Reb Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Also, HWO AFD text says 4-8” but the WSW says 4-6”. Their original WSW 2-4” totals have gotten bumped up twice already…to 3-5” and then 4-6” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago MRX still has the 1-33 inch forecast on the WWA for Anderson and surrounding counties, so maybe I'm in a good spot in Oliver Springs, lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago NBM has upped me to 1.5 inches! After looking they used the 12z Euro ens for the 00z NBM. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago My forecast remains less than an inch. All modeling has me at 3-5 inches except the UKIE, the NBM and some junk cams that stink beyond 12 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, John1122 said: NBM has upped me to 1.5 inches! After looking they used the 12z Euro ens for the 00z NBM. The idea of the NBM is brilliant; letting smart humans weight the logical computer guidance based on the current situation. But the execution is total s*it. Must be the funding cuts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, Stovepipe said: The idea of the NBM is brilliant; letting smart humans weight the logical computer guidance based on the current situation. But the execution is total s*it. Must be the funding cuts. The use of so many bad models but not the Euro Op is crazy. Especially since they use the GFS op. I'm not sure that there is actual human involvement in it though. I think it simply blends the models noted on the dashboard and spits out outdated material. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, John1122 said: My forecast remains less than an inch. All modeling has me at 3-5 inches except the UKIE, the NBM and some junk cams that stink beyond 12 hours. Not sure if they are in the middle of updating them or what, but Tellico and Sweetwater are 1-2, Madisonville is 2-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricaneguy Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: NBM has upped me to 1.5 inches! After looking they used the 12z Euro ens for the 00z NBM. Can you post the new NBM please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said: Can you post the new NBM please? Sorry...had to lol 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Co Vol Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago The IDSS forecast for IMBY almost doubled in the past hour. (1 mile from exit 424 of I-40) 7.7" snowfall from .41 precip 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Not sure if they are in the middle of updating them or what, but Tellico and Sweetwater are 1-2, Madisonville is 2-5. I can’t count how many people at my workplace have said it’s not going to snow. Only a fraction of the population will buy into this thing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, John1122 said: The use of so many bad models but not the Euro Op is crazy. Especially since they use the GFS op. I'm not sure that there is actual human involvement in it though. I think it simply blends the models noted on the dashboard and spits out outdated material. As a GIS nerd I'm gonna give away for free a multi-million dollar idea, super simple. Track verification scores of all weather models. For any given setup, query a set of historical analogs. Assess which weather models verified best in those analog lead-ups. Weight current models accordingly for current situation NBM. There, not perfect but grounded in science and a helluva better blend than what we are seeing today! I'd like 5% of the revenue from the startup that cashes in on that idea please. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: As a GIS nerd I'm gonna give away for free a multi-million dollar idea, super simple. Track verification scores of all weather models. For any given setup, query a set of historical analogs. Assess which weather models verified best in those analog lead-ups. Weight current models accordingly for current situation NBM. There, not perfect but grounded in science and a helluva better blend than what we are seeing today! I'd like 5% of the revenue from the startup that cashes in on that idea please. Worth a shot...once they figure out how to incorporate AI completely, they will privatize the NWS imo. Just the revenue alone all these half-wit social media pages are generating all is enough to get Big Brother Corporations watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, TellicoWx said: Worth a shot...once they figure out how to incorporate AI completely, they will privatize the NWS imo. Just the revenue alone all these half-wit social media pages are generating all is enough to get Big Brother Corporations watching. Assuming the input data keeps flowing, at the pace we are seeing, AI and machine learning will absolutely crack the weather code to the point that humans won't need to interpret much and the forecasts will be as optimal as possible, and soon-ish. As far as who cashes in on it, I don't know. The data is certainly extremely valuable. Anyway, back to snow in Tennessee! Sorry for the diversion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Looking at the forecast winds for the mountain/foothills zones, would not be shocked if a Blizzard Warning is issued at some point. The wind gust and light fluffy snow is right on the cusp of MRX's criteria. