1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[tnwxwatcher]

Me too, I loved watching the weather channel as a kid, my family always thought that it was strange.

That was so me too! My family thought I was weird and certainly thought I'd be an on TV weather personality when I grew up. Lol

Just loved watching the winter weather as a kid and still do! Some things never change! I remember my first little digital thermometer with the long wire attached, running it out a window! I was in heaven!

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[Uncle Nasty]

Let me throw another wrench into everything. It will be cold. Let's pretend we have a lot of moisture coming and it could be .30". Thats 3" at 10:1. More than likely will be at least 15:1 or maybe 20:1. That sounds great! But, since it's Chattanooga, we will use up 80% of our QPF to saturate the column enough to reach the ground.

We'll end up up with a virga storm! That would be our luck. Just keeping it real for Chatty.

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[nrgjeff]

I agree 100% with Uncle Nasty. Then the trowal will just get going a county east of Chatty. We're left with broken low clouds and a clear view of the virga to the east. Can I paint a more rage inducing picture? I had a crap day at work so I only see negatives!

[midwoodian]

When I lived in Charlotte these were the types of storms that modeled for the CLT area then ultimately verified NW towards either side of the apps. I think the last one was 2014 or 2015.

Yes 2014 mid Feb was very similar. Plaza Midwood got 8, and family in Knoxville got 6 with late NW flow.


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[Daniel Boone]

29 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Imagine that…. Weather next 2.836473838 is delayed again tonight. 
 

If you’re bored waiting on the NAM, check out the high end SREF plume for Bristol. 

That's just a plum great plume !

[John1122]

Weather Next was basically a copy and paste of 12z. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Uncle Nasty said:

Let me throw another wrench into everything. It will be cold. Let's pretend we have a lot of moisture coming and it could be .30". Thats 3" at 10:1. More than likely will be at least 15:1 or maybe 20:1. That sounds great! But, since it's Chattanooga, we will use up 80% of our QPF to saturate the column enough to reach the ground.

We'll end up up with a virga storm! That would be our luck. Just keeping it real for Chatty.

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Throw in some Eastman Bubble for good measure....

[Vol4Life]

RGEM at 0z is looking good.  It continues to show the best solution for most of the forum.

[WintryMixmaster]

The high res models, though at the end of their ranges, all very much dislike this storm for East Tennessee. RRFS, NAM 3k, HRW FV3, even the NAM to some extent. I don't like that so I'll choose to ignore them

[Vol4Life]

RGEM starts the snow in ETN around 10 pm on Friday and ends around 8 pm on Saturday except for the mountains where it continues for another couple of hours

[Vol4Life]

1-2” back to Nashville, 3-4” plateau, 5-6” around Knox, 6-8+ up in NETN

[John1122]

I truly hope the RGEM is handling all the energy over Canada better than other models. 

It and the Canadian schooled all the American models with this last storm. It went warm nose, ice to rain early and never wavered. The American models were dropping 12+ here at 72-84 hours still. 

[John1122]

The GFS looks like a blend of the RGEM and NAM, which worries me for the RGEM. 

[Jed33]

The Canadian looks very similar to the Rgem. Pretty much right on top of each other.

[WintryMixmaster]

11 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GFS looks like a blend of the RGEM and NAM, which worries me for the RGEM. 

Canada is trying to get our hopes up with those RGEM+CMC runs. I'd take the 3" from the GFS and run at this point though

[John1122]

The Canadian was the first to nail the warm nose/ice issues last week because it handled the vort over the arctic that came into Montana and screwed us, before the other models, including the Euro. 

Now, watch it get this one wrong. 

[John1122]

Not surprisingly at this point, the Euro stepped back from it's 18z run. It's so odd that it's changing the same way every other run.  

[John1122]

And by stepped back, I mean for those of us in the screw zone/western edge. It still pounds the far eastern areas with 6-10 inches. 

[Hurricaneguy]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

And by stepped back, I mean for those of us in the screw zone/western edge. It still pounds the far eastern areas with 6-10 inches. 

John, how is your gut feeling about Greeneville/Greene Co? Is this finally looking like the storm to give us a solid snowfall? At least 3-4”

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said:

John, how is your gut feeling about Greeneville/Greene Co? Is this finally looking like the storm to give us a solid snowfall? At least 3-4”

You could have the issues Carvers mentions, but across all modeling you're looking at 4-10+ inches at this point.

[Neals]

When the trend is your friend. 

[bearman]

MRX pulled the trigger and issued a Winter storm Watch for Knoxville East. 

[Stovepipe]

Will feel more confident tomorrow, but as of now I'm feeling a 1 to 4 inch feast or famine event across Knox county for this one.

[Windspeed]

Text for the map above..

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
250 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

TNZ016>018-040>047-072-074-087-VAZ002-005-006-008-291815-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0002.260130T1800Z-260201T0600Z/
Hawkins-Sullivan-Johnson-Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest
Carter-Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Monroe-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
Including the cities of South Holston Dam, Elkmont, Mooresburg,
Hansonville, Bybee, Abingdon, Rosedale, Benhams, Pardee, Citico,
Greeneville, Norton, Big Stone Gap, Hartford, Doeville, Shady
Valley, Mountain City, Dye, Hampton, Coker Creek, Limestone Cove,
Wise, Hiltons, Kingsport, Gatlinburg, Erwin, Appalachia, Honaker,
Unicoi, Newport, Neva, Bristol TN, Laurel Bloomery, Bristol VA,
Coeburn, Castlewood, Cedar Creek, Elizabethton, Cades Cove,
Trade, Johnson City, and Lebanon
250 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
7 inches possible. Winds in the mountains could gust as high as 35
mph.

* WHERE...Portions of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
could impact the Friday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

[Runman292]

Figures that the western valley counties like Anderson wouldn't be in it. I'd love 1 good snow before spring. Hope there's still some room for a shift.