1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[John1122]

Just now, GBOVolz said:

Isn’t the 0z and 12z initiated differently?


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I wouldn't think so, but others have noted it and it's AI have been doing that for 6-8 runs in a row. 

[GBOVolz]

I wouldn't think so, but others have noted it and it's AI have been doing that for 6-8 runs in a row. 

Maybe it’s the GFS that does something different for 2 of its runs.


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[Vol4Life]

that’s 10:1 ratio.  Likely to be closer to 20:1

[fountainguy97]

Euro joins the ULL mountain focus and a late blooming coastal solution. It and weathernext are locked in.

[Tucker1027]

11 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Euro joins the ULL mountain focus and a late blooming coastal solution. It and weathernext are locked in.

we would probably be 20:1 ratios right? 

[Tucker1027]

.

[fountainguy97]

1 minute ago, Tucker1027 said:

we would probably be 20:1 ratios right? 

 

6 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

we would probably be 20:1 ratios right? 

yeah that's Kuchera so it takes that into account.  We start around 14-16:1 and by the end are toward 25:1.

[John1122]

10 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

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I believe the RGEM is 3 basically.

[John1122]

15z SREF was .3 to .5 qpf for most of East Tn out to 87 hrs. With .1 back to Nashville, and .2 down to Chattanooga. 

The NAM should be decent based on that.

[John1122]

The EPS, which would normally be less qpf than an OP, was more in-line with the AI Euro and had a larger precip field for Tennessee with .1 back towards Cookeville.

[GBOVolz]

The EPS, which would normally be less qpf than an OP, was more in-line with the AI Euro and had a larger precip field for Tennessee with .1 back towards Cookeville.

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[Reb]

31 minutes ago, John1122 said:

15z SREF was .3 to .5 qpf for most of East Tn out to 87 hrs. With .1 back to Nashville, and .2 down to Chattanooga. 

The NAM should be decent based on that.

 

[fountainguy97]

the NAM is a beauty.  just gorgeous pivot over ETN

[Tucker1027]

4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

the NAM is a beauty.  just gorgeous pivot over ETN

how do we get more precipitation in the southern valley? Need that pivot to me further south? or southwest?

 

or is the low QPF due to long range NAM? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z NAM kuchera:

[GBOVolz]

how do we get more precipitation in the southern valley? Need that pivot to me further south? or southwest?
 
or is the low QPF due to long range NAM? 

Need the system to blow up a little feather south down the coast


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

ehhhhh Pivotal looks better, so we'll go with that:

[Vol4Life]

9 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

the NAM is a beauty.  just gorgeous pivot over ETN

I honestly don’t love that run of NAM.  Better than 12Z, but we need it to close off further w/sw

[John1122]

Not very good for most of us on that run. Too far east with the ull. 

[Carvers Gap]

The good think is the NAM at range is still the NAM at range.