1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[bearman]

29 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Hrr at 24 just put lp in middle tn

Would that not keep precipitation liquid east of the low?  I don't ever remember seeing frozen anything east of a surface low?

[Tucker1027]

31 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Hrr at 24 just put lp in middle tn

you sure? 

 

[*Flash*]

Taking a look at that green shaft and it occurred to me: Lotta babies are going to be born in October this year. Maybe more Ferns heading into 2027? 

[nrgjeff]

00Z follows 18Z colder than earlier runs. Damn! Hoped 18Z was just a blip. Perhaps I jinxed Chattanooga several pages back with..

I'm not too worried locally. CAD only wraps around when I want to chase storms! Welp. We'll see about that on Saturday. 

Joking aside, all this does is increase confidence in a devastating ice storm from the Mid-South to Mid-Tenn. This is a truly upper end event.

Models are split on the sleet vs FZRA question in MEM. Most reliable short-term ensemble favors sleet. Same NAM. Couple of the newer hi-res models FZRA.

Then for BNA the colder temps simply boost FZRA amounts. MEM is living on the edge between damaging and truly catastrophic. BNA is just living on the edge I guess. 

Then up in northeast Tennessee, y'all in the microclimates gotta take it from here. Good night and be safe.

[Mrwolf1972]

30 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

you sure? 

 

Yes

[*Flash*]

12 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

00Z follows 18Z colder than earlier runs. Damn! Hoped 18Z was just a blip. Perhaps I jinxed Chattanooga several pages back with..

I'm not too worried locally. CAD only wraps around when I want to chase storms! Welp. We'll see about that on Saturday. 

Joking aside, all this does is increase confidence in a devastating ice storm from the Mid-South to Mid-Tenn. This is a truly upper end event.

Models are split on the sleet vs FZRA question in MEM. Most reliable short-term ensemble favors sleet. Same NAM. Couple of the newer hi-res models FZRA.

Then for BNA the colder temps simply boost FZRA amounts. MEM is living on the edge between damaging and truly catastrophic. BNA is just living on the edge I guess. 

Then up in northeast Tennessee, y'all in the microclimates gotta take it from here. Good night and be safe.

But for the entire state, we’re living’ on a prayer, one way or another. Whoa ohhh…

Side note: Jeff, could the colder trend lead to a longer period of sleet at BNA before the freezing rain? 

[nrgjeff]

Could be in places on the bubble, re sleet vs FZRA.

2 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

But for the entire state, we’re living’ on a prayer, one way or another. Whoa ohhh…

Side note: Jeff, could the colder trend lead to a longer period of sleet before the freezing rain?

Love the Bon Jovi reference. Rock on!

[John1122]

The 21z RAP was insane from the west side of tne eastern valley, and back into the midstate. It looked like the crazy Canadian run from a day or so ago. 

[Tucker1027]

@nrgjeffgod help us if this happens.. 

[housemtnTN]

1 minute ago, Tucker1027 said:

@nrgjeffgod help us if this happens.. 

That's uh, wowzerz.

[Hurricaneguy]

Not familiar with the HWR WRF. Has it been generally reliable? 

[Tucker1027]

Just now, Hurricaneguy said:

Not familiar with the HWR WRF. Has it been generally reliable? 

No clue.. 

[Matthew70]

58 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Taking a look at that green shaft and it occurred to me: Lotta babies are going to be born in October this year. Maybe more Ferns heading into 2027? 

I’m going to be sick. If that happens it will be a true disaster.  With the cold behind this system means it gets really dangerous for many & good grief and the busted pipes.  Sigh. 

[John1122]

The RUFUS really moved south with snow at 18 and 00z

[Scottie16]

The RUFUS really moved south with snow at 18 and 00z

No official postings but I believe the RAP is broken.


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[Scottie16]

Bat Signal!


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[Vol4Life]

2 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Bat Signal!


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What model is that?

[Vol4Life]

11 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The RUFUS really moved south with snow at 18 and 00z

where is the southern extent of the snow now?

[Matthew70]

I’ll say this.  The GFS is going down with the ship that the low stays south. 

[John1122]

8 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

where is the southern extent of the snow now?

At 12z it was riding the Tennessee/Kentucky border. At 0z it shows 1.5 inches down to Knoxville. 

It's the planned replacement model for the NAM and HRRR. 

[bearman]

Has Morristown been in the WSW, or have they just been added? It seems they were in the Ice storm warning earlier in the day.

[Tucker1027]

3 minutes ago, bearman said:

Has Morristown been in the WSW, or have they just been added? It seems they were in the Ice storm warning earlier in the day.

Looks like they were added at around 8pm 

[WintryMixmaster]

2 minutes ago, bearman said:

Has Morristown been in the WSW, or have they just been added? It seems they were in the Ice storm warning earlier in the day.

Did they recently update? I saw they gave us a WWA though, down from Ice Storm warning. Hopefully that means less ice than expected. I feel like yesterday the short range models had us almost immediately going over to sleet, now it looks like our area will get at least some light snow tomorrow afternoon. Maybe get on the board for the season on accumulations

[housemtnTN]

38 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Bat Signal!


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What would happen to that pocket of warm air once fully surrounded by the cold?

[Scottie16]

What would happen to that pocket of warm air once fully surrounded by the cold?

That’s up Jeffs ally. I’m assuming the winds from the Southeast is the culprit behind it.


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[Matthew70]

It does seem all the models have went south about 2 counties.  The front end thump of snow has also increased for Nashville proper.  The worse of the ice for TN seems th bullseye is straight into Nashville. 
The GFS is not going down alone.  Will the Euro jump on board with the GFS & other models?

[Tucker1027]

It does seem all the models have went south about 2 counties.  The front end thump of snow has also increased for Nashville proper.  The worse of the ice for TN seems th bullseye is straight into Nashville. 
The GFS is not going down alone.  Will the Euro jump on board with the GFS & other models?

Euro and GFS are nearly worthless right now… HRRR and NAM are what we should be paying attention to.

Snow line is much more to the south than the NAM and HRRR have it


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[Matthew70]

Ice & snow have nothing on me! I’m ready!

[Scottie16]

Euro and GFS are nearly worthless right now… HRRR and NAM are what we should be paying attention to.

Snow line is much more to the south than the NAM and HRRR have it


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Those winds coming in from Montana at the low level is something to see.



You can also see the Baja Low.





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[John1122]

Euro AI has almost 2 inches of snow to downtown Knoxville now. Snow is shifting south across all modeling as we get closer to the event. Keep in mind, the Euro is a high resolution model, higher than the NAM for instance.