It's not coming 1/31-2/1 2026

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

This had/has high-end potential.  It's definitely frustrating how it's playing out. 

The really high end potential storms often fail more than they hit although we remember the hits. This ones like close enough to keep one interested but consistently swinging right so many runs in a row where it feels a forum wide hit is not likely.

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There's like 15 different vortmaxes that all try to form a low along convection. So the storm becomes a disorganized and strung out mess. 

Makes me think we still have time to fix it for better or worse cause even models don’t know clearly

[dseagull]

Just now, jm1220 said:

There's like 15 different vortmaxes that all try to form a low along convection. So the storm becomes a disorganized and strung out mess. 

Agree... which is why it doesn't really make sense.  Have to look at individual members and attempt to see which output jives.   This is ugly.  

[Mo Snow]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

GFS 

 

dang why is the western precip shield so small

[SACRUS]

GGEM

 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, SACRUS said:

GGEM

 

It looks like 3 lows.

[cleetussnow]

Multiple lows effing this up.  

[dseagull]

Just now, Mo Snow said:

dang why is the western precip shield so small

...because it's showing an unrealistic 977 just off Buxton.   It's trash.   And it actually gives us some hope. 

[psv88]

Damn. This storm is dead. Cold and dry it is 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Makes me think we still have time to fix it for better or worse cause even models don’t know clearly

The storm is closing off so far south. 

[nycsnow]

This is brutal ugly storm… over it just get it over with and then 300 miles OTS

[SACRUS]

GGEM 

 

 

It reminded me of the tropical season

 

[SACRUS]

GGEM consolidates to one well offshore

 

[SACRUS]

GGEM Total QPF

[kat5hurricane]

I'm fine with a miss, these huge snow mountains are causing major disruption  and it's not going anywhere anytime soon so I'm fine with not another 6"+ added to the pile. The snow weenie in me is struggling with rooting against this thing but the more practical side of me wants no part of it.

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

GGEM 

 

 

It reminded me of the tropical season

 

In the winter what a joke 

[dseagull]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

GGEM 

 

 

It reminded me of the tropical season

 

Yea, minus the upstream kicker.   Im not sold on any of this if a run shows inconsistencies in placement.   

 

Let the Euro run, then stick a fork in it...

[Mo Snow]

so what did the GFS show for 2/5-2/6...

[SACRUS]

 

UKMET lows * 2

 

 

[SACRUS]

UK

[SACRUS]

UKMET Total QPF

 

[dseagull]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

UK

Hahahah.  A 968 scooting East at light speed.  This doesnt make sense. 

[nycsnow]

Ukie only went 700 miles n/w since 12z

[eduggs]

The 18z ECM was the only model for the past several days to depict the weenie mid-level fronto band displaced very far northwest of the SLP that sometimes materializes in these wrapped up ULLs. The 18z run really wrings it out in western SNE - would probably be 10" of powder back to Springfield and Hartford on that depiction. But it even affects the NYC area for several hours. We need to see the ribbon of vorticity out ahead of the ULL punch further NW into Canada to allow the cutoff more room to curl up underneath. That allows the mid-level goods to retrograde further west. Odds are against us based on minimal support even amongst ensembles. But I'll be watching that key band of vorticity as we enter the hail mary range.

[dseagull]

Crazy uncle needs a straight jacket.  That is some wild stuff that would set records.  If it's going to be a complete miss, please let it verify.  One for the ages. 

[nycsnow]

I’m giving it til 12z 

[MJO812]

Gefs better

[UKWeatherGeek.]

10 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Hahahah.  A 968 scooting East at light speed.  This doesnt make sense. 

We disregard the UKMet model here too.

[eduggs]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs better

This is probably one of those cases where probability of exceedance does a better job than QPF mean at characterizing the likelihood of impact. A few high QPF members are likely skewing the mean.

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

NYCSNOW - During the winter of 1976 or 1977 there was an area-wide event dubbed the "One inch blizzard." It was exactly what they called it. You might be able to search for it.

2/2/1976