1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[tnwxwatcher]

Me too, I loved watching the weather channel as a kid, my family always thought that it was strange.

That was so me too! My family thought I was weird and certainly thought I'd be an on TV weather personality when I grew up. Lol

Just loved watching the winter weather as a kid and still do! Some things never change! I remember my first little digital thermometer with the long wire attached, running it out a window! I was in heaven!

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[Uncle Nasty]

Let me throw another wrench into everything. It will be cold. Let's pretend we have a lot of moisture coming and it could be .30". Thats 3" at 10:1. More than likely will be at least 15:1 or maybe 20:1. That sounds great! But, since it's Chattanooga, we will use up 80% of our QPF to saturate the column enough to reach the ground.

We'll end up up with a virga storm! That would be our luck. Just keeping it real for Chatty.

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[nrgjeff]

I agree 100% with Uncle Nasty. Then the trowal will just get going a county east of Chatty. We're left with broken low clouds and a clear view of the virga to the east. Can I paint a more rage inducing picture? I had a crap day at work so I only see negatives!

[midwoodian]

When I lived in Charlotte these were the types of storms that modeled for the CLT area then ultimately verified NW towards either side of the apps. I think the last one was 2014 or 2015.

Yes 2014 mid Feb was very similar. Plaza Midwood got 8, and family in Knoxville got 6 with late NW flow.


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[Daniel Boone]

29 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Imagine that…. Weather next 2.836473838 is delayed again tonight. 
 

If you’re bored waiting on the NAM, check out the high end SREF plume for Bristol. 

That's just a plum great plume !

[John1122]

Weather Next was basically a copy and paste of 12z. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Uncle Nasty said:

Let me throw another wrench into everything. It will be cold. Let's pretend we have a lot of moisture coming and it could be .30". Thats 3" at 10:1. More than likely will be at least 15:1 or maybe 20:1. That sounds great! But, since it's Chattanooga, we will use up 80% of our QPF to saturate the column enough to reach the ground.

We'll end up up with a virga storm! That would be our luck. Just keeping it real for Chatty.

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Throw in some Eastman Bubble for good measure....

[Vol4Life]

RGEM at 0z is looking good.  It continues to show the best solution for most of the forum.

[WintryMixmaster]

The high res models, though at the end of their ranges, all very much dislike this storm for East Tennessee. RRFS, NAM 3k, HRW FV3, even the NAM to some extent. I don't like that so I'll choose to ignore them

[Vol4Life]

RGEM starts the snow in ETN around 10 pm on Friday and ends around 8 pm on Saturday except for the mountains where it continues for another couple of hours

[Vol4Life]

1-2” back to Nashville, 3-4” plateau, 5-6” around Knox, 6-8+ up in NETN

[John1122]

I truly hope the RGEM is handling all the energy over Canada better than other models. 

It and the Canadian schooled all the American models with this last storm. It went warm nose, ice to rain early and never wavered. The American models were dropping 12+ here at 72-84 hours still. 

[John1122]

The GFS looks like a blend of the RGEM and NAM, which worries me for the RGEM. 

[Jed33]

The Canadian looks very similar to the Rgem. Pretty much right on top of each other.

[WintryMixmaster]

11 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GFS looks like a blend of the RGEM and NAM, which worries me for the RGEM. 

Canada is trying to get our hopes up with those RGEM+CMC runs. I'd take the 3" from the GFS and run at this point though

[John1122]

The Canadian was the first to nail the warm nose/ice issues last week because it handled the vort over the arctic that came into Montana and screwed us, before the other models, including the Euro. 

Now, watch it get this one wrong.