1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Scottie16]

Based on current data as of Thursday, January 22, 2026, the prediction for Sweetwater, TN is a high-impact, complex winter event. Because Sweetwater sits south of Knoxville along the I-75 corridor, it is currently in the "danger zone" for a significant transition from snow to ice.
The Most Likely Outcome
Saturday Morning: Precipitation starts as heavy wet snow. Initial accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible before the transition begins.
Saturday Afternoon/Night: The "warm nose" is forecast to push into Monroe County. Expect snow to transition to sleet and then freezing rain. This is the most dangerous period for Sweetwater.
Sunday: As the storm pulls away, wrap-around moisture may bring a final period of light snow flurries, but little additional accumulation is expected.
Sweetwater Specific Hazards
Ice Accretion: Latest NWS Morristown guidance places the heaviest ice potential (up to 0.50") south of a line from Crossville to Tellico Plains—a zone that includes Sweetwater. This amount of ice is sufficient to cause widespread power outages and snap tree limbs.
Travel: I-75 through Monroe and Loudon counties will likely become treacherous. Even if snow totals are lower than predicted, the layer of ice on top will make roads impassable.
The "Valley Effect": Cold air often gets trapped in the Tennessee Valley (the "Great Valley"). This could cause the freezing rain to last longer in Sweetwater than models predict, as the surface cold air is "stubborn" and difficult to move.
The "Fork in the Road"
The "Snow" Surprise (South Track): If the storm shifts just 50 miles south, the warm nose stays in Georgia. Sweetwater would likely see 8 to 12 inches of snow with no ice.
The "Rain" Bust (North Track): If the storm shifts further north, the warm nose could be so strong that temperatures rise above 32°F at the surface, turning most of the event into a cold, heavy rain with only a brief wintry start.
Recommendation: Prepare for a prolonged power outage starting Saturday evening. For the most localized, minute-by-minute data, monitor the NWS Morristown and the TEMA Winter Weather Dashboard for emergency alerts.

You’d think Carver wrote this.


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[Daniel Boone]

May get an eventual occurence similar to January '94 in the Tennessee and Kentucky area. Parts of North/central Kentucky got 2 Feet of Snow. Northern Plateau to SEKY significant Ice to 5-10 inches of Snow. However, the Snow was after changeover.

[John1122]

The Euro was 3-5 degrees cooler in the first 12 hours of the event across the area.

[Mrwolf1972]

2 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

Yay more ice lol

[nrgjeff]

Sweetwater could be that line in the sand for the Great Valley. I'm pretty sure the warm nose wins south of there. Sweetwater and Athens are a slightly elevated area relative to CHA and TYS. Could be less certain north of there. 

Chattanooga local notes: Signal, Lookout, and Flatop are not going to get as warm as KCHA. Could stay <32 deg for the duration. They are all still locked in for Warning criteria ice. Downtown to maybe East Brainerd, I'm much less concerned - except Saturday. Then Sunday may cut.

[Vol4Life]

Just now, John1122 said:

The Euro was 3-5 degrees cooler in the first 12 hours of the event across the area.

Yes, I think it’s starting to finally see the effects of that HP.

[Carvers Gap]

We have Real Feels at -40F next Thursday on the Euro.  Probably could put that in the pattern thread, but that might affect people who are affected by the storm.

[nrgjeff]

Duration of extreme cold for areas without power and heat will be concerning. Mid-South to perhaps Mid-Tennessee are at risk. Then Mississippi is a whole other level of ice storm forecast. 

