1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[John1122]

Just now, GBOVolz said:

Isn’t the 0z and 12z initiated differently?


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I wouldn't think so, but others have noted it and it's AI have been doing that for 6-8 runs in a row. 

[GBOVolz]

I wouldn't think so, but others have noted it and it's AI have been doing that for 6-8 runs in a row. 

Maybe it’s the GFS that does something different for 2 of its runs.


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[Vol4Life]

that’s 10:1 ratio.  Likely to be closer to 20:1

[fountainguy97]

Euro joins the ULL mountain focus and a late blooming coastal solution. It and weathernext are locked in.

[Tucker1027]

11 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Euro joins the ULL mountain focus and a late blooming coastal solution. It and weathernext are locked in.

we would probably be 20:1 ratios right? 

[Tucker1027]

.

[fountainguy97]

1 minute ago, Tucker1027 said:

we would probably be 20:1 ratios right? 

 

6 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

we would probably be 20:1 ratios right? 

yeah that's Kuchera so it takes that into account.  We start around 14-16:1 and by the end are toward 25:1.

[John1122]

10 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

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I believe the RGEM is 3 basically.

[John1122]

15z SREF was .3 to .5 qpf for most of East Tn out to 87 hrs. With .1 back to Nashville, and .2 down to Chattanooga. 

The NAM should be decent based on that.

[John1122]

The EPS, which would normally be less qpf than an OP, was more in-line with the AI Euro and had a larger precip field for Tennessee with .1 back towards Cookeville.

[GBOVolz]

The EPS, which would normally be less qpf than an OP, was more in-line with the AI Euro and had a larger precip field for Tennessee with .1 back towards Cookeville.

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[Reb]

31 minutes ago, John1122 said:

15z SREF was .3 to .5 qpf for most of East Tn out to 87 hrs. With .1 back to Nashville, and .2 down to Chattanooga. 

The NAM should be decent based on that.

 

[fountainguy97]

the NAM is a beauty.  just gorgeous pivot over ETN

[Tucker1027]

4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

the NAM is a beauty.  just gorgeous pivot over ETN

how do we get more precipitation in the southern valley? Need that pivot to me further south? or southwest?

 

or is the low QPF due to long range NAM? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z NAM kuchera:

[GBOVolz]

how do we get more precipitation in the southern valley? Need that pivot to me further south? or southwest?
 
or is the low QPF due to long range NAM? 

Need the system to blow up a little feather south down the coast


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

ehhhhh Pivotal looks better, so we'll go with that:

[Vol4Life]

9 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

the NAM is a beauty.  just gorgeous pivot over ETN

I honestly don’t love that run of NAM.  Better than 12Z, but we need it to close off further w/sw

[John1122]

Not very good for most of us on that run. Too far east with the ull. 

[Carvers Gap]

The good think is the NAM at range is still the NAM at range.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

For those asking what we need for more to be involved (and it ain't happening)

Here's what we have, not necessarily terrible for east TN:

 

 

 

Here is what we need:

 

[Carvers Gap]

Models have continued to denote a very sharp cutoff over E TN, and MBY is not immune to that either.  I still do not trust modeling with this storm.  I have seen this type of setup go "poof" even as the storm is ongoing.  We need that slp tucked to the west of Hatteras.  If it isn't, no matter how much models try to make it happen.....the system usually can't get past the foothills on the west slopes.  I won't say it is fool's gold.  I think we have a chance at some light snow, but that SLP is waaaaay over there on the coast.   Even for NE TN, this is gonna take some work to get snow here.  My confidence remains low in how this is portrayed.

[Carvers Gap]

The risk w/ this is the snow cuts off right at the spine of the Apps. 

[GBOVolz]

ehhhhh Pivotal looks better, so we'll go with that:

I would feel much better if this map looked like this…


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[John1122]

RGEM is having a much better ULL pass. 

[Save the itchy algae!]

Models have continued to denote a very sharp cutoff over E TN, and MBY is not immune to that either.  I still do not trust modeling with this storm.  I have seen this type of setup go "poof" even as the storm is ongoing.  We need that slp tucked to the west of Hatteras.  If it isn't, no matter how much models try to make it happen.....the system usually can't get past the foothills on the west slopes.  I won't say it is fool's gold.  I think we have a chance at some light snow, but that SLP is waaaaay over there on the coast.   Even for NE TN, this is gonna take some work to get snow here.  My confidence remains low in how this is portrayed.

All true, but these events are exactly why NE Tennessee averages the most snow in the state, without respect to elevation. Jelly for your locale. I chose west Knox blindly based on schools, if I had to do it again I’d be up your way somewhere or far north Knox or southern Anderson counties probably.

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

The risk w/ this is the snow cuts off right at the spine of the Apps. 

Yeah. It's looking more and more like that's a possibility. Hopefully the ULL will pull enough moisture into it before everything explodes east of us. Maybe we squeeze out a few inches rhat way.

    That 1980 Analogy is looking pretty spot on if that turns out to be the Case. I wish I knew the exact Date of that Storm . Need to look it up and see what the Setup was. As stated earlier, 3 inches here with a steady increase as you went Eastward. Eastern NC and SEVA was pulverized. Massive Drifts in Norfolk. 

     This Winter is turning into a banner one for them considering the 3 Snowfalls in December they got.

[John1122]

The RGEM would be about as good as it could get for the most folks. 

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah. It's looking more and more like that's a possibility. Hopefully the ULL will pull enough moisture into it before everything explodes east of us. Maybe we squeeze out a few inches rhat way.

    That 1980 Analogy is looking pretty spot on if that turns out to be the Case. I wish I knew the exact Date of that Storm . Need to look it up and see what the Setup was. As stated earlier, 3 inches here with a steady increase as you went Eastward. Eastern NC and SEVA was pulverized. Massive Drifts in Norfolk. 

     This Winter is turning into a banner one for them considering the 3 Snowfalls in December they got.

The 12z GEM-para illustrates the concern pretty well.  It has light snow, but that is about it.  It did well with the last system.  Generally, I have tossed the GFS in my thinking.  It was badly wrong w/ the last system over NE TN.  The GEM-para was very good.

[tnweathernut]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GEM-para illustrates the concern pretty well.  It has light snow, but that is about it.  It did well with the last system.  Generally, I have tossed the GFS in my thinking.  It was badly wrong w/ the last system over NE TN.  The GEM-para was very good.

People still look at the GFS?