SE Crew - Cliff Diving

[NorthHillsWx]

Charlotte might be the jackpot in the whole state 

[ADB83]

Failing to see the science you said you were providing

I’m in Greensboro so I’m equally susceptible to the dry slot. I’m just not going to trust a model that has been this all over the place every run without more consistent guidance elsewhere.. I do know that there are some very good Meteorologists that also are seeing this potential but the HRRR which is clearly been drier than ground truth and the NAM, which has been bipolar today are not gonna be sending me off the cliff. At least not yet


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[NorthHillsWx]

If WRAL scores the coup here they’ll never let us live it down 

[ADB83]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Charlotte might be the jackpot in the whole state 

I think East Central North Carolina coastal plain can do really well, but if you’re looking for your most reliable spot that’s gonna hit it has to be Charlotte which is wild to say


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[NorthHillsWx]

I love how everyone thought WRAL started too low with 3-6” now everyone’s praying for 3-6” 

[KChuck]

11 minutes ago, RaleighNC said:

might as well just post random modern art and call it a map 

You mean some didn't? 

[NorthHillsWx]

I stayed away from models most of the day until this evening. Just tried to enjoy the buildup to the storm. Then come back to the 18z suite and see multiple cams dropping less than 1” here and euro gone to hell. Just cannot have nice things 

[kvegas-wx]

Hmmm....lotta folks be waking up early tomorrow to nothing.  Slower arrival, lighter QPF, more pronounced dry slot.  I foresee the page count in here elevating quickly.  The deja vu is real.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

Hmmm....lotta folks be waking up early tomorrow to nothing.  Slower arrival, lighter QPF, more pronounced dry slot.  I foresee the page count in here elevating quickly.  The deja vu is real.

Oh it’s gonna be carnage. Hopium will rapidly expire when folks wake up to bare ground 

[NorthHillsWx]

The goalposts for this storm have gone from major possibly historic to barely cracking warning criteria 

[USCG RS]

If we truly do bust like this... That would be wild 

[lilj4425]

Just now, USCG RS said:

If we truly do bust like this... That would be wild 

I could never show my face in here again. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Crash out complete. Going to pour the bourbon I’d been saving for when we cracked 6”

[SouthCentralWakeCo]

I might have to blame this bust on Brick’s disappearance. Brick vanished when needed most

[USCG RS]

9 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I could never show my face in here again. 

I'm a literal risk manager... Two major busts in a row for warning.. Boy who cried wolf... 

Granted... I'm not cliff diving rn. 

Also. I've made some big calls and busted in forums before. I just keep my fridge stocked with Crowe and show back up. But some would say I'm a glutten for punishment. And by some I mean all. 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Oh boy this thread is hot.....

 

Haven't had a chance to catch up on the past few hours but thats not a good sign 

[AirNelson39]

Just think about the sanity brick preserved by sitting this one out. He’s the real winner this time.

[RaleighNC]

Someone is gonna sue the modelers.

[kvegas-wx]

1 minute ago, AirNelson39 said:

Just think about the sanity brick preserved by sitting this one out. He’s the real winner this time.

He's not sitting this one out.  He's just whining and dropping Brick-isms over on the renegade board.  He'll be back.

[SouthCentralWakeCo]

2 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

Just think about the sanity brick preserved by sitting this one out. He’s the real winner this time.

For sure. A bit embarrassed I fully bought in for a 2nd week in a row. Fool me twice, shame on me

[NC US Geological Survice]

Yesterday's 12z Euro was a warning; we had signals almost 36 hrs ago of the western and eastern divide. Seems like shorter-range models just now resolved that cleavage, leaving us in the Triangle north (high) and dry. It was out there, and I was thinking 3" might be more realistic than 8, but I never thought less than 2.

[JoshM]

Doing fine over here 

[Dunkman]

It’s gonna be hilarious if there’s no real dry spot and the NWS models are even more worthless than we thought.

[USCG RS]

At this point... Btw... We might as well just let the storm play out and see what happens. 

[gwlee7]

While I don’t live in Rocky Mount (NC) anymore, I was there for some epic busts.   What was the name of that thread that performed an “autopsy” on one of the more major ones?  It listed all the ways that the models were wrong, and laid how we (people in the SE) should prepare to be perpetually disappointed.   

[Upstate Tiger]

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Turning this into the sanitarium. 

 

Good lord with the people asking to post maps and asking for PBP CONSTANTLY are so annoying at this point holy crap. 

[NorthHillsWx]

I’m going to deliver one of the greatest rants of all time tomorrow when I wake up and Raleigh is legitimately getting blanked. It will be epic, it will be my life’s work. 

[sinterpol]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m going to deliver one of the greatest rants of all time tomorrow when I wake up and Raleigh is legitimately getting blanked. It will be epic, it will be my life’s work. 

I'm going to play in traffic. 

[USCG RS]

Just now, sinterpol said:

I'm going to play in traffic. 

Remember, get hit by the expensive cars only. Better likelihood at a payout