January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Interstate]

RGEM is nice

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

RGEM is nice

Let’s see

[TSSN+]

May the colder and weaker primary trend continue

[Solution Man]

GFS looks rock steady through 33

[arlwx12]

What the local TV is saying at 430 am for the immediate DC area:

Channel 4: in the 6-12 band

Channel 5: in the 6-12 band

Channel 7:  NAM 8, GFS 13

Channel 9: will depend on how much mixing

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, arlwx12 said:

What the local TV is saying at 430 am for the immediate DC area:

Channel 4: in the 6-12 band

Channel 5: in the 6-12 band

Channel 7:  NAM 8, GFS 13

Channel 9: will depend on how much mixing

I expect that, gives them room

[TSSN+]

Rgem 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS Sunday 4am

[Solution Man]

Snow in region at 45: looking about same as 0z

[arlwx12]

Room also in LWX's forecast for DCA:

Saturday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 17. Northeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow, freezing rain, and sleet. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Northeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Sunday Night

Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 10pm, then snow and freezing rain between 10pm and 4am, then a chance of snow after 4am. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of around an inch possible.

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Rgem 

Wow! Big improvement. Hopefully the models are picking up on the power of this cold.

[Solution Man]

Money frames inbound at 51 and colder

[Weather Will]

7am

[Weather Will]

10 am

[Solution Man]

Getting rocked at 57

[Weather Will]

4 pm

[Weather Will]

7 pm

[Solution Man]

Still getting rocked at 60, freezing line around Fredericksburg 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

7 pm

Smoke show up here

[Solution Man]

About the best run we could ask for and still more to come as we flip back

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Rgem 

[dailylurker]

Just now, Solution Man said:

About the best run we could ask for and still more to come as we flip back

Man.. I hope that backside works out. Light to moderate snow Sunday night would be pure powder.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS....another solid run!!!

[TSSN+]

Gfs smoke show 

[Solution Man]

D.C. goes from 11.9 to 13.2

[winter_warlock]

11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Rgem 

That does look like an improvement over 00z to my untrained eye

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Smoke show up here

Gfs has slowly shifted some towards other guidance if you account for the fact it can’t see mid level warm layers and adjust the snow/ice line 20-30 miles NW like you have to. Then it looks identical to the euro and rgem. 

The warmest guidance shifted colder. The coldest shifted warmer and they ended up converging on about what the euro has shown the last 24 hours. Shocking. 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs has slowly shifted some towards other guidance if you account for the fact it can’t see mid level warm layers and adjust the snow/ice line 20-30 miles NW like you have to. Then it looks identical to the euro and rgem. 

The warmest guidance shifted colder. The coldest shifted warmer and they ended up converging on about what the euro has shown the last 24 hours. Shocking. 

Looks pretty dang cold to me 

 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

That does look like an improvement over 00z to my untrained eye

A shit ton of that accumulation along 95 is sleet. Like 3” of sleet!  6z brings in this ridiculous band and dumps close to an inch of qpf midday Sunday most of which is sleet but hey that counts!  It also did beef up the snow before the flip by 1-3”. 

[CAPE]

Mt Holly only mentions snow and freezing rain in the forecast for here- no mention of sleet. Maybe they are taking the Euro verbatim with its freezing rain output. GFS has more significant sleet and less amounts of zr.