1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[bearman]

Sun is out here in Knoxville, I was hoping that would not happen so when it started we would have a quick road covering.  You get what you are handed. Temps will probably skyrocket because of this.

[GBOVolz]

Some weirdness with the 12z nam. 12k almost removed all the snow in Knoxville but the 3k actually upped the snow in Knoxville


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[GBOVolz]

I think something messed the 12k up. Same location on the 12k and 3k







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[Carvers Gap]

Probably just the 3k NAM and its elevation issues...but the 3k put 40+" in the Smokies.  That is Sierra Nevada level stuff.

[BlunderStorm]

My apologies for the images eating up the thread on screen. Just thought a flake post would be neat.

[housemtnTN]

1 minute ago, BlunderStorm said:

Where's this at?

[Windspeed]

We're nearly in nowcast mode. Banding across Kentucky into SWVA is steadily thickening on returns out of Jackson. Some of this may no longer be virga. Also returns are beginning to fill out of Morristown. Game time is upon us.

[GBOVolz]

Probably just the 3k NAM and its elevation issues...but the 3k put 40+" in the Smokies.  That is Sierra Nevada level stuff.

RAP continues to improve for my area. Around 3” by Saturday morning at 4am.




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[bearman]

Is someone going to start an orbs. Thread? Might be a good idea.  I have nice bright sunshine here in Knoxville.  Don't want that snow to sneak up on me.

[Hillbilly]

31 minutes ago, bearman said:

Sun is out here in Knoxville, I was hoping that would not happen so when it started we would have a quick road covering.  You get what you are handed. Temps will probably skyrocket because of this.

Since schools were not cancelled today that is probably all for the best. What time is the snow supposed to start?

[BlunderStorm]

20 minutes ago, housemtnTN said:

Where's this at?

Honaker, VA. NE tip of MRX coverage. About an hours drive north from Bristol. 

[Hurricaneguy]

That sharp snow gradient in Greene Co is giving me anxiety. Some Jan 2024 ptsd kicking in. 

[Vol4Life]

Anyone have a map or gif of where the ULL is currently?

[John1122]

Currently the model battle looks like the NAMs vs everyone else. 

The NAMs have dried up considerably. Everyone else maintains so far. 

[John1122]

MRX has apparently pushed all in on the NAM judging by their snow maps. (I'm sure it's the NBM, but it weighs the NAM family heavily the closer we get)

[Carvers Gap]

Pretty steady model runs by the RGEM.  The 12z RGEM barely budged.

[Hurricaneguy]

7 minutes ago, John1122 said:

MRX has apparently pushed all in on the NAM judging by their snow maps. (I'm sure it's the NBM, but it weighs the NAM family heavily the closer we get)

So are they reducing their snow totals from the morning map then? If NAM is trending negative for snow? 

[housemtnTN]

I was looking at NWS morristown live radar and someone correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears to be virga all over the region here.

[Reb]

2 minutes ago, housemtnTN said:

I was looking at NWS morristown live radar and someone correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears to be virga all over the region here.

Looks like it to me. Saturation!

[John1122]

7 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said:

So are they reducing their snow totals from the morning map then? If NAM is trending negative for snow? 

They have me with 1 inch, which is closest to the NAM still. The Euro/RGEM/HRRR/ICON/GFS have 4+ for me.

[bearman]

I 

4 minutes ago, Reb said:

Looks like it to me. Saturation!

I am still getting very light sky cover with sunshine in West Knoxville around Cedar Bluff, I thought the first precipitation was supposed to be coming in around 10, but they must have pulled that timetable back.

[Hurricaneguy]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

They have me with 1 inch, which is closest to the NAM still. The Euro/RGEM/HRRR/ICON/GFS have 4+ for me.

Gotcha! Sorry I misunderstood what you said. Rooting for you on the other models being closer to reality. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

They have me with 1 inch, which is closest to the NAM still. The Euro/RGEM/HRRR/ICON/GFS have 4+ for me.

I would be really surprised if you don't do halfway decent w/ this...good elevation and just the Plateau's ability to squeeze every, last drop from the atmosphere.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, bearman said:

I 

I am still getting very light sky cover with sunshine in West Knoxville around Cedar Bluff, I thought the first precipitation was supposed to be coming in around 10, but they must have pulled that timetable back.

I was thinking maybe around 2:00PM for TRI and also a friend of mine noted this as well.  I would think Knoxville is a hair later than that - I hope so, because I have one commuting!!!!

[John1122]

For reasons beyond me, the GFS/NAM have a major snow shadow over Southern Campbell County that suggest a downsloping effect off Cross Mountain, but I don't think the precip with this one is moving SW to NE like a typical system, but that's the direction of the drying it's trying to show. They often try that with traditional sliders where the precip is moving up from Alabama.

[Math/Met]

The GFS was a great run for eastern areas. 

[John1122]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I would be really surprised if you don't do halfway decent w/ this...good elevation and just the Plateau's ability to squeeze every, last drop from the atmosphere.

I hope to do better than 1 inch but this being the one time the NAM is correct wouldn't shock me. Earlier this winter one of the events it kept insisting I was getting 3-4 inches until the bitter end but I got about an inch. The Euro/RGEM gave me about an inch from that one. Here we have the opposite totals but the same models disagreeing.

[Tucker1027]

FWIW: 

I'm running about 3-4 degrees below from forecasted highs so far 

[Vol4Life]

Just now, Tucker1027 said:

FWIW: 

I'm running about 3-4 degrees below from forecasted highs so far 

Exact opposite is happening in West Knox.  Already at 35 degrees. Need the cloud deck to thicken

[Tucker1027]

Exact opposite is happening in West Knox.  Already at 35 degrees. Need the cloud deck to thicken

Yeah we haven’t had the sun so far down here


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