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Based on current data as of Thursday, January 22, 2026, the prediction for Sweetwater, TN is a high-impact, complex winter event. Because Sweetwater sits south of Knoxville along the I-75 corridor, it is currently in the "danger zone" for a significant transition from snow to ice.
The Most Likely Outcome
Saturday Morning: Precipitation starts as heavy wet snow. Initial accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible before the transition begins.
Saturday Afternoon/Night: The "warm nose" is forecast to push into Monroe County. Expect snow to transition to sleet and then freezing rain. This is the most dangerous period for Sweetwater.
Sunday: As the storm pulls away, wrap-around moisture may bring a final period of light snow flurries, but little additional accumulation is expected.
Sweetwater Specific Hazards
Ice Accretion: Latest NWS Morristown guidance places the heaviest ice potential (up to 0.50") south of a line from Crossville to Tellico Plains—a zone that includes Sweetwater. This amount of ice is sufficient to cause widespread power outages and snap tree limbs.
Travel: I-75 through Monroe and Loudon counties will likely become treacherous. Even if snow totals are lower than predicted, the layer of ice on top will make roads impassable.
The "Valley Effect": Cold air often gets trapped in the Tennessee Valley (the "Great Valley"). This could cause the freezing rain to last longer in Sweetwater than models predict, as the surface cold air is "stubborn" and difficult to move.
The "Fork in the Road"
The "Snow" Surprise (South Track): If the storm shifts just 50 miles south, the warm nose stays in Georgia. Sweetwater would likely see 8 to 12 inches of snow with no ice.
The "Rain" Bust (North Track): If the storm shifts further north, the warm nose could be so strong that temperatures rise above 32°F at the surface, turning most of the event into a cold, heavy rain with only a brief wintry start.
Recommendation: Prepare for a prolonged power outage starting Saturday evening. For the most localized, minute-by-minute data, monitor the NWS Morristown and the TEMA Winter Weather Dashboard for emergency alerts.

You’d think Carver wrote this.


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LOL.  Where did you find that?

[nrgjeff]

AI read your posts on the Internet. 

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  Where did you find that?

OK I'll let @Scottie16 answer for real.

[Scottie16]

LOL.  Where did you find that?

Honestly just playing around with AI


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[Mrwolf1972]

Eps 12z

[housemtnTN]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

We have Real Feels at -40F next Thursday on the Euro.  Probably could put that in the pattern thread, but that might affect people who are affected by the storm.

I cannot imagine that type of cold.

I grew up in the mountains of the tri cities area and the coldest I can remember it being was -11°F one morning. I believe it was around 2013 or so. I have no idea what the wind chills were, but I had to be at work early that morning. My door latch froze after opening the door and had to use the seat belt wrapped around the interior door handle to keep the thing shut lol.

[Scottie16]

What to watch today (Thursday)
If the NWS Morristown afternoon forecast discussion notes a "southward trend in the guidance" or mentions that "cold air at the surface looks more stubborn," the probability of a high-accumulation snow event for East Tennessee is increasing.


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[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Scottie16 said:

Honestly just playing around with AI


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Haha.  I always tell my friends...you will know I am not AI, because I have too many typos in what I write.  Between self correct and typing fast, I make all kinds of errors.  I generally go back and proof one more time after I post - I just shake my head.  If I ever start posting stuff that doesn't have typos...you know the singularity got me!  Even better, I am very prone to getting model names and model run times (0z,6z,12z,etc) mixed up.   For once, my typos are a good thing!

[Scottie16]

This is Ai, not a forecast.


As of the afternoon of Thursday, January 22, 2026, there are several indications that the Arctic high-pressure system is trending stronger and faster than models originally predicted earlier in the week.
This shift is a key driver for a potential "snow surprise" in Sweetwater, TN. Here is the current data:
1. Near-Record Central Pressure
The high-pressure system currently over the Northern Plains is exceptionally dense. Newest model data shows a central pressure of 1050 to 1052 mb.
The Trend: Meteorologists have noted that this is near record-high pressure for the region at this time of year.
Significance: A higher central pressure means the cold air mass is heavier and more difficult for a southern storm to "push" north.
2. The European Model "Correction"
One of the most telling signs is the behavior of the European (ECMWF) model, which is often considered the most reliable.
In the last 24 hours, the ECMWF has significantly "corrected" its forecast, shifting its surface high further south and making it stronger to align with the colder GFS (American) model.
This correction suggests that the model was previously underestimating the strength of the cold air "brick wall".
3. Faster Southward Plunge
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) and local NWS offices have noted that the Arctic air is plunging south faster than previously predicted.
For Sweetwater, this means the cold air may already be "locked in" at the surface before the heaviest moisture arrives on Saturday.
A faster-moving high helps set up Cold Air Damming (CAD), where cold air gets "wedged" against the mountains, potentially preventing the "warm nose" from ever reaching the ground.
What This Means for Sweetwater's "Snow Surprise"
Because the high is proving to be so robust, it is creating a southward suppression of the storm track.
If the high stays this strong, it could shunt the low-pressure system far enough south (into Central Alabama/Georgia) to keep the "warm nose" completely away from the Tennessee Valley.
Result: This would flip the forecast from a "messy mix" back to all snow, potentially leading to much higher accumulations than currently forecast.
Current Verdict: The high is indeed verifying as stronger than earlier model runs suggested. While this doesn't guarantee all snow, it significantly increases the odds of a colder, snowier outcome for East Tennessee compared to the "rainy mix" forecasts from yesterday.


