1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Reb]

I think we will all sleep well tonight given what the Euro is currently spitting out. Monster historic winter storm nearly forum wide, 3+ runs in a row under 150 hours out now .

[Scottie16]

WOW.


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[jaxjagman]

Dont see much  difference through 96

[Scottie16]

WOW.


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Slingshot, engaged.


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[John1122]

Euro warm noses all the way to just north of 40 this run.

Lots of ice just below the pink areas. 

[John1122]

Basically along 40 and south has about .5 to .7 freezing rain on top of that 6 to 7 inches of snow. 

[Hurricaneguy]

Being in Greeneville and seeing that new Euro run. Here we go with the warm nose. It’s impossible for it not to happen in the last 8 years or so 

[John1122]

Not sure what happens that Euro run. It handles the cold bizarrely. At 12z the temperatures after the system passed were in the low 10s or colder Monday morning. Now they are in the lower 30s across eastern Tennessee. It's strange. 

[Scottie16]

Not sure what happens that Euro run. It handles the cold bizarrely. At 12z the temperatures after the system passed were in the low 10s or colder Monday morning. Now they are in the lower 30s across eastern Tennessee. It's strange. 

Euro just absorbs the Baja. Weird to see that big of a jump.


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[Scottie16]

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[John1122]

Behind the system at 12z vs 0z.

 

 

[John1122]

The EPS is loaded for the forum as well with a mean of 5 to 9 inches across the forum. 

Due to the nature of ensembles, they will usually be lighter and lower qpf than op models, as invariably some ensembles will be light or even blanks. 

[fountainguy97]

Mmm..  don't like what I'm seeing at 00z. All models taking a big step to the CMC. Euro now has a lot of mixing. 
 

We are trending away from a slider and more to an amped up LP.  Going to cause tons of mixing issues and likely rain for East TN. Not a good trend at all. And it's across all models. 

[Mrwolf1972]

Last night's models are scary 8 inches of snow then rain and 28 degrees we might never have power. 

[Mrwolf1972]

20 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Mmm..  don't like what I'm seeing at 00z. All models taking a big step to the CMC. Euro now has a lot of mixing. 
 

We are trending away from a slider and more to an amped up LP.  Going to cause tons of mixing issues and likely rain for East TN. Not a good trend at all. And it's across all models. 

Freezing rain look at sounding it stays below freezing the whole time. 

[Mrwolf1972]

Gfs all snow southern valley up to a foot on the 0z models at 10 to 1 probably be higher I'll take that. Icon 0z was a slider to all snow only the euro took a northern route hopefully it jogs back south today. 

[Vol4Life]

Hopefully today’s runs will show a less amped solution that keeps the LP more to the south.

[Scottie16]

How are we losing out on the 50oMB


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[Vol4Life]

Icon at 06z has mixing issues at the end of the run (120 hours) from about Knox south. From my untrained eye, it looks like high pressure moves eastward too quickly 

[Mrwolf1972]

9 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Icon at 06z has mixing issues at the end of the run (120 hours) from about Knox south. From my untrained eye, it looks like high pressure moves eastward too quickly 

Shows red but sounding below freezing the whole way 25 degrees 

[Vol4Life]

At 84 on 06Z GFS, there’s a 1050 H sitting in South Dakota

[Mrwolf1972]

2 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

At 84 on 06Z GFS, there’s a 1050 H sitting in South Dakota

1048 in Minnesota at 90 and coming south the low is in Mexico with lots of moisture 

[fountainguy97]

Gfs likely will tick north here and more amped. It absorbed more of the Baja energy.

[Mrwolf1972]

Low still in Mexico 1044 high in Illinois heavy snow in Tennessee along south i40 at 100

[Vol4Life]

GfS looks good so far through 114

[Mrwolf1972]

Staying all snow above the state line gonna be big numbers. 

[Scottie16]

Already dropped nearly 2 foot before this.


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[Mrwolf1972]

Some mix around Athens south rest snow state wide. At 122

[Mrwolf1972]

I'll take this run let's. Lock this in. 

[Vol4Life]

At 126, still snowing and the LP is located on the panhandle of FL