1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[GBOVolz]

I’m a little sad that Loudon county didn’t make it into the wsw. I hope we at least get a few inches.


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I’m in the WSW and my point click forecast says 1 or 2 inches


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[GBOVolz]

FYI…. Looks like we’re going to have a red sunrise.


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[housemtnTN]

12 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Holy 6z Euro….




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Wel shit far I might actually have some measurable snow.

[BlunderStorm]

13 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Holy 6z Euro….




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Wooo! I'm cashing out. I would not say a peep til Feb of next season if this verified. 

[GBOVolz]

Wel shit far I might actually have some measurable snow.

What sucks is we don’t know if the 6 and 18 is right or the 0 and 12


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[BlunderStorm]

Just now, GBOVolz said:

What sucks is we don’t know if the 6 and 18 is right or the 0 and 12


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As a rule of thumb it's better to more heavily weight 0z and 12z runs to my understanding. Although... I don't know which models this applies to.

[John1122]

I refuse to kick at the Euro's football. But it's moving towards the RGEM with each 18/6 run. 

[fountainguy97]

You guys are right. The EURO is stair stepping west with 0/12 being not as extreme then 6/18 jumping west. But each stair is ultimately further west. Strange to see.

[GBOVolz]

Anyone have the latest RGEM


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

My first thought is that it could be the extra dropsonde data points (i.e. improves resolution over the Pacific when these are added to 0z) but these are only done in the PM for the past few days, so  it doesn't explain the 12z shift too. 

It seems like something like this, but not as strong, happened with medium/ long range storm signals in the past and I thought it might have been due to diurnal convection cycles modulating how global models dealt with large-scale features (like any SE ridge or in this case PNA ridge). That's not much, but all I can think of for now regarding the 6/18z and 0/12z differences. 

Hurricane hunters are planning a Gulf or Atlantic flight today in addition to a couple of Pacific ones, so we'll see what if anything, that does for 18z - 0z model this evening. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Anyone have the latest RGEM


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3 run qpf trend on the RGEM

[fountainguy97]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

3 run qpf trend on the RGEM

Amazing how you can see the flow stacking up against the mountains. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z Euro 5 run trend:

You can really see the min-maxing on the 0/12z and 6/18z runs:

[GBOVolz]

What’s the GFS Graphcast?


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[GBOVolz]

What’s the GFS Graphcast?


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It just increased our snow just a little from 4” @ 10/1 to 80” at 10/1







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[tnweathernut]

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle of these QPF amounts on the euro.  One thing I mentioned to Carvers yesterday……..  how many times out of 10 things trend (and verify) east and south of modeling inside of 72 hours.  My guess would be 1.  Doesn’t mean Knoxville area cant work its way out of a snow, but it’s not like it’s a bad thing being on the north and west edge of guidance 36-48 hours out.

[housemtnTN]

6 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

It just increased our snow just a little from 4” @ 10/1 to 80” at 10/1







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Oh, well thats interesting LOL

[Kasper]

50 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Holy 6z Euro….




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[bearman]

2 minutes ago, housemtnTN said:

Oh, well thats interesting LOL

I thought I was going to move to Russia to get those totals, glad I am not an impulsive person.   LOL.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

17 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

What’s the GFS Graphcast?


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I think it is an earlier generation of the AI models. I remember hearing about it more last year. But honestly not sure. 

[GBOVolz]

For those that don’t know, Tom lives up on Roan Mtn.

https://x.com/tomniziol/status/2016856004009332761?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg

https://x.com/tomniziol/status/2016856006039392447?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here are some 6z EPS .qpf spreads for select airport locations in east TN. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GBOVolz]

Here are some 6z EPS .qpf spreads for select airport locations in east TN. 
 


 

 
 
 


 

Very nice to see TYS and Oak Ridge in the .3 to .5 range. That’s a nice snow at 20/1


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[GBOVolz]

Here are some 6z EPS .qpf spreads for select airport locations in east TN. 
 


 

 
 
 


 

So the EPS is on board with the operational Euro as far as liquid?


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

15 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

So the EPS is on board with the operational Euro as far as liquid?

Looks like it. 

[housemtnTN]

I wonder if we will get a winter storm warning issued tomorrow.

[*Flash*]

Is the RGEM still showing the most snow for the plateau? 

[GBOVolz]

I wonder if we will get a winter storm warning issued tomorrow.

If they roll with the mods this morning, yes i believe they will upgrade to a warning with Advisory’s getting issued for the southern valley to the Plateau


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[Reb]

12z NAM starts the show at 1600 tomorrow in Knox. Most other models start around 1900 FWIW. 

[GBOVolz]

12z NAM starts the show at 1600 tomorrow in Knox. Most other models start around 1900 FWIW. 

And it looks much better than 0z


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