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[Carvers Gap]

19 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro was 3-5 degrees cooler in the first 12 hours of the event across the area.

I have to think modeling is FINALLY feeling the effects of those big highs.  Cold air is just pouring down the west flank of the Apps.  I looked at the wind on this morning's runs(after reading MRX's write up about mountain waves being possible), and you can see the cold just running parallel to the Apps and making a beeline southward.  

[nrgjeff]

Yeah the early charts were a little light on snow and ice for northeast Tenn. Euro is in line with the national charts from WPC. MRX will update accordingly. 

9 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

What to watch today (Thursday)
If the NWS Morristown afternoon forecast discussion notes a "southward trend in the guidance" or mentions that "cold air at the surface looks more stubborn," the probability of a high-accumulation snow event for East Tennessee is increasing.

I still feel relatively safe in Chattanooga. I see trouble from Knoxville northeast. Relative in Chattanooga means some ice but not crushing. Knox to TRI needs to watch that cold lock more.

Separately, lol I was just kidding about the AI. Guess it's so.

[Scottie16]

Haha.  I always tell my friends...you will know I am not AI, because I have too many typos in what I write.  Between self correct and typing fast, I make all kinds of errors.  I generally go back and proof one more time after I post - I just shake my head.  If I ever start posting stuff that doesn't have typos...you know the singularity got me!  Even better, I am very prone to getting model names and model run times (0z,6z,12z,etc) mixed up.   For once, my typos are a good thing!

Haha I’m at the age now where I don’t even care to go back and fix typos. My brain will spew information that I can’t type fast enough so I definitely understand.

We got a few for other models to roll in, I recommend going over to Google and playing with the AI to see what it spits out for you LOL


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[Carvers Gap]

13 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

did they euro just cave??

@Carvers Gap

Which model did it cave to?  Looks like Hoth to me!

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEM-para moved southward.

[Scottie16]

Yeah the early charts were a little light on snow and ice for northeast Tenn. Euro is in line with the national charts from WPC. MRX will update accordingly. 
I still feel relatively safe in Chattanooga. I see trouble from Knoxville northeast. Relative in Chattanooga means some ice but not crushing. Knox to TRI needs to watch that cold lock more.
Separately, lol I was just kidding about the AI. Guess it's so.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see some dynamic cooling help Chattanooga in the initial thump.

I knew you were lol, funny that when I was reading it I immediately thought Carver or Jeff.

it’s pretty spot on with some of its info tho, I’ll give it credit this go around.


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[Tucker1027]

Which model did it cave to?  Looks like Hoth to me!

Well it caved on temps early on


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[Scottie16]

It’s worth mentioning that we’re now starting to see the effects on the recon data.


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[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

Well it caved on temps early on


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Ah.  Sure did.  What is interesting about that is that means the model will likely have to correct downstream as it approaches.  It is a decent sign modeling is behind the curve after about 36 hours or so.

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

It’s worth mentioning that we’re now starting to see the effects on the recon data.


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I haven't checked Steve's friend's (hurricant hunter source) update for today...but more should be gathered today.  I definitely thought of that.  My guess is that Arctic air mass is finally out of the information void above the Arctic Circle. 

[Carvers Gap]

Real feel Euro for next Thursday.  @Matthew70, this is what we don't want, right?  -40 real feels in the Apps. -10s to -20s in the valleys.

[Wurbus]

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

A significant winter storm is expected to impact the Southern
Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, and much of the south and central
CONUS, through the weekend. We are currently in a colder, longwave
troughing pattern across the Eastern CONUS with ridging across the
eastern Pacific. A northern stream shortwave will begin to phase
with an ejecting southern vort max on Sunday resulting in a quickly
intensifying surface low pressure system that will move northeast
across the East Coast.

