strong, I will roll w/ a torch for DFJ.  If it is weak, I will roll with December warm, and January and February seasonal but snow chances.  The strength of the El Nino is crucial.  Sometimes lately, even a weak El Nino is torchy here.  

[jaxjagman]

Looks severe towards the end of the month.Looks more like a East Asia winter monsoonal trough,Upper Level LOW into Russia/Mongolia and THE PIG like Flash calls it(Rex Block)in the Aleutians/Bearing Sea

Euro and GFS both show this right now,surprisingly right now