1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[John1122]

I think the Canadian is off it's rocker. It's amped up and throwing out 4+ inches of frozen QPF in spots. It gives me 2.5 inches of QPF as sleet. That would be 7.5 inches of sleet. Then it caps it off with an inch of freezing rain. 

[Vol4Life]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

I think the Canadian is off it's rocker. It's amped up and throwing out 4+ inches of frozen QPF in spots. It gives me 2.5 inches of QPF as sleet. That would be 7.5 inches of sleet. Then it caps it off with an inch of freezing rain. 

I agree.  It is certainly the outlier from a qpf, storm track, and temp perspective 

[TellicoWx]

Just now, John1122 said:

I think the Canadian is off it's rocker. It's amped up and throwing out 4+ inches of frozen QPF in spots. It gives me 2.5 inches of QPF as sleet. That would be 7.5 inches of sleet. Then it caps it off with an inch of freezing rain. 

Sharpy over west/middle TN was very wonky. Like temp blasted above 850 in just a hundred or so feet quite like I've never seen before.

[Scottie16]

Tellico, check out the GEFS. I’ll get a image soon


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[Wurbus]

Ukie looking good so far

[jaxjagman]

Seems like a outlier,it reels in the BAJA Low,only model showing this

[WintryMixmaster]

UKMET looks maybe a tick colder than 12z?

[Scottie16]

.

[Scottie16]

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Still seeing rising temps


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[Wurbus]

1 minute ago, Wurbus said:

Ukie looking good so far

Nevermind. Gets warm and gives most of us freezing rain and sleet

[Scottie16]

Still seeing rising temps


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I’m off the gin. I meant QPF. Sorry fellas


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[Wurbus]

GEFS has beefy snow mean for East TN. 8-10" from Knox to tri cities.

[WintryMixmaster]

2 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Nevermind. Gets warm and gives most of us freezing rain and sleet

It did look a little colder at all levels than 12z for a bit, but it looks like it sent a low west of the apps which turned us to rain and then back to sleet at the end. No big zone of freezing rain at least, unlike the CMC

[Wurbus]

Temps looked better on the AIGFS to me as well.

[TellicoWx]

850s def improved a little right along border...would be a big hitter snow wise

[TellicoWx]

14 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Tellico, check out the GEFS. I’ll get a image soon


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Definitely lending more support toward the Euro/GFS/Icon vs Ukie/GEM

[WintryMixmaster]

The 00z Ukie and even at 12z seems to have a more WSW-ENE orientation to the snow axis compared to the EURO/GFS which are more west to east. CMC though further north seems similar to the Ukie in terms of the orientation. Maybe related to the placement of the high pressure over Minnesota and how fast it presses southeast? Or something else about how the energy moves east from Baja?

Edit: Might just be a trick of the state boundaries on my eyes on the map, lol

[Reb]

Just now, WintryMixmaster said:

The 00z Ukie and even at 12z seems to have a more WSW-ENE orientation to the snow axis compared to the EURO/GFS which are more west to east. CMC though further north seems similar to the Ukie in terms of the orientation. Maybe related to the placement of the high pressure over Minnesota and how fast it presses southeast? Or something else about how the energy moves east from Baja?

The Baja is picked up/phased in more on the UKMET/CMC which packs the punch needed to split the high pressure and cut north. 

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, WintryMixmaster said:

The 00z Ukie and even at 12z seems to have a more WSW-ENE orientation to the snow axis compared to the EURO/GFS which are more west to east. CMC though further north seems similar to the Ukie in terms of the orientation. Maybe related to the placement of the high pressure over Minnesota and how fast it presses southeast? Or something else about how the energy moves east from Baja?

Just more amplification on surface LP...blasts 850 front way further north. If you want 2 models to be against you, those are the 2

[jaxjagman]

I didnt think the GEFS was that bad,most QPFS Its shown in TN that run

[TellicoWx]

With the Baja ejecting...we end up with a double moisture feed from the Gulf and the Pacific..if there is cyclogenisis (Ukie/GEM) the 850 winds (howling from south on those 2) are going to shove the 850 frontal right over top the low level arctic cold. A wave is only going to shove it right close to the southern border, 850 winds way weaker.

[Scottie16]

I didnt think the GEFS was that bad,most QPFS Its shown in TN that run

Was a great run honestly.


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[TellicoWx]

Big jump south on AIFs

[TellicoWx]

AIFs

[TellicoWx]

Never gets above freezing in Chatt with 2"+ QPF

[John1122]

Euro has a 1054 hp.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Canadian is very warm. 

Have they tinkered with it recently ? It was, up untill a couple weeks or so ago, always the coldest Model. Now, it seems it's totally opposite.

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Have they tinkered with it recently ? It was, up untill a couple weeks or so ago, always the coldest Model. Now, it seems it's totally opposite.

Not sure tbh

[TellicoWx]

Theme of 0z for most part seems to be a battle zone setting up at the southern border counties

[John1122]

Euro is going to be a monster again. 1.25 to 2 inches of QPF from Southern Kentucky to the Northern Alabama/Georgia area.