January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[ravensrule]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

Jeb I was supposed to be flying out your way on Sunday - obviously that's not happening, now we're going next weekend.  Aren't you worried about losing power?

His power is generated by his Jebwalk, he has nothing to worry about. 

[Jebman]

5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Jeb I was supposed to be flying out your way on Sunday - obviously that's not happening, now we're going next weekend.  Aren't you worried about losing power?

No, my location is really only going to get really cold for 3 days but with only a tenth of an inch of ice. I feel really bad for the people who have to deal with 2 inches of solid ice.

Hey if you fly out to TX - try out the brisket out here. Damn that stuff is so good!

Besides, if I do lose power, I would just sleep in my car, I got lots of cozy blankets and thick beach towels and I'd just cover up and snooze right through all the ice, if we got that much.

[Berlin1926]

4 minutes ago, Jebman said:

This board has really become kinda slow. It's been really fun readin all the posts - but now everything has kind of fallen off.

Model fatigue?

[Jebman]

2 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

Model fatigue?

Yep, and it just seems all the models have to offer the DMV, is more sleet and less snow these days.

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, Jebman said:

This board has really become kinda slow. It's been really fun readin all the posts - but now everything has kind of fallen off.

What really tends to irk me is how we faithfully track storms, only to have the damn NNE get the snow, while we make due with the scraps. Time after time, after time after time.

People are just exhausted man.  Me included.  

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

People are just exhausted man.  Me included.  

I can barely see straight and have to be up at 5:00 am but I’m staying up for your Euro pbp. Bring this baby home for us. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, ravensrule said:

I can barely see straight and have to be up at 5:00 am but I’m staying up for your Euro pbp. Bring this baby home to us. 

My advice, go to bed.  Nothing good can come from this.  I'm tired, but my insomnia probably will win out.

[Jebman]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

People are just exhausted man.  Me included.  

Well I hope you all get some well-deserved rest, and while you sleep the models self correct and you wake up Saturday to good news, even more snow than we were seeing on the models on Monday and Tuesday. The main NWS website map gets all lit up with red WSW's and orange Blizzard warnings as the meteorologists play catch up as true frigid Day After Tomorrow Winter finally arrives in Washington, DC!. Just about as colorful as a Christmas Tree.

The NS is going to get its act together and the storm is gonna wallop the entire DMV Region with feet of pow, as the revitalized storm makes a good George BM weather story seem like a mild April day on The Mall..

Because Jeb said so.

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

My advice, go to bed.  Nothing good can come from this.  I'm tired, but my insomnia probably will win out.

It’s an illness and I actually think something good can come out of it, otherwise I would have been sleeping at 10:00 pm. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

People are just exhausted man.  Me included.  

Here's my two cents.

I've heard this hobby is exhausting for a lot of y'all. It hasn't gotten to me yet, maybe 'cause I'm still youthful, but if you're staying up for the 0z runs you're likely not getting more than six hours of sleep. That's awful for mental and physical health. Some of y'all should sleep in—0z ain't gonna change one bit whether you see it or not—so get that extra two hours of sleep.

 

[ravensrule]

Just now, bncho said:

Here's my two cents.

I've heard this hobby is exhausting for a lot of y'all. It hasn't gotten to me yet, maybe 'cause I'm still youthful, but if you're staying up for the 0z runs you're likely not getting more than six hours of sleep. That's awful for mental and physical health. Some of y'all should sleep in—0z ain't gonna change one bit whether you see it or not—so get that extra two hours of sleep.

 

Getting advice from a 14 year old. What have i done to myself. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

Rest up weenies, we got three more days. 

As for me, bedtime is 1:30 AM anyways. Bring on the Euro.

[baltosquid]

If the Euro AI comes in with a more stretchy, positive NS piece then I will be interested. That seemed to be one of the drivers of the slight improvement last run. Luckily that one comes out fast and that change can be seen early... if it tightens up/gets sharper, even before the phase I'm thinking we are at the very least not getting any better. But won't be long to find out...

[davidjd1114]

I can barely see straight and have to be up at 5:00 am but I’m staying up for your Euro pbp. Bring this baby home for us. 

Same I’m struggling


.

[bncho]

Euro's up and running. Let's go nighttime crew!

[baltosquid]

Oh wait, pivotal already has the AI out. It's warmer. Basically back to 12z.

[TowsonWeather]

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

This is an impactful winter storm and we (DC) are likely going to see a warning level snowfall followed by a few inches of sleet and maybe some freezing rain.  Followed by frigid temps.  That’s historic and IMO folks need to stop complaining their 16” of snow from 3 days ago are gone.  Move on and accept it.

 

[baltosquid]

3 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Oh wait, pivotal already has the AI out. It's warmer. Basically back to 12z.

Not sure if drier or just sleetier earlier. But the AI has less snow verbatim on 10:1 than 12z still. If the ptype isn't whacked out on the AI then with >10:1 initial ratios basically still the 6-10 for metros then sleet picture.

[stormtracker]

[bncho]

18z comparison

[stormtracker]

[stormtracker]

[stormtracker]

[bncho]

Euro looks a touch warmer

[bncho]

Euro, however, is a touch wetter

[balltermen]

looks more progressive and flatter which is good. 

[bncho]

Just now, balltermen said:

looks more progressive and flatter which is good. 

hey, this is my time to shine. i need to get a chance on the varsity team, man.

[bncho]

Euro actually being wetter gives it quite a prolific thump!

[ravensrule]

Just now, bncho said:

Euro actually being wetter gives it quite a prolific thump!

I have so much to say to this. 

[clskinsfan]

The AI is like .7 before the flip I think. I am just glad that we are going to see snow before the ice at this point.