January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[Chadzachadam]

Not to be overly optimistic but I think some of the guesses above are too pessimistic. NWS may well adjust downwards but they also know and adjust for our area in their forecast which a global model obviously doesn't. I still think this is a widespread 10-12"+ before sleet becomes too much of an issue. I don't think 12-16" total is unreasonable given the surface temps and duration

[MGorse]

41 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Was pretty shocked with the NWS briefing from MT. Holly this morning. They have allentown at 76% chance to hit and exceed 12in and a 38% chance to hit and exceed 18in. 

That is straight from the NBM guidance. 

[The Iceman]

1 minute ago, MGorse said:

That is straight from the NBM guidance. 

Was wondering that myself, thank you for clarifying! Unbelievable how bullish the NBM is right now. The NBM is a blend of the GFS/GFS ensembles, NAM nest, and euro/euro ensembles correct?

[Albedoman]

2 hours ago, rcostell said:

Still getting a chuckle out of this... maybe if we were at 10K feet in Little Cottonwood Canyon in Utah during an upslope storm...

go ahead and laugh but i been in both situations. How old are you?

[The Iceman]

Euro is much drier, hopefully a blip. But significantly cuts back the thump by .2-.3 LE.

[RedSky]

ECM is evolving into something less impressive not liking it

6-10" snow thump 1-1.25" frozen sleet and stuff and dryslot 

GFS is a MECS
 

 

[MGorse]

9 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Was wondering that myself, thank you for clarifying! Unbelievable how bullish the NBM is right now. The NBM is a blend of the GFS/GFS ensembles, NAM nest, and euro/euro ensembles correct?

Not just those. This is an older image, but gives a great summary of the NBM inputs. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

12z Euro and also including their ice prog - 

[Albedoman]

47 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

It had the low end for me(TTN area) at 10" and the high end at 23". 50% chance of 18" or more... I have to think both go down next briefing but who knows. That was extremely bullish though I agree.

ITs on the mark. LV has been an overpeformer all winter thus far. Srating with the 16+ in of snow this year to -10 yesterday.  Mt Holly and the NBM models are spot on. My criteria is also being met for a MECS scenario. The LP moving closer to the BM should close the deal in the the mesos runs OZ tonight. CCB and where it sets up with bandingwill be the tell all for final snow accumalations. Still, biggest concerns, drifting in the rural areas and extreme cold Mon- Wed

 

[The Iceman]

I’ve personally never witnessed freezing rain with temps in the teens(may have happened in 94 i don’t know I was 3) but that’s what the euro shows. Yikes.

[RedSky]

1 minute ago, Albedoman said:

ITs on the mark. LV has been an overpeformer all winter thus far. Srating with the 16+ in of snow this year to -10 yesterday.  Mt Holly and the NBM models are spot on. My criteria is also being met for a MECS scenario. The LP moving closer to the BM should close the deal in the the mesos runs OZ tonight. CCB and where it sets up with bandingwill be the tell all for final snow accumalations. Still, biggest concerns, drifting in the rural areas and extreme cold Mon- Wed

 

I wouldn't be concerned about drifting this will have a shell of sleet on top, already the euro is showing zr making it into my region

 

[rcostell]

14 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

go ahead and laugh but i been in both situations. How old are you?

I'm 68.  Only in the Rockies (and occasionally Northern Adirondacks) have I skied snow that fell in ratios you stated, no offense). I wish, but not happening that we see those here, with this storm.  

[tcutter]

This has been one heckuva a north "trend" from just a few days ago. If AI can conquer longer range weather forecasting one day that will be a truly impressive feat.

[zenmsav6810]

Expecting a NAM'ing at 18z. 

[Albedoman]

Just now, RedSky said:

I wouldn't be concerned about drifting this will have a shell of sleet on top, already the euro is showing zr making it into my region

 

In northern Lehigh county, drifting is  a huge deal. Urbanized areas,  basically no issue. Many of the posters don ot even know where Lowhill Township is in Lehigh County. South mountain  topgraphically is the cutoff for sleet in this storm

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

I’ve personally never witnessed freezing rain with temps in the teens(may have happened in 94 i don’t know I was 3) but that’s what the euro shows. Yikes.

I remember there were over a dozen ice storms from December '93 into January/February '94.  It was a frigging mess.    I don't know if any happened when it was teens here in the city but some of the temps were pretty frigid.

During one of the worst of them in January '94, I had to go down to Baltimore on a work trip and was going to take Amtrak but was driving to 30th St. Station to park and hop the train.  On my way there as the storm was underway, I was about to go up on the Expressway when I heard on KYW that it was icy so I bypassed the exit ramp from Lincoln Drive to go up that way, and took the Kelly Drive instead.  Found out later that people were trapped on the Expressway for something like 8 hours as cars/trucks got stuck on the ramps and no one could get on or off.  That was also a time when the area was all out of road and consumer salt.  So when I was down in Baltimore, I bought a couple bags of halite (they only had plain rain down there) and brought that back for my mom.  For the rest of that winter, she was the only one on her block with a walk clear and dry to the pavement!  But sadly enough, there was a red cedar tree between her house and her neighbor's that was at least 30ft tall and the ice literally coated the tree and uprooted the whole thing, which ended up splayed across the front yards and halfway into the street.

[zenmsav6810]

Just now, Hurricane Agnes said:

I remember there were over a dozen ice storms from December '93 into January/February '94.  It was a frigging mess.    I don't know if any happened when it was teens here in the city but some of the temps were pretty frigid.