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Loudon added to wsw 2-4 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastTNWeatherAdmirer Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago This is my snowfall forecast map and cities Jefferson City: 4”-6”+ Morristown: 4”-7”+ Knoxville (downtown; East & South): 3”-5” Newport: 4”-7” + Kingsport: 3.5”-6” Greenville: 4”-7”+ Baneberry: 4”-7”+ White Pine: 4”-7”+ Mt. LeConte (including Sunday NW flow mnt snowfall): 12”-16”+ Sevierville: 5”-7”+ Pitman Center: 6”-8”+ Cosby (in the actual town near foothills pkwy; not at Wilton Springs): 5”-8”+ Tazewell: 3”-5.5” Johnson City: 5”-8” + Maryville: 3.5”-6” Roan Mountain (including Sunday NW flow mnt snowfall): 10”-16”+ Sweetwater: 3”-5” Athens: 3”-5” Chattanooga: 2”-4” Crossville: 3”-4” -Clinton, Halls, Powell, & Karns: 2”-4” (less than east and south Knox County) -Dandridge: 4”-7”+ -Chestnut Hill: 4”-7”+ -White Pine, Baneberry, Bybee: 5”-7”+ (enhanced accumulation here) -Russellville: 4.5”-6” -Mohawk, Mosheim, & Midway (Greene County): 5”-8” -Bristol (not counting Saturday night & Sunday snow showers): 4”-5.5” -Parrottsville (Cocke County): 5”-7”+ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, EastTNWeatherAdmirer said: This is my snowfall forecast map and cities Jefferson City: 4”-6”+ Morristown: 4”-7”+ Knoxville (downtown; East & South): 3”-5” Newport: 4”-7” + Kingsport: 3.5”-6” Greenville: 4”-7”+ Baneberry: 4”-7”+ White Pine: 4”-7”+ Mt. LeConte (including Sunday NW flow mnt snowfall): 12”-16”+ Sevierville: 5”-7”+ Pitman Center: 6”-8”+ Cosby (in the actual town near foothills pkwy; not at Wilton Springs): 5”-8”+ Tazewell: 3”-5.5” Johnson City: 5”-8” + Maryville: 3.5”-6” Roan Mountain (including Sunday NW flow mnt snowfall): 10”-16”+ Sweetwater: 3”-5” Athens: 3”-5” Chattanooga: 2”-4” Crossville: 3”-4” -Clinton, Halls, Powell, & Karns: 2”-4” (less than east and south Knox County) -Dandridge: 4”-7”+ -Chestnut Hill: 4”-7”+ -White Pine, Baneberry, Bybee: 5”-7”+ (enhanced accumulation here) -Russellville: 4.5”-6” -Mohawk, Mosheim, & Midway (Greene County): 5”-8” -Bristol (not counting Saturday night & Sunday snow showers): 4”-5.5” -Parrottsville (Cocke County): 5”-7”+ Nice, what is your preferred blend of models or human logic that drove you to this prediction if you don't mind me asking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago HRRR finally on board. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Thanks to @Holston_River_Rambler I'm just chillin out to some old school stuff. Mrs. Pipe doesn't care for the music though. (I love it) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Nam 06 only hitting knox north Edit looks better on 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Hrr 06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Nam 06 only hitting knox north Not seeing that, what do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago So if the model says 3 or 4 we double that possibly right since its a dry snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, Stovepipe said: Not seeing that, what do you mean? It was early in model run thats why I edited my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago But top is nam 06 and bottom is nam 3k 06 see the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Poor Hamilton County…. All alone without a WWA . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago My takeaway is NAM is leaning 2-4, 3k NAM is about 3, HRRR is 4-7, for Knox as a baseline for central valley, adjusting the gradient west to east. Edit: So basically inline with what MRX is forecasting. Almost at radar and HRRR watching phase. Edit 2: RAP coming in with a colder temp drop faster, if that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I'll be very surprised if surface temps get above 35 tomorrow in the central valley. Not that there is a chance of rain lol, just saying, some of these upper 30s progs don't feel right before the precip falls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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