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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2


mappy
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11 minutes ago, Jebman said:

This board has really become kinda slow. It's been really fun readin all the posts - but now everything has kind of fallen off.

What really tends to irk me is how we faithfully track storms, only to have the damn NNE get the snow, while we make due with the scraps. Time after time, after time after time.

People are just exhausted man.  Me included.  

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10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

People are just exhausted man.  Me included.  

Well I hope you all get some well-deserved rest, and while you sleep the models self correct and you wake up Saturday to good news, even more snow than we were seeing on the models on Monday and Tuesday. The main NWS website map gets all lit up with red WSW's and orange Blizzard warnings as the meteorologists play catch up as true frigid Day After Tomorrow Winter finally arrives in Washington, DC!. Just about as colorful as a Christmas Tree.

The NS is going to get its act together and the storm is gonna wallop the entire DMV Region with feet of pow, as the revitalized storm makes a good George BM weather story seem like a mild April day on The Mall..

Because Jeb said so.

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If the Euro AI comes in with a more stretchy, positive NS piece then I will be interested. That seemed to be one of the drivers of the slight improvement last run. Luckily that one comes out fast and that change can be seen early... if it tightens up/gets sharper, even before the phase I'm thinking we are at the very least not getting any better. But won't be long to find out...

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7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

This is an impactful winter storm and we (DC) are likely going to see a warning level snowfall followed by a few inches of sleet and maybe some freezing rain.  Followed by frigid temps.  That’s historic and IMO folks need to stop complaining their 16” of snow from 3 days ago are gone.  Move on and accept it.

 

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3 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Oh wait, pivotal already has the AI out. It's warmer. Basically back to 12z.

Not sure if drier or just sleetier earlier. But the AI has less snow verbatim on 10:1 than 12z still. If the ptype isn't whacked out on the AI then with >10:1 initial ratios basically still the 6-10 for metros then sleet picture.

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