During one of the worst of them in January '94, I had to go down to Baltimore on a work trip and was going to take Amtrak but was driving to 30th St. Station to park and hop the train.  On my way there as the storm was underway, I was about to go up on the Expressway when I heard on KYW that it was icy so I bypassed the exit ramp from Lincoln Drive to go up that way, and took the Kelly Drive instead.  Found out later that people were trapped on the Expressway for something like 8 hours as cars/trucks got stuck on the ramps and no one could get on or off.  That was also a time when the area was all out of road and consumer salt.  So when I was down in Baltimore, I bought a couple bags of halite (they only had plain rain down there) and brought that back for my mom.  For the rest of that winter, she was the only one on her block with a walk clear and dry to the pavement!  But sadly enough, there was a red cedar tree between her house and her neighbor's that was at least 30ft tall and the ice literally coated the tree and uprooted the whole thing, which ended up splayed across the front yards and halfway into the street.

Hear there is a salt shortage this go round to at least in honeybrook/coatesville area. 

[The Iceman]

Just now, zenmsav6810 said:

Hear there is a salt shortage this go round to at least in honeybrook/coatesville area. 

I went to 4 different spots last night and couldn't find any. Ended up settling for pool salt at wal-mart(it does the same thing, just not as concentrated). 20 lb bag for like 9 bucks

[zenmsav6810]

3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I went to 4 different spots last night and couldn't find any. Ended up settling for pool salt at wal-mart(it does the same thing, just not as concentrated). 20 lb bag for like 9 bucks

well shoot! A ZR storm it will be. How does this kinda thing happen. We should be well supplied with the winters weve had recently.

 

 

[The Iceman]

17 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I wouldn't be concerned about drifting this will have a shell of sleet on top, already the euro is showing zr making it into my region

 

Looking at some of the soundings, I just really question that would be freezing rain honestly. I don't see it. Temps are like 18-19F for most of the area and even the warmest levels are just barely above 0c,they aren't scorching. Looks more like sleet in my opinion.

[Albedoman]

7 minutes ago, rcostell said:

I'm 68.  Only in the Rockies (and occasionally Northern Adirondacks) have I skied snow that fell in ratios you stated, no offense). I wish, but not happening that we see those here, with this storm.  

I agree 25:1 ratios are impossible for here but I have seen almost 20:1 here in storms before, epecially when the LP wraps up at the benchmark and upsloping along the Blue and S Moutains exist. Not quite as impressive as out west with the higher  elevations like in the Sierras and Bitterroots etc but it is nothing to sneeze here if the quebec high is strong enough. That is why I say 1035mb  is the minimum for any good storm to come about here with higher snow ratios.

[Hurricane Agnes]

4 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Hear there is a salt shortage this go round to at least in honeybrook/coatesville area. 

 

2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I went to 4 different spots last night and couldn't find any. Ended up settling for pool salt at wal-mart(it does the same thing, just not as concentrated). 20 lb bag for like 9 bucks

Heard about the shortage on the radio this morning.  I bought a couple jugs over the past years when I happened to see them at the supermarket  and still have a couple intact and one partial (and I  keep one in my car).   I remember back in '94, people were using kitty litter to spread on the ice.  

[Birds~69]

22 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I’ve personally never witnessed freezing rain with temps in the teens(may have happened in 94 i don’t know I was 3) but that’s what the euro shows. Yikes.

It did. Temps in the teens, steady/heavy FZ and it seemed like for hours.

[RedSky]

11 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

In northern Lehigh county, drifting is  a huge deal. Urbanized areas,  basically no issue. Many of the posters don ot even know where Lowhill Township is in Lehigh County. South mountain  topgraphically is the cutoff for sleet in this storm

 

Honestly we will likely be talking about sleet to Scranton by 0z Saturday

 

[rcostell]

2 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

I agree 25:1 ratios are impossible for here but I have seen almost 20:1 here in storms before, epecially when the LP wraps up at the benchmark and upsloping along the Blue and S Moutains exist. Not quite as impressive as out west with the higher  elevations like in the Sierras and Bitterroots etc but it is nothing to sneeze here if the quebec high is strong enough. That is why I say 1035mb  is the minimum for any good storm to come about here with higher snow ratios.

Sierras too wet...high ratios uncommon ("Sierra cement").  I've been to Blue Mountain (skiing) Hawk Mountain (Walking/watching) and Blue Mountain Winery (quaffing) so I may have your location triangulated. Very pretty up there. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

38 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

go ahead and laugh but i been in both situations. How old are you?

You're just upset because this will put a dent in the drought 

[Birds~69]

My O' my how the mood has changed in here after one run...

[rcostell]

4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

It did. Temps in the teens, heavy FZ and it seemed like for hours.

Concur- Had people ice skating down our streets...laid awake listening to branches breaking and thumping down.  No repeats needed. Driving was impossible. 

[RedSky]

Just now, Birds~69 said:

My O' my how the mood has changed in here after one run...

Eh ZR is coming the question is how much 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Expecting a NAM'ing at 18z. 

Saw this in March 2018(?) where the gfs was all snow from a coastal but the NAM continually showed a warm tongue going all the way back to York County. We all just shrugged it off as the hi res nam over forecasting the warm tongue. It was correct and actually not aggressive enough with that feature. Iirc, the gfs never even caved to the nam, it just stubbornly bombed that storm forecast.