Strong high pressure to the north keeps us dry today and Friday, but
increasing southerly flow aloft will result in increased cloud cover
late Friday into Saturday morning. As isentropic lift increases
across the region, light precipitation will be possible Saturday
morning, but dry air at the surface will limit any accumulating snow
or sleet. By the afternoon, the surface becomes saturated with
wintry precipitation expected to begin accumulating across the
region. To begin, areas near Interstate 40 and northward are
expected to have the entire atmospheric column below freezing which
will result in some potential snow to start on Saturday afternoon.
As southerly flow and WAA continues to warm temperatures between
850mb and 800mb, temperatures increase to around +2 to +3 degC by
late Saturday night and Sunday morning. This will result in a lot of
sleet and a transition to freezing rain across the region. In
addition, the southerly flow and subsidence along the western slopes
of the Appalachians will result in warming surface temperatures
across the western slopes of the mountains with areas around
Gatlinburg to Newport to Greeneville likely warming up above
freezing pretty quickly on Saturday night. This will limit ice
accumulation for these areas.

Across the valley and plateau, there are several variables that
will determine total snow, sleet, and freezing rain accumulation.
The first variable is the cold air aloft. Most of the snow will be
limited to areas near the Kentucky state line, and snow totals
will likely be compacted by sleet and freezing rain mixing in on
Saturday night. Further south, sleet and freezing rain will be the
predominant precipitation types on Saturday afternoon and night.
The second uncertain variable is the warm nose temperature around
800mb overnight; It will be near the sleet/freezing rain cutoff.
We likely get a mix of both sleet and freezing rain for much of
central East Tennessee, but depending on the exact mix, we may
have significantly more ice accretion due to freezing rain or
significantly more sleet (and less ice accretion). In addition,
the third variable is how cold are surface temperatures and where
do we wet bulb? Model guidance has significant variability in dew
points ahead of the precipitation, but based on the consensus of
most guidance, we should be cold enough in the mid 20s to get a
decent amount of ice accumulation before temperatures begin to
warm into Sunday morning.

Overall, a large portion of the region will likely see a trace to
a half-inch of sleet and one-quarter to one- half inch of ice
accumulation. Southern areas near the Georgia state line may only
see a trace to one-tenth of an inch of ice before the transition
to rain. The caveat across the south is the higher elevations
around Chattanooga such as Signal Mountain, Mowbray Mountain,
Lookout Mountain, and surrounding portions of the southern plateau
may see higher ice totals up to around 0.5 inch. Still, even
the lower amounts would cause significant travel impacts on
Saturday evening through Sunday morning. This forecast is likely
to change as we continue to refine the forecast with the most
recent observations tonight and tomorrow, so please continue to
follow the latest updates. Because of the uncertainty in
precipitation types and amounts, we will continue with the Winter
Storm Watch to message the risk of significant winter weather
hazards, and we will plan on upgrades to warnings or advisories
tonight or tomorrow when we are within 24 to 36 hours of the event
beginning.

On Sunday afternoon, the main 850mb low will be to our west with WAA
finally warming most, if not all, areas above freezing. Temperatures
will likely be slower to warm on Sunday morning across the valley
compared to what deterministic models indicate because of the cold,
dense air entrenched across the valley. WAA should finally win out
by the afternoon across the valley, but it will take some time. By
Sunday night, northwest flow returns with strong CAA and very cold
air arriving through the night and on Monday. We may continue to see
some orographic snowfall or rime ice across the northeast Tennessee
mountains through Monday morning, but accumulations should be light.

This very cold airmass will result in temperatures 20 to 25 degrees
below normal on Monday. Monday night into Tuesday morning,
temperatures drop down into the single digits for most locations
with temperatures near or below zero across the higher elevations.
Wind chill values across the higher terrain are forecast to be in
the -5F to -15F range; however, calm winds across the lower
elevations should mitigate the wind chill risk. Tuesday morning will
be frigid across the region, though.

As we move into mid-week, max temperatures begin to moderate but
remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Another cold front will bring a reinforcing cold airmass by late
next week with temperatures struggling to get above freezing next
Thursday.

[Scottie16]

I haven't checked Steve's friend's (hurricant hunter source) update for today...but more should be gathered today.  I definitely thought of that.  My guess is that Arctic air mass is finally out of the information void above the Arctic Circle. 

I’ll see if I can find the article I read earlier but your guess is correct. That air mass is from what I understand more dense than modeled.


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[Tucker1027]

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